Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? Thomas Malthus & Overpopulation o Overpopulation – when population exceeds carrying capacity (ability of environment & its resources to sustain a certain population) o 1798 Essay on the Principle of Population Pop. grows geometrically (exponentially) Food supply grows arithmetically (linearly) Population growing faster than food supply Needed to lower CBR or disease/famine/war to raise CDR o Right or Wrong? o Neo-Malthusians Only a few rich countries had entered Stage 2 by 1800 Now, high grow in poorer countries (improved medicine) Malthus was correct for some poorer countries Other resources (energy, minerals, land, clean air) face shortages

Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? Thomas Malthus & Overpopulation o Critics of Malthus Theory based on fixed resources – did not consider new technology/methods (equipment, refrigeration, transport) Larger pop. could stimulate growth & food production Others blamed capitalism and unjust economic/social systems for hunger & poverty Having too few people may harm development Some nations may consider more people = more power (military)

Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? Declining Birth Rates o Food production has grown similar to Malthus but pop growth has been slower (social changes in Stage 3 & 4) o Some areas are running out of food but not whole world – wealth has limited access not supply o Decline in CBR & NIR worldwide since 1980 o CDR increasing in Africa (HIV/AIDS)

Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? Strategies to Decrease CBR o Economic Development – more money, healthcare, education o Distribution of Contraceptives (Birth Control) Opposition faced where women have fewer rights, large families viewed as positive, religious (Catholic, some Protestant, some Muslim, some Hindu) Limited money and education for birth control where demand is highest in LDC’s

Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? World Health Trends & Epidemiologic Transition o Epidemic & pandemic o Epidemiologic Transition & Demographic Transition o Stage 1 & 2 (Pestilence & Famine) Infectious & parasitic diseases, animal & human attacks Examples: Black Plague (mid 1300s) & Cholera (1800s) Spread by rats & unsanitary water/sewer o Stages 3 & 4 (Degenerative & Human-created diseases) Cardiovascular & cancer (associated with diet & aging) Decline of infectious diseases due to vaccines o Possible Stage 5 (re-emergence of infectious) Return of diseases, resistant to drugs (Malaria), continued existence in LDC’s, new diseases (Avian Flu)

Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? HIV/AIDS o 20 mil. have died as of 2006, 40 mil. with HIV in 2006 o Most cases in LDC’s (95%) and most new cases too o South Africa – 6 million with HIV/AIDS o Botswana & Zimbabwe – over 30% of adults o Severe in India & Haiti o Sub-Saharan Africa CDR’s on rise due to AIDS o Life expectancies in Africa dropped from 50s to 30s & 40s since 1980