Chesapeake Bay TMDL May 13, NPS/TMDL/WQM States Meeting Martinsburg, West Virginia Jennifer Sincock U.S. EPA Region 3 Water Protection Division

2 Portrait of an Ecosystem

3 Where are the Bay WQ Impacts?

4 Pollutant Sources to the Bay

5 Data and Methods: Note: Some jurisdictions may be underreporting existing stormwater management practices. How are we doing?

6 6 The science behind the TMDLs Watershed Model Bay Model Land Use Change Model Airshed Model Criteria Assessment Procedures

7 Whats the Scope of the Bay TMDL? TMDL will establish loads for all Bay states Nutrients, sediments Oxygen, clarity/Bay grasses, algae All impaired tidal water segments All sources –Point source control thru NPDES –NPS implementation thru 319 funding

8 Not one bay TMDL but (as many as) 92 segment TMDLs

9 Impaired Segment TMDLs EPA Regulations require TMDLs for each impaired Water Quality Limited Segment TMDL SD = WLA SD + LA SD + MOS TMDL SD = Segment Drainage TMDL WLA SD = WLA from Segment Drainage LA SD = LA from Segment Drainage MOS = Margin of Safety (implicit)

10 Segment Drainages for Impaired Segment TMDLs Potomac Tidal Fresh (POTTF) Potomac Oligohaline (POTOH)

11 Wasteload Allocation For Tidal Fresh Segments: WLA SD = individual WLAs (tidal state) + Gross WLA (nontidal state) Other Segments: WLA SD = individual WLAs (tidal state) Determined by each states Implementation Plan development process and could include: POTWIndustrial Stormwater MS4sNon-significant permits Others?

12 Load Allocation For Tidal Fresh Segments: LA SD = Source Sector LAs (tidal state) + Gross LA (nontidal state) Other Segments: LA SD = Source Sector LAs (tidal state) Source Sector LAs would be based on each states Implementation Plan development process and could include: AgricultureForest Other NPS Urban/Res/Road AtmosphericOthers?

13 Bay Cap The Bay Cap will be set for each pollutant (N, P, and sediment) to meet water quality standards at critical conditions (i.e. worst case scenarios) for the entire Bay as well as localized impairments. Bay Cap = Bay Impaired Segment TMDLs + Bay Unimpaired Segment Loads (i.e., The Bay Cap based on 2003 Allocations would be 175 MPY for N and 12.8 MPY for P)

14 Basin-jurisdiction Caps Maryland Delaware New York District of Columbia West Virginia Pennsylvania Virginia

Preliminary Draft Allocations July/August 2009

Iterative Draft Allocations

TMDL Allocations December 2010

18 Building the Chesapeake Bay Nutrient TMDLs Determine the Bay cap load Allocate the Bay cap load to basin-jurisdictions Sub-allocate the basin-jurisdiction loads to sources in state implementation plans Determine which source loads go into each impaired segment Establish the TMDL for each impaired segment

A TMDL is not enough! Set Biennial Milestones for closing identified program gaps Contingencies by States if milestones fall short Identify Program Gaps between needed controls and existing program capacity Monitor Effectiveness to assess implementation actions Employ Consequences by EPA if appropriate progress is not being made Establish Chesapeake Bay TMDL: Set total nutrient and sediment caps Wasteload and load allocations Revise Implementation plans Identifying the nutrient and sediment controls needed to meet the Basin caps Evaluate Program capacity (programmatic, funding, technical) to fully implement tributary strategies

20 Consequences/ Contingencies

21 How does it all fit? System/ProcessQuestionDocument AccountingWhat loads to achieve? Bay Cap load, J-B cap loads, segment TMDLs PlanningWhat controls are needed (e.g. BMPs) State Implementation Plans ImplementationWhat is the program delivery system? 2 year commitments

Bay Cap Load Susquehanna West Shore Ches. MD-DE Eastern Shore VA Eastern Shore Patuxent Potomac Rappa- hannock York James WV MD VADC PA Basin-jurisdiction allocations/ State Implementation Plans 2 year commitments

23 What we know? We need a bigger, better toolbox to reduce nutrients and sediments The tributary strategies level of effort is not enough to restore the bay The existing tributary strategies result in higher loadings than previously thought. -new hydrology -new BMP efficiencies

24 What we need to know… but dont know yet Sediment allocation process How much will it cost? What are the best enhancements to the existing nutrient and sediment control toolbox? Who pays?

