V. Ryabinin Polar Thorpex Workshop, Oslo, 6-8 October 2010 Polar Research within the World Climate Research Programme (Vladimir Ryabinin, Joint Planning Staff for WCRP) Objectives: ♦ To determine the predictability of climate ♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate

IPY IPY IPY IPY April 1866 Courtesy IABP Launch of ICESat Arctic Climate System Study 1994–2003

IPY IPY IPY IPY WGNE WGCM WGSIP WOAP TFRCD Seasonal Decadal ACC AC&C Monsoons Extremes SLR IPY Regional JSC JPS (CAS/WCRP) with WGOMD

IPY IPY IPY IPY Current climate prediction experiments Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX (Courtesy TFRCD) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project - CHFP Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment 5 – CMIP5 (Courtesy WGCM)

IPY IPY IPY IPY Stratosphere and Polar Climate Effects of stratospheric ozone hole and expected ozone layer recovery (CCMVal + WMO/UNEP Assessment 2010, also for AR5) Sudden stratospheric warmings and coolings Predictability of the polar vortex, DYNVAR, gravity wave initiative Polar Observations (e.g. Vorcore) Polar Data (e.g. SPARC-IPY)

IPY IPY IPY IPY CEOP/CliC Cold Regions Study

IPY IPY IPY IPY Interactions between the Ocean, Atmosphere, Sea Ice and Snow-pack in Polar regions Determine the importance of OASIS chemical, physical and biological exchange processes on tropospheric chemistry, the cryosphere, and the marine environment, and their feedback mechanisms in the context of a changing climate. AICI: Air Ice Chemical Interactions (IGAC, SOLAS, CliC)

IPY IPY IPY IPY CliC SSG-6, Valdivia, Chile, Ice sheets and SLR Marine Cryosphere Terrestrial Cryosphere Global Prediction of Cryosphere Cryospheric inputs to the Arctic and Southern Ocean Freshwater Budgets Ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics and impacts on SLR Regional Climate Modelling Initiatives that integrate CliC themes Carbon and Permafrost Changes and feedbacks in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice ☼ Lead theme ☼ ☼ ☼ ☼ ☼

IPY IPY IPY IPY Major CliC Initiatives Koni Steffen

IPY IPY IPY IPY Observed Rate of Loss Faster Than GCM Predicted Stroeve et al., 2007 Bitz., in press

IPY IPY IPY IPY SEARCH Sea-Ice Outlook 19 Sep, NSIDC 12 Sep, NSIDC CliC Sea-Ice Activities WCRP White Paper “Rapid Loss Sea-Ice in the Arctic” - ARctic HIndcast, Modelling and PrEdiction StuDiES (ARCHIMEDES) - CMIP5 Diagnostic Proejct - Sea-Ice Algorithms Intercomparison – workshop soon CliC – IARC Workshop on Arctic Ice Loss (Fairbanks, USA, 6-8 October 2010) Arctic Sea-Ice Working Group Antarctic Sea-Ice Processes and Climate (ASPeCt) (with SCAR) Southern Ocean Physical Oceanography and Cryosphere Linkages (SOPHOCLES)

IPY IPY IPY IPY Major CliC Initiatives Total C Mass in the Atmosphere ~ 800 Gt Carbon and Permafrost = CAPER (C. Le Queré et al., 2009) (C. Tarnocai et al., 2008)

IPY IPY IPY IPY ? scaled from Carmack rapid retreat of glaciers: Alaska ~1/2 of global loss Eurasian discharge increased at ~2 km3/yr, Arctic precipitation +8% over last 100 yr melt area on Greenland ice sheet increased ~16%, CHANGES IN THE FRESHWATER BUDGET COMPONENTS e.g., from ACIA: Walsh et al., 2005

IPY IPY IPY IPY Arctic System Reanalysis  Regional Reanalysis of the Arctic Atmosphere/Ocean/Land System  High Resolution in Time (3 hours) and Space (15 km, 71 levels) – will consider 10 km resolution Time – 2000 to 2010 Satellite Radiance Assimilation Supported by NSF as an IPY Project Courtesy: Dave Bromwich

