The ABCD/DUK/SfE/RCP Manpower Survey ( ) Dinesh Nagi Presented at ABCD Cardiff 26t h April 2015

The ABCD/DUK/SfE/RCP Survey 2014 (1/10/ /9/2014) The Process Postal Survey Sent Mid September 2014 Supportive information obtained – RCP- AAC Unit – RCP- Workforce Survey 2013 – BMJ Careers Unit – JRCPTB

The ABCD/DUK/SfE/RCP Survey 2014 (1/10/ /9/2014) Results

Consultant Level Appointments Survey Year Number

Consultant Level Appointments New vs replacement posts Survey Year Number

Make of new appointments Retired Left Posts New Posts Total

Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2012 Consultant expansion in specialty vs all specialties United Kingdom 2003–2012 Data upto 2012 (last RCP report available)

Number of Head Count and WTE YearHead countWTE

Mean age at retirement was 62.7 yrs Age of those in post was 62.8 yrs was 62.3 yrs was 62.2 yrs was 62.3 yrs

Number of consultants who will reach 65 years of age over the next 10 years – by specialty Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2012 RCP Survey Specialty Total % of speci alty Endocrinology and diabetes mellitus All specialties , % Data upto 2012 (last RCP report available)

Annual Total Headcount and WTE CountryPopulationHeadcountHead count per 100,000 WTEWTE per 100,000 England53,170, Wales 3,074, Scotland 5,313, N Ireland 1,823, UK CountryPopulationHeadcountHead count per 100,000 WTEWTE per 100,000 England53,865, Wales3, Scotland5, N Ireland1,81, UK64,105,

Mean programmed activities (PAs) contracted per week Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2012 RCP Survey SpecialtyResponses TotalClinicalAcademicSupportingOther PAs Endocrinology and diabetes mellitus All specialties5, Mean programmed activities (PAs) worked per week SpecialtyResponses TotalClinicalAcademicSupportingOther PAs Endocrinology and diabetes mellitus Summary5,

Specialist Training and Recruitement

NTN numbers (Total enrolled to date) Figures from JRCPTB Trainees are out of the Programme In full time research ?? Total Number in Training = 407

CCT numbers (Period 1 st Aug-31 st July) Figures from JRCPTB YearCCT Awarded N/A YearCCT Predicted

Survey Overview (1) The survey appears to continue to give a accurate ascertainment of numbers in post The total numbers of new appointments was lower from last year The number of post in acute medicine with D&E interest is stable over the last 2 years

Survey Overview (2) The numbers of expected new CCT holders in the coming years is higher than current vacancies Retirement vacancies do not look likely to vary much in the coming years The rate of creation of new posts will continue to determine the overall balance, but has been the lowest ever for (Total 4)

Highlights Consultant Posts Rate of expansion- i.e new posts is all time low Retirement posts are being replaced and number of people retiring each year is stable The number of CCT awarded annually exceeds the number of available posts. Mismatch between CCT holders and Available posts? Specialist Registrar The Ratio of existing Consultant posts/NTNs is 1.9 Recruitment: Unfilled NTNs (3 rd behind Elderly and AIM) and Geographic Variation

Succession Planning - Dr Stella George has been appointed to lead the survey for next 5 years (starting ) Next Survey ( ), will be done jointly with Handover and Mentoring period Changes for survey? – Emphasis on Job Plan and workload – More accurate data on GIM/Diabetes/Endo split – Academic Contribution by consultants and accurate ascertainment of Academic posts – Primary care work

Future Hospital: Caring for medical patients

Aim of the Future Hospital Commission Identify new way of delivering hospital services: Come to patient Coordinated around patients’ needs (including for multiple conditions) Organised over seven days Reach beyond hospital walls Value patient experience as much as clinical outcome Deliver clear lines of responsibility for patient care

Realising the Future Hospital RCP Future Hospital Programme ( ) improve care for patients develop and implement vision - medical care in hospital and community drive real change - recommendation to reality work in partnership with: - patients -individual hospitals and teams -partners across health and social care (FH strategic advisory group) -national stakeholders

Realising the Future Hospital Consult Future Hospital partner sites -develop model -understand implications -identify barriers and changes -promote and mentor Promote good practice - Future Hospital Journal Influence - identify levers in new structures Embed in existing RCP work

FHC partnership Programme (RCP) Sites Four Chosen out of 20 Application 3 focus on Elderly care 1 on emergency Floor re-organisation First meeting 15 th October Other Sites – Wales (Betsy Cowadalon) – East Lanacashire – Wessex region

Elderly Assessment Unit Care Closer to Home Improved Social Services Links More effective use of Intermediate Care/ Community Geriatricians Secondary care advice for primary care Increased usage of existing community services – e.g. iv therapy Improved Care Home Liaison/ Liaison with Community Matrons Vision = Integrated Patient Centred Care for Older People (MYT)

Project Time lines Start date: Likely to be late 2014/Early 2015 Total Duration Months Initial Planning and start 0-3 month Implementation and delivery 3-12 month Evaluation month Write up and dissemination month With interim evaluation and project progress assessment as per governance structure

First FHC RCP National Meeting (Harrogate) March 2015 Attended by 600 delegates including Trainees Key Speakers from Politicians/Public and experts A huge Success Next Year date. – March 2016 – Harrogate

Final report will be available after end April 2015 DUK Website: ABCD Website: SfE Website