Catching the completion wave David Scott – Ministry of Education The growing evidence on attrition in New Zealand's tertiary education system 2006 ATEM Conference Tauranga, 3-4 July 2006

Introduction Government, institutions and students all have a stake. Need to improve study outcomes for many. Need to get good value for money. Policy shift from emphasis on participation to outcomes. Funding changes. Historically, lack of data hampered our understanding. Retention and completion in tertiary education - an important policy issue - currently receiving a lot of attention

Improving data Introduction of National Student Numbers in Collection of course completion data from Development of regular national statistics on qualification completion and attrition rates, through linked data. These have led to a growing range of publications and statistics available on the new MoE ‘Education Counts’ website launched in Three key recent developments have had a significant impact on national retention and completion information:

What does this data tell us 46% of students who start a bachelors degree complete it after 6 years. National completion rates for sub-degree qualifications are between 30% and 40%. Completion rates for postgraduate qualifications are between 50% and 60%. More on this later….. Qualification completion

48% of bachelors students leave without completing. A quarter of students starting a degree leave in their first year. For sub-degree certificates and diplomas around 43% leave in the first year. Over 60% will eventually leave without gaining the qualification they started. 30% of certificate non-completers leave in the first 3 to 4 weeks. What does this data tell us? Attrition

Considerations Many students gain qualifications at a higher or lower level than that at which they started. Many students enrol and successfully complete courses, without necessarily having a qualification goal in mind. (around 10% in the US). Course completion rates are over 70%. In Australia, one study estimates 29% of TAFE students pass all their courses without gaining a qualification. More on this later……

Current picture Rates are higher for universities and colleges of education and lower for polytechnics. Diploma completion for wānanga students is higher than other institution types. Full-time students do much better than part-time. Intramural (internal) students do much better than extramural. At bachelors level, health and education students do better than those in science and IT degrees.

Current picture Completion rates for degree and above are similar for European and Asian students, and both are higher than for Māori and Pasifika. Although at sub-degree level rates are similar. While younger students have higher completion rates than older students, once you adjust for differences (eg part- time study) – older students do better. Rates are higher for women, but gap reduces at higher levels. International students do better than domestic.

Progression Around 16% of students progress to higher qualifications in the year after completion. 20% for sub-degree students in public providers – 14% for bachelors graduates – 6% for masters graduates. Between 25% and 30% return to higher level study within 6 years. In total, some 38% of graduates continued study (at same, higher, or lower levels) in the year following completion. Māori progression rates higher than overall sector rate.

Average time in study

Departure points for bachelors study

How do we compare? “Education is too important to us to allow large numbers of young people to wander aimlessly around the system using up resources and putting themselves into debt, and having no completed qualification to show for it” Michael Cullen April “The national rate of student departure from [US] colleges and universities has remained constant at 45% for over one hundred years.” Vincent Tinto In 1960, the completion rate for bachelors degrees in NZ after four or five years was about 40 percent. in “the University of New Zealand” In assessing the fact that 47% of students had left after 5 years without completing their bachelors degree…..

How do we compare? Course rates are higher than qualification rates. System rates are higher than institution rates. Students can complete different qualifications and at different levels from those they started at. Part-time and full-time. First-time and returning students. Differences in provision mix and student mix. Differences in country systems. Definitions matter – Comparing like with like

How do we compare? 6-year qualification completion rate: –All institutions all levels – 43% –Bachelors degree – 46% –Full-time Bachelors degree – for those studying at 0.8 EFTS or more per year – 72% First-year attrition rate: – Sub-degree: over 40% – Bachelors: 25% – All levels: 33% Some NZ figures

How do we compare Australia has a published 6-year completion rate at universities for all awards of around 60%, and 70% for full- time students. Higher than NZ (43% for all quals, 46% bachelors), but full-time rate similar (72%). System differences: entry, and more full-time, non-TAFE. First-year attrition rate for 3-year undergraduate quals is 22%, similar to NZ’s 25%. With Australia?

How do we compare All institutions all levels – 45% (NZ – 43%). Bachelors degree – any institution 55% (NZ – 46%). Bachelors degree – any institution for those whose goal was a degree – 63%. Bachelors degree – any institution for those whose goal was a degree full-time for first-year – 66% (NZ – 72% all). With the United States? US has open system as in NZ, but bachelors degrees are 4 years, and 67% are under 20 compared with <20% in NZ.

How do we compare For first-time full-time students starting degrees: 10% do not continue into second year (compared with 10% for full-time NZ starters – 25% for both part-time and full- time). 77% are projected to complete a degree (compared with 72% in NZ after 6 years). With Britain?

Questions the data can help with How many students complete a different qualification to the one they started? Or transfer to other institutions? Does this make a difference to your chances of completing? At what rate do students complete courses as opposed to qualifications? How many students, for example, pass all of their courses, but do not gain a qualification? How do we compare internationally? Issues of definitions and comparability. What will the impact of funding changes (such as PBRF) be on completion? Does borrowing make a difference to completion?

Other questions remain How do we balance strategies that enable or maintain such access with those that improve achievement? How should we shape strategies for retention and progression, given the diversity in students, provision, and in the pathway goals for these students? How should any strategies for sub-degree students differ from degree-level students? Our biggest gains in improving access to tertiary education have largely been in areas which, in general, have significantly lower rates of completion (such as part-time students, sub-degree level study).

References New Zealand’s Tertiary Education Sector Report, Profile and Trends. What factors make a difference to getting a degree in New Zealand? How long do people spend in tertiary education? Retention, Completion and Progression in Tertiary Education Pathways in Tertiary Education Impact of Student Support Services and Academic Development Programmes on Student Outcomes in Undergraduate Tertiary Study. Student Decision-Making by Prospective Tertiary Students.