IPY IPY IPY IPY SWIPA Chapters under national review Predictions using WCRP CMIP3

IPY IPY IPY IPY

IPY IPY IPY IPY The Report Preface Foreword Executive Summary 1. The Cryosphere Theme 2. Applications of Cryospheric Data 3. Terrestrial Snow 4. Sea Ice 5. Lake and River Ice 6. Ice Sheets 7. Glaciers and Ice Caps 8. Surface Temperature and Albedo 9. Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground 10. Solid Precipitation 11. An Integrated and Coordinated Observing System 12. Implementation App. A. References App. B. Observational Capabilities and Requirements App. C. Satellite Missions in Support of the Theme App. D. Acronyms App. E. Contributors Contributions from ~80 people in 17 countries throughout the development phase.

IPY IPY IPY IPY Climate at forefront thru > 20 WCRP-Affiliated Projects International Polar Year

IPY IPY IPY IPY Main observing initiatives contributing to the creation of an IPY Legacy: Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON), Integrated Arctic Ocean Observing System (iAOOS), and Arctic-HYCOS as parts of SAON, Pan-Antarctic Observing System (PAntOS), Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) as part of PAntOS, The WMO Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW), Polar Satellite Constellation (PSC), Polar Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF)

IPY IPY IPY IPY Scoping document accepted by WMO Executive Council in June The Council requested the preparation of a GCW implementation strategy for consideration by the WMO Congress in Global Cryosphere Watch-a WMO Initiative A legacy of WCRP/CliC in the area of observations A contribution to GCOS & GEOSS

IPY IPY IPY IPY Principal Goal: To assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability and change have on components of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system. WCRP’s Climate and Cryosphere Project Co-sponsored by SCAR and IASC Enabling prediction of the Arctic climate system; Enabling prediction of the Antarctic climate system; Enabling prediction of terrestrial cryosphere; and Enabling improved assessment of the past, current and future sea-level variability and change. New

IPY IPY IPY IPY Topics : Atmospheric effects of sea-ice changes and vice versa Ice sheets and ice shelves effects on ocean circulation, other cryospheric effects Major processes in and predictability of the polar oceans Land surface effects such as ones of snow cover, soil moisture, etc. Northern river run-off effects and freshwater balance Sudden stratospheric warmings Effects of atmospheric constituents, e.g. O3, GHG, aerosols, BC, CH4 Volcanic effects Solar cycle effects QBO effects ENSO effects and teleconnections with lower latitudes Large-scale modes of climate variability (AMO, PDO, AO/NAO, SAM) and long- living anomalies in the ocean heat content and its transport Dynamic effects – planetary and gravity waves, polar night jet, etc. Then: Road Map to Arctic Climate Prediction Gap analysis: Pacific, Southern Ocean, surface fluxes? Technological and programmatic solutions; e.g. implementing a seamless system, cooperation, e.g. with TAWEPI; experience, e.g. one of NCEP “Seasonal to Multi-decadal Predictability of Polar Climate” Dates: October 2010 Venue: Bergen Workshop

IPY IPY IPY IPY Ocean ReAnalyses & OSs Arctic Ocean

IPY IPY IPY IPY Rapid change is affecting traditional way of life, health and safety; threatens land- based, freshwater and marine species CLIPS in Polar Regions There is a need for consistent, useful, operational climate information, products and services for high latitudes: Industry including land and marine transportation, mining, oil and gas exploration and energy production must consider climate variability and change in planning and operations

IPY IPY IPY IPY International Polar Decade (?) Developments in studies of real predictability (ocean reanalysis), observations of polar regions, polar and cryospheric reanalyses, modelling and data assimilation, and etc., could be integrated in an IPD and result in significant progress in polar climate prediction at a variety of scales.

IPY IPY IPY IPY Cooperation