The need for a ” The need for a ”Spectrum of conflict”

French Doctrine Spectrum of conflict

NATO Doctrine Spectrum of conflict

USA: FM 3-0 Operations 2008

British defence doctrine 2008

High intensity ”Total war” Crisis Collaps of society Low intensity ”Limited war” Building society Importance Maneuvre warfare Comprehensive approach MSD 02 MSD 12 Military victory Civilian developement Regular warfare Irregular warfare The new Swedish military strategic doctrine will incooperate a wide spectrum of conflict

The Swedish spectrum of conflict to handle regular war, crisis, irregular war etc Purpose: Understand the conflict in order to apply military power in the right way A presentation of

Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Swedish spectrum of conflict Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence

Regular war ”Cold war” Stability by balance of power Character Military crisis Instability Failing state Irregular war Hybride war Humanitarian crisis Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence

Crisis USSR sub 81 Kosovo now Northern Afghanistan Southern Aghanistan W W 2 Korea after the war Somalia Central-African Republic ? Bosnia 93 Lebanon 2006 Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence

Future Scenarios Non-cooperative Co-operative States I. Multipolar great powers and power blocs economic and political rivalry protectionism III. Fragmentation globalisation stagnates social insecurity identity plays key role II. Multilateral strong position of the West alongside emergence of BRIC global governance reformed ongoing globalisation IV. Network non-polar world order global market economy and civil society inherent unpredictability Various actors This picture is from the Netherlands long term planning studies

Guerilla Phase 1 Guerilla war phase 2 Guerilla war phase 3 To describe a conflict Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence

Deter Influence Purposes for use of military power Defend Defeat Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence Coerce

DefendGard Prevent Generic Military strategic goals Protect Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence

Defend swedish territory Detect and reject Enhance our security by global military engagement GenericTasks Defend / Protect Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence

Full Spectrum Operations Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence Perfect ! OK ! Maybe… ? Useless ? Stealth robot corvette Visby

Full Spectrum Operations Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence Perfect ! OK ! Maybe……. Useless ?

Full Spectrum Operations Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence Intel Fires Mobility Sustainment C2 Protection Intel Fires Mobility Sustainment C2 Protection Intel Fires Mobility Sustainment C2 Protection Intel Fires Mobility Sustainment C2 Protection

Heavy and slow Agile and fast short range / thirsty Long range / can be filled with cans Propulsion is given priority

Full Spectrum Operations OffDef OffDef Off Def Stab Off Def Stab Off Def Stab Clear Hold Build o Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence

Maneuvre warfareDiplomacy and show of force Comprehensive Approach Methods Endure attrition CLEAR – HOLD – BUILD ? Regular war High state involvement (state on state) Irregular war Low involvement from state (stateless) Permissive environment Low intense violence Non permissive environment Intense violence

Discussion Does Georgia have a spectrum of conflict ? How do you feel about the Swedish spectrum of conflict ? Why is it important to understand the spectrum of conflict ? Where in the spectrum would you place: conflict with Russia ? conflict with Russia ? - Todays relation to Russia ? - Todays relation to Russia ? - Your involment in Afghanistan ? - Your involment in Afghanistan ?