China-U.S. Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions History and Forecast Richard G. Newell Director, Duke University Energy Initiative and Gendell Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University Duke-Kunshan Workshop on “China-U.S. Climate Change Action and Cooperation” September 10, 2015 | Kunshan, China

Global CO 2 emissions: different policy assumptions underlie different projections of world energy-related emissions Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 2 Data source: Historical data from IEA Statistics until Projections from IEA World Energy Outlook (2014), U.S. EIA International Energy Outlook (2013), ExxonMobil Outlook for Energy (2015) and Shell New Lens Scenarios (2013).

Divergent CO 2 emissions trajectories between U.S. and China Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 3 Data source: Historical data are from IEA Statistics until Projections from IEA World Energy Outlook (2014), U.S. EIA International Energy Outlook (2013), ExxonMobil Outlook for Energy (2015).

U.S. climate target in the INDC Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 4 U.S. is the second largest GHG emitter after China, accounting for 16% of global emissions U.S. pledges –Copenhagen: Reduce GHG emissions by 17% below 2005 level by 2020 –INDC: Reduce GHG emissions by 26-28% below 2005 level by 2025 –Consistent with a pathway to 80% or more reduction by 2050 Measures proposed in INDC to achieve this target –Established domestic laws and regulations (Clean Air Act, Energy Policy Act, Energy Independence and Security Act, Fuel Economy Standards for certain vehicle types, Clean Power Plan) –Proposed but unfinalized regulations (including post-2018 heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy standards, more stringent code for buildings and appliances) –No intention to use international market mechanism to implement 2025 target

U.S. historical energy-related CO 2 emissions and reduction targets Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 5 Copenhagen target 17% below 2005 in 2020 INDC target 26-28% below 2005 in 2025 Data source: Historical data are from EIA International Statistics. Focused on CO 2 only.

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan Total reduction How can U.S. achieve its reduction target? Data source: Historical data from U.S. EIA International Statistics. Projection data from Reference Case of U.S. EIA’s AEO2007, 2010, 2012, 2015; CAFE Standards Case of AEO2012; and EIA’s Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (2015) 2020 target -17% ( 2007 EIA Reference Case Pre-recession, before EISA2007 was enacted 2010 EIA Reference Case Post-recession, includes EISA2007 and CAFE standards for MY target -26% CAFE standards MY ~200 Mt

Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan How can U.S. achieve its reduction target? Data source: Historical data from U.S. EIA International Statistics. Projections from Reference Case of EIA’s AEO2007, 2010, 2012, 2015; CAFE Standards Case of AEO2012; and EIA’s Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (2015) ~100 Mt 2007 EIA Reference Case Pre-recession, before EISA2007 was enacted 2010 EIA Reference Case Post-recession, includes EISA2007 and CAFE standards for MY EIA Reference Case EIA 2012 CAFE Case MY EIA 2015 Reference Case EIA Clean Power Plan Base Case Scenario 2025 target Heavy duty vehicle standards ~50 Mt 7

2050 cost-effective mitigation opportunities in the U.S. Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 8 Data source: AMPERE Project

2050 cost-effective mitigation opportunities in China Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 9 Data source: AMPERE Project

For more information Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 10 Richard Newell Duke University Energy Initiative energy.duke.edu