25 Building a bigger toolbox Sources: Agriculture Air Developed and developing lands Wastewater Tools: Public funding Cap and trade Tax incentives Marketing program Corporate Stewardship Regulation Other?

26 Upcoming Deliverables from EPA Reasonable Assurance and Implementation Guidance –Staged Implementation Consequences if Milestones are not met Bay TMDL 101 public meetings Preliminary Draft Bay Cap and Basin-Jurisdiction Allocations

27 Bay TMDL Outreach Bay TMDL 101 public meetings (Summer 2009) Meetings with Stakeholders and Local Governments (ongoing) A River Runs To It (Summer 2009) –Visits throughout watershed to highlight best practices and present funds for projects EPA Bay TMDL Website (coming soon)

28 Whats on the road ahead? State Implementation Plan Development (May 2009 – May 2010) TMDL 101 public meetings (June – Sept. 2009) Preliminary Draft Bay Cap & Basin- Jurisdiction Allocations (July/Aug. 2009) Draft TMDL Public Notice/Public Meetings (June – Sept. 2010) Final TMDL Established (December 2010) Consent Decree deadline (May 1, 2011)

29 Coming Attractions Preliminary Draft Chesapeake Bay Cap Preliminary Draft Basin-Jurisdiction Allocations Two-year Milestones Commitment Challenge Dates Independent Evaluate Public Messages Communication Challenges

30 Executive Council Meeting May 12, 2009 Announce 2-year milestones Set Restoration End Date Executive Order

31 Milestones Guidelines Will focus strictly on Bay water quality restoration goal Jurisdiction-specific milestone outcomes can be rolled up into a single, basin-wide summary Milestone outcomes include: pounds reduced, acres implemented, adoption of new regulations, legislation, policies Account for implementation actions of all partners

32 Milestone Attributes First 2-year milestones will be from mid-2009 through end of 2011 Confirming we intend to develop milestones which are stretch goals but still attainable Accelerates past rates of implementation Milestones could include commitments to seek new regulations, enactment of new legislation/policies Translate or relate actions and resources to Bay water quality endpoints Measurable, trackable, reportable and related to the end goal (cap load allocations) Consistency across the 7 jurisdictions

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35 Watershed-wide 2011 Milestones Nitrogen –Additional 6.9 million pounds nitrogen reduced –77% increase over previous rate of reduction Phosphorus –Additional 463,948 pounds phosphorus reduced –79% increase over previous rate of reduction

36 A New Restoration End Date The date by which all the actions required to achieve the jurisdiction- specific and basinwide cap load allocations have been fully implemented on the ground No Later Than 2025

37 Executive Order Signed May 12, 2009 Chesapeake Bay declared a national treasure Directed Federal Agencies to make restoration a greater priority with the following key provisions: –Establishing a Bay Federal Leadership Committee –Directing EPA to use its CWA authorities to the maximum extent possible –Improving agricultural conservation practices and focusing financial support –Reducing water pollution from federal lands and facilities –Developing an interagency Chesapeake Bay Climate Change Strategy –Expanding public access to the Bay via Fed. property –Strengthening scientific support for decision-making

38 Funding American Recovery and Reinvestment Act –Provides hundreds of millions of dollars for projects that advance the cleanup of the Chesapeake Bay –Projects range from WWTP upgrades to green infrastructure projects Farm Bill –Additional $188 million over next four years for agricultural conservation projects to reduce pollution flowing into the Bay –Support nutrient management, cover crops, crop residue management, vegetative buffers, and other agricultural conservation practices

39 Accountability Two-year Milestones and Contingencies Chesapeake TMDL and Consequences Independent Evaluator Bay Barometer Adaptive Management –Monitor progress and adjust course if necessary

40 Further Information Chesapeake Bay Program Water Quality Steering Committee website px?menuitem=16618 EPA Region 3 Contacts –Water Protection Division Bob Koroncai Jennifer Sincock –Chesapeake Bay Program Rich Batiuk

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42 EPAs Draft Bay TMDL Framework States existing Chesapeake Bay WQS should not be relaxed based on feasibility Bay TMDLs must contain the LAs and WLAs necessary to achieve the states existing Chesapeake Bay WQS State Implementation Plans will be written to achieve the loadings assigned in the Bay TMDLs –Staged implementation is a possible option Wastewater discharge load requirements will continue to be set at the discretion of states An affordability assessment will be completed