Corn Industry Trends Tom Lilja December 18, 2013
Ag Revolutions Mechanical – 1794 Cotton Gin Chemical – Post World War II Financial – 1980’s collapse Biotechnology – mid 1990’s Protein Revolution today?? Or Logistical?? Fundamental Demand Changes Occurring
3 World Population Millions
4 Chinese Domestic Corn Feed Demand MMT
5 Per Capita GDP Rates in SE Asia ChinaIndia
6 Delta in World Meat Demand
Doubting Thomas Malthusian Theory – population is inclined to increase more rapidly than the supply of food that such growth necessitates Can we disprove Malthus?
Yield Enhancement Drought Tolerance
More Corn Per Acre
North Dakota Yield Variability 28%
North Dakota Yield Stability 15%
What Helped Stabilize Yield? Corn Borer trait (Bt) introduction 1997 Southeast North Dakota NK bushels / acre NK 3030BT 141 bushels / acre Roundup Ready technology in corn and soybeans has not stunted plant growth as with traditional chemicals Corn Rootworm Traits Stacking of Traits
Supply Side Economics ?? 90 bushels / acre – mid 1990’s 115 bushels / acre – extra bushels across 3.5 million acres Or Bonanza?? 87.5 million more bushels x $6.67 USDA $584 million more to ND economy $2.47 Billion ( ) CAPTS, NDSU $9.7 Billion ( ) CAPTS, NDSU
Land Use Amount of land to produce one bushel of corn Soil Loss Soil loss per bushel, above a tolerable level Irrigation Irrigation water use per bushel Energy Energy used to produce one bushel Climate Emissions per bushel Corn’s Impacts, % 69% 27% 37% 30%
Pesticide Use Trends Increasing adoption of hybrids with insect-resistant and herbicide-tolerant traits have greatly reduced the need for synthetic applications of herbicides and insecticides. Insecticide Pounds Per AcreHerbicide Pounds Per Acre Source: USDA
Actual Corn Growers Become More Efficient With Nitrogen COMMERCIAL NITROGEN APPLIED PER BUSHEL OF CORN PRODUCED ACTUAL & TREND TO 2030 Pounds per Bushel Trend Source: Blue, Johnson & Associates, Inc. Source: Blue, Johnson & Assoc. Inc.
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