Thoughts on Models UC Davis SB 375 Policy Forum March 5, 2014 David Ory

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4 7.0 million 16.4 resident passenger vehicle miles traveled per capita 8.7 million 13.9 resident passenger vehicle miles traveled per capita

5 7.0 million 16.4 resident passenger vehicle miles traveled per capita 1.7 M 3.9 resident passenger vehicle miles traveled per capita Family of four: ~4,700 miles annually in all family vehicles

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Models help with assessments. All kinds. 7

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… modeling is everything. 9

Formal documentation and quantification of our understanding (and often our hypotheses) of travel behavior. 10

Accessibility versus Mobility 11

Not done 12

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Slow Sexy Focus 14

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Car sharing Bike sharing Ride sharing Autonomous vehicles Variable workplaces … 23

Automobile ownership Workplace location Tour mode choice Carpool formation … 24

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Predictive Land Use Models 26

Supply & Demand Twice as hard 27

Cultural change 28

fin. 29