Business Forecasting Skills needed to become a business & economic forecaster –Economic knowledge –Statistics –Computer applications –Communication Forecasting.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Making public expenditure pro-poor CAPE Workshop 14 May 2004.

Advertisements

Design of Experiments Lecture I

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 5S Decision Theory.

Defining activities – Activity list containing activity name, identifier, attributes, and brief description Sequencing activities – determining the dependencies.

Topic 2. DECISION-MAKING TOOLS

Perception and Individual Decision Making

Process Improvement.

The Comparison of the Software Cost Estimating Methods

Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-Hall Chapter Chapter 4: Modeling Decision Processes Decision Support Systems in the.

Operations Management Decision-Making Tools Module A

Chapter 12 - Forecasting Forecasting is important in the business decision-making process in which a current choice or decision has future implications:

© 2002 McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., McGraw-Hill/Irwin TURNING MARKETING INFORMATION INTO ACTION.

Model Building and Simulation Chapter 43 Research Methodologies.

Why forecasting? Understanding future possibilities. Understanding the possible changes in business conditions. Learning how to cope with the possible.

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO ENGINEERING ECONOMY WHAT IS ECONOMICS ? The study of: –How to allocate resources effficiently to satisfy unlimited human wants.

Copyright c 2006 Oxford University Press 1 Chapter 7 Solving Problems and Making Decisions Problem solving is the communication that analyzes the problem.

Applied Business Forecasting and Planning

Science and Engineering Practices

Business Forecasting Chapter 5 Forecasting with Smoothing Techniques.

Chapter 2 Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques

Management Definition, Nature, Importance And Functions of Management Presented By: Tanu Chadha.

INTRODUCTION TO ENGINEERING ECONOMY

Estimating Potentials and Forecasting Sales

TURNING MARKETING INFORMATION INTO ACTION

20041 CE Management and Planning Diane Bishton – K229 Planning & Forecasting - Nature & purpose.

Forecasting Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill.

EXAMING SOCIAL LIFE Social sciences are disciplines that study human social behavior or institutions and functions of human society. Social interaction.

Transparency Masters to accompany Heizer/Render – Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations Management, 7e © 2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc.,

PowerPoint presentation to accompany Operations Management, 6E (Heizer & Render) © 2001 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J A-1 Operations.

Centro de Estudos e Sistemas Avançados do Recife PMBOK - Chapter 4 Project Integration Management.

To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna Forecasting.

S7: Audit Planning. Session Objectives To explain the need for planning To explain the need for planning To outline the essential elements of planning.

Evidence-based policies and indicator systems 2006 Conducting effective research and analysis to support policy delivery. The Green Book: Appraisal and.

Defining the Marketing Research Problem and Developing an Approach

Audit Planning. Session Objectives To explain the need for planning To outline the essential elements of planning process To finalise the audit approach.

Chapter 5: Conceptual Framework for Accounting and Reporting, and Accounting Standards.

© 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chapter 7 Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain Supply Chain Management (2nd Edition) 7-1.

Vocabulary 1 Research Process. 1. Problem definition: the purpose of the study should be taken into account; the relevant background info; what info is.

LECTURE 1 - SCOPE, OBJECTIVES AND METHODS OF DISCIPLINE "ECONOMETRICS"

Chapter Thirteen Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Sample Size Determination.

© Farhan Mir 2007 IMS Management Thoughts & Practices MBA & BBA Lecture 6 (Decision Making the Essence of Managerial Job) By: Farhan Mir.

Market Research & Product Management.

Quantitative Techniques. QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH TECHNIQUES Quantitative Research Techniques are used to quantify the size, distribution, and association.

Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting. Nature of Risk Risk exists because of the inability of the decision-maker to make perfect forecasts. the risk associated.

Making knowledge work harder Process Improvement.

ECONOMICS OF TRAVEL &TOURISM

DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING VII-SEMESTER PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY-II 1 CHAPTER NO.4 FORECASTING.

Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events.

(6) Estimating Computer’s efficiency Software Estimation The objective of Software Estimation is to provide the skills needed to accurately predict the.

Marakas: Decision Support Systems, 2nd Edition © 2003, Prentice-Hall Chapter Chapter 4: Modeling Decision Processes Decision Support Systems in the.

Business Forecasting. Used to try to predict the future Uses two main methods: Qualitative – seeking opinions on which to base decision making – Consumer.

Assignable variation Deviations with a specific cause or source. forecast bias or assignable variation or MSE? Click here for Hint.

Demand Management and Forecasting Chapter 11 Portions Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

Forecas ting Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill.

P5 : Advanced Performance Management. B1: External Influences on Organisational Performance B1. Changing business environment B2. Impact of external factors.

Introduction Statistics Introduction Origin Meaning

Engineering Economics Chapter 1 Engineering Decision Making Copyright © 2013 Pearson Canada Inc

United Nations Statistics Division Overview of handbook on cyclical composite indicators Expert Group Meeting on Short-Term Economic Statistics in Western.

Chapter 11 – With Woodruff Modications Demand Management and Forecasting Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

T T18-02 Weighted Moving Average Forecast Purpose Allows the analyst to create and analyze the "Weighted Moving Average" forecast for up to 5.

Chapter 9 Forecasting Copyright 2015 Health Administration Press.

MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS is a social science that helps to explain how resources such as labor, capital, land and money can be allocated efficiently.

Sample Size Determination

Managing Short-Term Assets

Forecasting Elements of good forecast Accurate Timely Reliable

Systems Development Life Cycle

RESEARCH BASICS What is research?.

Unit 1 Lesson 2 Exploring Information and Influences.

Presentation transcript:

Business Forecasting Skills needed to become a business & economic forecaster –Economic knowledge –Statistics –Computer applications –Communication Forecasting as an art, as well as a science

Decision Making The goal of the forecaster is to provide information for decision making Purpose is to reduce the range of uncertainty about the future Demand for forecasters is derived based on their final use Three elements in common are (1) time, (2) uncertainty, and (3) reliance on statistical analysis, primarily of historical data. Planning and forecasting are complementary, not substitutes

The Forecasting Process 1.Determine the purpose or objective of the forecast 2.Select the relevant theoretical model (identify influences, classify as internal or external, and identify possible constraints) 3.Collect data 4.Analyze data (Data analysis often determines model choice.) 5.Estimate the original model (You may initially select for comparison more than one technique.) 6.Evaluate the model and revise 7.Present initial forecast to decision makers 8.Make the final revision 9.Distribute the forecast 10.Establish monitoring procedures

Business Cycle: Past and Present Theories of the business cycle Wesley Clair Mitchell and the NBER NBER recession dating procedure Recent U.S. economic performance

Forecasting Tips Consensus forecasts are nothing more than averages. Study extremely optimistic and pessimistic forecasts for information. Forecasts are always wrong, be able to explain why. Focus a forecast on a range rather than a single point. Develop tools to monitor forecast performance over time. Simple models are preferred over complex models (cost/benefit analysis). Understand and be able to explain your forecast procedure to decision makers. Be especially on the lookout for exogenous forces that influence your forecasts and even lead to turning point errors. Be humble; your forecast is to help decision makers and is not an end in itself.