BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE Education, Careers, and American Society

333 Competency Urgently Needed  Rapid pace of change in the global economy and in the American workplace. Higher levels of knowledge and skills needed to succeed in today’s workplace.  Increasing need for mathematics, science and technology in everyday decision-making.  Inextricably linked to nation’s security interests.  The intrinsic value of mathematical, scientific, and technological knowledge shape and define our common life, history, and culture.

444 Fewer unskilled jobs, More higher skilled jobs Source: U.S. Bureau of Census and PA Department of Labor and Industry, Center for Workforce Information and Analysis (PA statewide) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Professional Skilled Unskilled 16% 73% 10% 30% 47% 23% 40% 19%

555 Jobs require more education than before -23% -9% +16% Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna M. Desrochers, Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K–16 Reform, ETS, Change in the distribution of education in jobs 1973 v % 32% 16% +16% 40% 12%

666 Workplace Requires > HS Diploma Jobs that require at least some post-secondary education will make up more than two-thirds of new jobs. Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna M. Desrochers, Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K–16 Reform, ETS, 2003.

777 Opportune Time for Progress  Education reform has the attention of the American public.  There are resources to invest in education.  Much has been learned about ways to improve math and science achievement.  A coming demographic shift will result in the retirement of two-thirds of the teaching force.

888 Framework for Presentation  How effective is K-12 education?  How effective is K-12 mathematics and science education?  What is the impact of technology?

999 Education Overview  How effective is K-12 education? Are students completing their education? Are they learning what they need?

10 On-time high school graduation, 2002 Source: Manhattan Institute, Public High School Graduation and College-Readiness Rates: 1991–2002, February 2005, 52% 56% 78% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% LatinoAfrican AmericanWhite Percentage of 9th grade students

11 Leaks in the Education Pipeline Source: National Center for Public Policy & Higher Education, Policy Alert, April Data are estimates of pipeline progress rather than actual cohort. 68% 40% 27% 18% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Graduate high school Start collegePersist 2nd year Earn degree Percentage of 9th grade students

12 Pipeline: Of 100 students  Graduate from High School on Time National Average 68 Idaho 77 Montana 77 Oregon 69 Washington68 Wyoming 73 Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Policy Alert, April 2004

13 Pipeline (Continued)  Immediately Enter College National Average 40 Idaho 34 Montana 41 Oregon 33 Washington30 Wyoming 38 Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Policy Alert, April 2004

14 Pipeline (Continued)  Still enrolled in Sophomore Year National Average 27 Idaho 22 Montana 27 Oregon 23 Washington22 Wyoming 23 Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Policy Alert, April 2004

15 Pipeline (Continued)  Graduate College on Time National Average 18 Idaho 14 Montana 17 Oregon 15 Washington15 Wyoming 20 Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Policy Alert, April 2004

16 High school graduation rate: US trailing Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2004, 2004.

17 HS Graduates’ Lack of Preparation Average estimated proportions of recent high school graduates who are not prepared Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies, Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? prepared for Achieve, Inc., % 45% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% High school graduates not prepared for college-level classes High school graduates not prepared to advance beyond entry-level jobs

18 Meaningful HS Diploma Source: Achieve Survey/Research, 2006.

19 College Bound ≠ College Ready Nearly three in 10 first-year students are placed immediately into a remedial college course. Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000, % 22% 14% 11% 0%20%40%60% Reading, writing or math Math Writing Reading

20 Remediation ≠ Graduation Many college students who need remediation especially in reading and math, do not earn either an associate’s or a bachelor’s degree. Percentage not earning degree by type of remedial coursework Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Condition of Education, % 63% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Remedial readingRemedial math Percentage of college students

21 HS Course-taking Narrows the Gap *Completing at least Algebra II plus other courses. Source: Adapted from Adelman, Clifford, U.S. Department of Education, Answers in the Toolbox, % 13%

22 United States China Japan European Union India Strongest Economic Power Today China United States India European Union Japan Strongest Economic Power in Years Public Opinion Research by:

23 Math and Science Education  How effective is K-12 math and science education? Test scores? Teacher quality? Majors?

24 Idaho/National Average Test Scores

25 Idaho/National Education Indicators

NAEP: Mathematics (National)  Mathematics performance improved for the nation, for the majority of states, and for many student groups.  Fourth-graders’ average score was 3 points higher and eighth-graders’ average score was 1 point higher in 2005 than in 2003, on a 0 to 500 point scale.

