Growth Solutions Strategies and Asset Classes Well-Positioned for Capital Appreciation
Derek Peterson - Moderator Senior Vice President, Walton Int’l Group J. David Kelsey Managing Principal, Hamilton Point Investments Bill Lehew Director of Strategic Accounts, Hines H. Michael Schwartz Chairman & CEO, Strategic Storage
Key Trends Population Growth Drives Demand for Development U.S. Population Growth Trend 1 Current United States population: 316 million 3 Population growth projected at approximately 3 million per year Population (Millions) Concentration of Growth 1U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, August 14, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the US Census.gov, Population Clock, August 8, National Association of Realtors, June 17, 2009, Presentation to Real Estate Caucus of U.S. Congress. 5Metropolitan Institute Census Report Series, Census Report 05:01, “Beyond Megalopolis: Exploring America’s new ‘ Megapolitan’ Geography” (Virginia Tech, May 2005) Over 70% of the United States population is projected to live in one of ten regions known as megapolitans by
Key Trends Home starts dropped to unprecedented levels Multi-Family Starts 2 Single-Family Starts 2 3 million more people each year 1 to 1.4 million household formations need to account for 300,000 demolitions need 1.3 to 1.7 million new units 1 *Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economics and Mortgage Market Analysis, October 10, National Association of Realtors, June 17, 2009; Presentation to Real Estate Caucus of U.S. Congress. 2 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, January 2011 and January
Key Trends Home starts dropped to unprecedented levels 3 million more people each year 1 to 1.4 million household formations need to account for 300,000 demolitions need 1.3 to 1.7 million new units 1 *Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economics and Mortgage Market Analysis, October 10, National Association of Realtors, June 17, 2009; Presentation to Real Estate Caucus of U.S. Congress. 2 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, January 2011 and January Multi-Family Starts 2 Single-Family Starts 2
Key Trends 1 U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, State Population Estimates 2000 – 2010, February U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Historical National Population , revised June 28, U.S. Census Bureau, National Housing Starts Annual Data 1959 – * Represents new privately owned housing units. 72% decrease in housing starts* from peak of 2.1 million to 587,000 7% increase in U.S. Population since 2003 from 290 million to 309 million Population 1 (000s) Housing Starts 2 (000s)
Key Trends LAND ABSORPTION PERMITS PEOPLE JOBS Determining Future Demand for Development
Top U.S. Employment Markets by Job Growth from Houston 440,800 2 Washington D.C. 361,000 3 Dallas-Fort Worth 255,000 4 Phoenix-Tucson 178,600 5 Inland Empire 163,200 6 New York 157,000 7 Austin 150,500 8 San Antonio 132,700 9 Orlando 130, Las Vegas 125, Miami 120, Nashville 88, Raleigh-Durham 85, Charlotte 80, Salt Lake City 75, Edinburg 71, Baltimore 67, San Diego 65, Seattle 63, Indianapolis 60,300 PERMITSPEOPLE JOBS LAND ABSORPTION Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, MSA Employment Ranking, Walton Target Markets Historical Trends: Job Growth
Top U.S. MSAs by Net Domestic Migration ( ) #1 Phoenix-Tucson586,019 #2 Inland Empire489,209 #3 Atlanta465,246 #4 Dallas-Fort Worth408,416 #5 Las Vegas316,937 #6 Houston305,492 #7 Austin295,232 #8 Tampa293,491 #9 Charlotte282,638 #10 Orlando258,381 #11 Raleigh-Durham220,584 #12 San Antonio217,874 #13 Nashville147,457 #14 Sacramento145,242 #15 Portland144,313 #16 Fort Myers143,853 #17 Jacksonville136,469 #18 Sarasota115,912 #19 Denver108,262 #20 Boise91,577 Walton Target Markets Historical Trends: Net Domestic Migration Source: U.S Census Bureau – Estimates of the Components of Population Change for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas: April 1, 2000– July 1, 2009; July 1, 2010 – July 1, 2011; July 1, 2011 – July 1, 2012 Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, Net Domestic Migration by MSA, April 2009-April 2010
Top U.S. MSAs by Population Growth From Dallas-Fort Worth 1,504,803 2 New York 1,479,115 3 Houston 1,437,621 4 Atlanta 1,175,926 5 Inland Empire 1,072,518 6 Phoenix-Tucson 1,050,873 7 Washington D.C 1,039,311 8 Charlotte 956,152 9 Miami 736, Sarasota 720, Los Angeles 653, Las Vegas 607, Austin 568, Orlando 566, San Antonio 514, Seattle 499, Denver 451, Minneapolis 440, Tampa 438, Nashville 409,113 PERMITSPEOPLE JOBS LAND ABSORPTION Walton Target Markets Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates for MSA ; US Census Bureau, Population Estimates for MSA Historical Trends: Population Growth
Top U.S. MSA by Average Annual U.S. Single-Family Permits Issued ( ) 1 Houston 450,992 2 Atlanta 443,398 3 Dallas-Fort Worth 398,359 4 Phoenix-Tucson 380,671 5 Chicago 278,009 6 Inland Empire 270,410 7 Washington D.C. 250,775 8 Las Vegas 220,526 9 New York 215, Orlando 186, Tampa 167, Charlotte 167, Seattle 156, Miami 152, Denver 152, Minneapolis 149, Philadelphia 149, Los Angeles 147, Austin 141, Detroit 131,726 Walton Target Markets Source: US Census Bureau, Building Permits by Metropolitan Statistical Area – Annualized PERMITSPEOPLE JOBS LAND ABSORPTION Historical Trends: Single Family Permits
Real Estate Life Cycle Most competitive capital Least competitive capital
MultiFamily Multifamily Fundamentals Are Solid Source: REIS ReportsSource: Freddie Mac HAMILTON POINT INVESTMENTS
MultiFamily Source: US Census Bureau HAMILTON POINT INVESTMENTS Overall U.S. Supply/Demand in Equilibrium
MultiFamily Individual Markets Still Hold Opportunity! Source: Moody’s/RCA CPPI Source:: CoStar Group, Inc. HAMILTON POINT INVESTMENTS
Storage Self Storage Market Trends Source: Cushman & Wakefield Presentation – Self Storage: the State of the Industry H. Michael Schwartz President, CEO
Self Storage Supply Growth H. Michael Schwartz President, CEO
Derek Peterson - Moderator Senior Vice President, Walton Int’l Group J. David Kelsey Managing Principal, Hamilton Point Investments Bill Lehew Director of Strategic Accounts, Hines H. Michael Schwartz Chairman & CEO, Strategic Storage
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