What future for agriculture and food in an increasingly globalized world? Highlights from a recent symposium Frank van Tongeren Trade and Agriculture Directorate

OECD Trade & Agriculture Directorate 2 Symposium set-up Symposium march 2009 Identify key drivers, trends and tradeoffs Horizon 2030 Help develop ‘robust’ policies for alternative futures 130 participants (academics, policy makers, civil society), but little involvement of developing countries Paperless meeting with panels and breakout sessions

OECD Trade & Agriculture Directorate 3 Broad themes Competing claims: –What are the main scarcities that will drive agro-food developments? Innovation: –What can technology and innovation contribute? Agriculture and its neighbours: –What are the links with non-agricultural sectors? Great expectations: –What is society expecting from the global food system?

OECD Trade & Agriculture Directorate 4 Main messages Behind current economic crisis may loom a more important long-term threat –Scarcity of natural resources –Sharpened efficiency-equity trade off Growing scarcity: –Land, water, micro-nutrients, phosphate –absolute or relative scarcity? Internalize environmental and other externalities: –‘righter’ prices –But adjustment may fall on poorer households, especially in developing countries

OECD Trade & Agriculture Directorate 5 Food and climate change A dilemma: more food while reducing green house gas emissions Significant contribution from agriculture to GHG emissions –10% -12% IPCC-4 –25%-35% Searchinger Tough problem –but with more biomass for energy even harder Much uncertainty around measuring agriculture’s contribution to emissions and to carbon sequestration –Need better accounting

OECD Trade & Agriculture Directorate 6 Agriculture and energy Linkages between agriculture and energy have strengthened –More demand for biomass as energy feedstock Main drivers for future: –Relative price of oil and biomass –Biofuel policies –Biomass technology –Innovation in alternative renewables (solar wind)

OECD Trade & Agriculture Directorate 7 Agriculture and the rest of the economy Integration of agriculture with other sectors differs between developed and developing countries –Financial sector –Supply chains –Role of supermarkets in transformation (urban demands) –Private standards support improved logistics and quality along supply chain in developing countries

OECD Trade & Agriculture Directorate 8 Agriculture and innovation Innovation and technologies are key factors for the future Overcome emerging scarcities : they are not necessarily absolute –E.g. plants can be made smarter in their use of water and nutrients Right incentives for innovation and adoption in different social, cultural and economic contexts Effective regulatory framework important –Balance economic interests of innovator and potential hazards of new technologies

OECD Trade & Agriculture Directorate 9Conclusions Resource scarcity is a problem that needs to be addressed by innovations in technology, improved efficiency along the supply chain; Fixing market imperfections and getting prices to better reflect resource scarcities is a key challenge; Distributional consequences of improving resource use policies have to become integral to policy design. The future is uncertain; anticipating emerging scarcities is one important aspect of preparations for the future. But scarcities are not necessarily absolute and can be overcome. Policies must get the incentives right for long-term growth in the context of increasing environmental pressures.

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