NAEP: Mathematics (State)  Average scores at grade 4 increased in 31 states. The percentage of students performing at or above Basic increased in 23 states and the District of Columbia.  At grade 8, 7 states had higher average scores in 2005 than in The percentage of students performing at or above Basic increased in 5 states.  Good enough?

NAEP: Mathematics (Idaho) In Grade 4  86% scored at or above Basic  40% scored at or above Proficient  5% scored at or above Advanced In Grade 8  73% scored at or above Basic  30% scored at or above Proficient  5% scored at or above Advanced

NAEP: Science (National)  At grade 4, the average science score was higher in 2005 than in previous assessment years.  At grade 8, the average science score in 2005 showed no significant change compared to results in 1996 and  At grade 12, the average science score was lower than in 1996, and showed no significant change from 2000.

NAEP: Science (States) Since 2000  9 states improved at Grade 4  11 states improved and 4 declined at Grade 8  5 states improved at both grades.  Idaho had no significant difference at either grade.

31 Well-prepared Teachers? Percentage of teachers with major in main subject taught, grades English78%70% Mathematics72%67% Science74%75% Social Studies80%78% Source: US Department of Education, School and Staffing Survey

32 Well-prepared teachers? (Continued) Source: Richard Ingersoll, Out-of-Field Teaching and the Limits of Teacher Policy, CPRE, % 41.5% 48.9% 47.1% 0%20%40%60% Social Studies Science Mathematics English 7-12 Teachers who lack major, certification or both

33 Uneven Teacher Quality Distribution  In high poverty schools, 40% of teachers do not have even a minor in mathematics.  In the remaining schools, 28% of teachers do not have even a minor in mathematics.  In high poverty schools, 20% of teachers do not have even a minor in science.  In the remaining schools, 14% of teachers do not have even a minor in science.

34 Flat STEM Bachelor Degree Production

35 US STEM Talent Pool Compared

36 What is Your Greatest Concern? US K-12 student performance in math and science lags behind other countries Far fewer US college students earn science & engineering degrees than students worldwide Technical jobs are growing 5 times faster than others; less than 15% of US students take scientific/technical courses Half the engineering, math, computer science doctoral students in US are born in other countries 23% 12% 18% 22% 14% 24% 36% 28% Opinion Leaders Voters

37 Reluctance To Influence Choices: Allow child to pursue whatever career path he/she feels suits best Encourage child to pursue career in science, tech, engineering, math but balance with child’s preference Try to persuade child toward career in science, tech, engineering, math Jobs requiring technical training – in science, technology, engineering, and math – are growing five times faster than other occupations. Which approach would you take with your child/a child you’re close to about career choices?

38 Confluence of Education and Workplace  What is the impact of technology?

39 Technology is Changing Workplace  Computers are able to perform more efficiently than humans in a limited and well-defined set of tasks, predominantly those that involve repetitive cognitive and manual activity.  Computers complement activities requiring non- routine problem-solving and interactive tasks.  The task content of human employment is changing with more demand for non-routine problem-solving. Source: Autor, D. Levy, F. and Murnane, R. The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. 2003

40 Technology is Changing Job Tasks Source: Autor, D. Levy, F. and Murnane, R. The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. 2003

41 Business is A Key Player  Business community has a lot of political influence Respected as a honest broker focused on results without the ‘baggage’ of education interest groups. Along with higher education, viewed as a customer for the education pipeline  Business has its own point of view Along with knowledge and citizenship, education should provide workforce preparation Experience in setting and reaching incremental goals