Ham Fair K9LA Solar Cycle 23 and Early Predictions for Solar Cycle 24 Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA

Ham Fair K9LA Cycle 23 Maximum smoothed sunspot number of 121 in early 2000 we are here Secondary peak in late 2001 –Great 6m F2 DX! Minimum expected in late 2006 / early 2007 We’re about a year and a half from solar minimum solar minimum

Ham Fair K9LA The High Bands: 10m, 12m, 15m At solar minimum, F2 openings on 15m to NA and EU will be of short duration data from ARRL Antenna Book CD At solar minimum, no openings on 10m predicted to NA and EU If 15m is open, check 12m winter month

Ham Fair K9LA 17m – A Good Place for a Band Prior to the WARC band allocations, 20m was the workhorse band for long haul DXing around solar minimum predictions for JA to indicated area (December around solar minimum) G UTC (low probability) I UTC W2no opening WØ UTC (low probability) W UTC PY UTC LU UTC HZ UTC VK UTC CN UTC (low probability) ZS UTC data from W6ELProp Working Peter I on 17m 3Y0X Feb UTC Get on 17m! 17m has the long haul characteristics of 15m, but the MUF need not be as high

Ham Fair K9LA 80m and 160m Geomagnetic field activity is quietest at and a couple years after solar minimum quietest data from K9LA Most severe impact is to paths that go to high latitudes (those through and near the auroral oval) –JA to WØ –JA to W1, W2, W3

Ham Fair K9LA 30m and 40m Propagation on 160m and 80m is dependent on absorption Propagation on 20m, 17m, 15m, 12m, and 10m is dependent on MUF (maximum usable frequency) 30m and 40m are transition bands – not as dependent on absorption and not as dependent on MUF –Of all the bands, they probably change the least over a solar cycle

Ham Fair K9LA Things To Do At Solar Minimum Watch for north-south paths on the higher bands Monitor the Sun for unusual sunspot activity that could help the higher bands sec.noaa.gov, spaceweather.com, etc Participate in contests Get on the low bands

Ham Fair K9LA All Recorded Solar Cycles Data is cyclic in nature We’ve lived through the highest recorded solar cycles It sure looks like we’re headed for an extended period of low solar cycles our lifetime

Ham Fair K9LA Cycle 24 Prediction As Cycle 23 winds down, we’re seeing more and more predictions from the scientific community from Schatten Most predict that Cycle 24 will be no greater than Cycle 23 Some are even predicting a maximum smoothed sunspot number of around 75 –Haven’t seen anything that low since Cycle 16 (1923 – 1933)

Ham Fair K9LA Summary About a year and a half from solar minimum Stay active on the higher bands –Watch for sporadic E and north-south F2 propagation –Monitor solar activity for unusual sunspot activity –Participate in contests Get your low band station ready –2006, 2007, and 2008 should be good years