Keep on the Sunny Side: An Examination of the Values of the Simon-Ehrlich Bet Global Foundations Emelia C. Enquist

Paul R. Ehrlich  Ecologist  Malthusian  Pessimist  The Population Bomb (1968)

Julian L. Simon  Economist  Cornucopian  Optimist  “Resources, Population, Environment: An Oversupply of False Bad News” (Science magazine, 1980)

The Bet “In October 1980 the Ehrlich group bet $1,000 on five metals— chrome, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten—in quantities that each cost $200 in their current market. A futures contract was drawn up obligating Simon to sell Ehrlich, Harte and Holdren these same quantities of the metals 10 years later, but at 1980s prices. If the 1990s combined prices turned out to be higher than $1,000, Simon would pay them the difference in cash. If prices fell, they would pay him” (Tierney 1).

The Outcome  Ehrlich’s group’s metals decreased in value  Simon won…but did he?

Ehrlichian Values  Positives  “We apparently have reached a point now where we must reassess our approach to the basic necessities of life. In addition to the unprecedentedly concurrent problems of unemployment and inflation, there are new problems relating to environmental pollution and the rapid deterioration of natural systems throughout the world, the realization that supplies of fossil fuels are inherently exhaustible, and the further realization that there is a growing scarcity of agricultural land and other natural resources” (Grove 616).  Negatives  “….nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate” (Tierney 3).  Proved himself wrong  Popularity

Simonian Values  Positives  "There's nothing wrong with worrying about new problems--we need problems so we can come up with solutions that leave us better off than if they'd never come up in the first place" (Tierney 4).  Negatives  Too trusting?  Popularity

So what?

Bibliography  AAG Center for Global Geography Education. “Malthusian Theory of Population.” Accessed April 21, PopNatRes_Jan10/CF_PopNatRes_Jan108.html Center for Conservative Biology. “Ecofables/ecoscience: Countering the distortion of environmental science; The two Simon bets.” Accessed April 21, PopNatRes_Jan10/CF_PopNatRes_Jan108.htmlhttp://  Grove, Ernest W. “Present and Prehistoric Problems of Natural Resources.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61 (1979):  Kiel, Katherine A., Victor A. Matheson, and Kevin Golembiewski. “Luck or Skill? An Examination of the Ehrlich – Simon Bet.”  Simcox, David E. “The Population Explosion by Paul Ehrlich: Ann Ehrlich.” Population and Environment 12 (1990):  Simon, Julian L. “Resources, Population, Environment: An Oversupply of False Bad News.” Science 208 (1980):  Fitzpatrick, Thomas M. and Karen Spohn. “A 25 th Anniversary Redux of the Simon and Ehrlich Global Sustainability Wager.” Journal of International Business and Cultural Studies (2005): 1-7.  Tierney, John. “Betting on the Planet.” The New York Times, December 2, 1990.