Guns and Violence: A Global Perspective Robert Muggah Small Arms Survey, Geneva

Key points The global distribution of weapons is uneven and « lumpy » and related to income, regulatory frameworks and « demand factors » The global distribution of weapons is uneven and « lumpy » and related to income, regulatory frameworks and « demand factors » About 700,000 deaths per year can be attributed to armed violence (direct and indirect) About 700,000 deaths per year can be attributed to armed violence (direct and indirect) The global distribution of armed violence does not map directly onto the distribution of weapons The global distribution of armed violence does not map directly onto the distribution of weapons « vectors of violence » are poorly understood « vectors of violence » are poorly understood « Violence pays »: in many places the politics of violence reduction are complex and difficult « Violence pays »: in many places the politics of violence reduction are complex and difficult

A largely civilian arsenal Who has the guns? Civilians own approximately 650 million of the total 875 million combined civilian, law enforcement, and military firearms in the world today

Rates of Civilian Weapons Possession: Selected Countries (per 100 persons)

Per capita GDP and Civilian Possession

A Global Gun Market? Large price differentials for similar weapons exist across the world – the result inter alia of national regulatory policies and local demand

Controlling Gun Markets: Some Findings The more effective a country’s national regulatory system, the higher the price for weapons The more effective a country’s national regulatory system, the higher the price for weapons Countries with more porous borders tend to have lower weapons prices (especially in Africa) Countries with more porous borders tend to have lower weapons prices (especially in Africa) Weapons prices do not appear associated with homicide rates, economic downturns, or young male demographics Weapons prices do not appear associated with homicide rates, economic downturns, or young male demographics Cheaper weapons are related to an increased risk of civil war Cheaper weapons are related to an increased risk of civil war Excess weapons in post-conflict settings tend to keep prices low, increasing the regional conflict risk for some time Excess weapons in post-conflict settings tend to keep prices low, increasing the regional conflict risk for some time

Why Focus on the Gun? Weapons are a principal vector of violence Weapons are a principal vector of violence In most cases, the vast majority of homicides are committed with guns In most cases, the vast majority of homicides are committed with guns

The Global Burden of Armed Violence Approximately 700,000 fatal injuries annually Approximately 700,000 fatal injuries annually 40-80,000+ of these in armed conflict 40-80,000+ of these in armed conflict 490,000 from homicide, suicide and accident 490,000 from homicide, suicide and accident 60% with firearms) 60% with firearms) Approximately ,000+ « indirect victims » Approximately ,000+ « indirect victims »

Visualizing Victimization

Regional Distribution of Violent Deaths

Homicide in Latin America (17 countries in 2003 or nearest year, per 100,000)

Impact Distribution: Geography, age and gender

The Spatial Distribution of Violence xx Guatemala: Most violence is concentrated in urban areas, border areas, and major transportation corridors Violence is lowest in the poor, indigenous, highland areas

Urbanization and Armed Violence Number of cities/countries and sub-region Ratio of homicide rate in city(ies) to rate in rest of country 3 cities in 3 countries in North America cities in 28 countries in West/Central Europe1.6 4 cities in 4 countries in C. Asia/Transcaucasia1.4 8 cities in 8 countries in Southeast Europe1.3 5 cities in 5 countries in East Asia0.9 9 cities in 9 countries in South America0.8 6 cities in 6 countries in Central America0.8 4 cities in 4 countries in East Europe0.6 Source: UNODC

« Framing the Issue »: Forum Shopping I « The illicit trade in small arms and light weapons in all its aspects » aspects » Supply-side, multilateral, global and regional: limited in utility (marking and tracing, brokers, transfer controls): arms control approach II Small arms and development/poverty, etc. « Second generation » measures, DDR, stockpile management, weapons destruction III Armed violence and development Violence prevention and reduction programmes, demand-reduction, security sector reform: criminological approach

Research Challenges and Dilemmas Too little data; data-driven analytic models usually don’t include guns as an “intervention point” Too little data; data-driven analytic models usually don’t include guns as an “intervention point” Explanatory theories are lacking, implicit models are relatively crude, analysis is insufficiently “fine-grained” Explanatory theories are lacking, implicit models are relatively crude, analysis is insufficiently “fine-grained” Existing initiatives are predominantly national (or inter-state); yet guns and violence are demographically, spatially and socio- economically concentrated Existing initiatives are predominantly national (or inter-state); yet guns and violence are demographically, spatially and socio- economically concentrated Identification of risk (and resilience) factors produces a shopping list; only weakly evidence-based Identification of risk (and resilience) factors produces a shopping list; only weakly evidence-based Violence is politically and economically productive, for both non-state and state actors Violence is politically and economically productive, for both non-state and state actors

Small Arms Survey

Stemming Illicit Trafficking and Use

Cause or symptom? Escalatory cycles of armed violence Force asymmetries Arms acquisition Arms racing Escalating armed violence Symptom of insecurity Cause of insecurity

Direct and indirect costs of armed violence Direct and indirect costs of armed violence Human Social, economic, and other costs DirectDeath and injury Hospital care Lost productivity/income Life insurance pay-out Interrupted commerce Impaired tax collection Capital flight Damage to private property Damage to infrastructure Damage to agriculture IndirectDeath and sickness from treatable disease Death and sickness from malnutrition Death and injury from risk-taking Lost quality of life Care providing (family) Out-patient care Migration/emigration Increased policing Incarceration Higher insurance rates Higher commodity prices Legal services Reduced GDP Long term productivity/income losses Re-building property and infrastructure Re-planting/re-stocking agriculture

Ammunition flows can alter the intensity of armed violence and patterns of use/misuseAmmunition flows can alter the intensity of armed violence and patterns of use/misuse A consumable good: ammunition stocks can be quickly depletedA consumable good: ammunition stocks can be quickly depleted A choke point for controlling armed violence A choke point for controlling armed violence Marking and tracing can deter proliferation and leakage Marking and tracing can deter proliferation and leakage Targeting Ammunition Targeting Ammunition

Kenya (Ethiopian border) Kenya Uganda Sudan