Integrated Hazard Information Services Workshop October Boulder, CO

Planning Team Carl Bullock John Ferree Eve Gruntfest Tracy Hansen Tom LeFebvre Brian Motta Ashvin Mysore Jim Ramer Sal Romano Kevin Scharfenberg Greg Stumpf Joe Wakefield Susan Williams Monica Zappa Tom Filiaggi* Mike Turner* * Assisted with final report

Agenda In Harm's Way... Workshop Overview Social Science Component Workshop Results Summary

Conceptual Development PrototypingImplementation Testing and Evaluation Operational Use Roles Researcher/Scientist Developer Forecaster Social Scientist Research to Operations Iteration/feedback Partner

Workshop Theme WARNINGS are relative to IMPACTS IMPACTS are relative to the SITUATIONS

Workshop Goals To understand what INFORMATION is needed and in what FORMS to aid all those who need to make DECISIONS. To apply the STRAWMAN design to a set of scenarios to yield refined requirements. To foster social learning with the FULL SPECTRUM of stakeholders.

Digital Database Polygons, Points, Hazard and Sensible Weather Grids GIS Information Graphical products Recommender (when scientifically feasible)‏ Forecaster Edits Workspace METEOROLOGY/HYDROLOGY PRODUCTS Observations Models Guidance Product Formatters Product Database Forecaster Added information – Impacts, Calls to Action Text Products/ CAP Info VTEC, Active Table Spotter information Weather Interpreter/ Partners Emergency Mgrs Private Sector GIS Applications Aviation Sector? Workspace Official Forecaster Publishes to Official Collaborations Among all stakeholders Partners and Forecasters Internal (within forecast office) External (across forecast offices) Twitter, IM Forecaster Tools Customized GUI's to View / Edit Databases Partner Tools Monitors GUI's Query Tools

FPUS51 KLWX ZFPLWX ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 409 AM EDT WED SEP MDZ WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN 409 AM EDT WED SEP TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH..TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH..THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. $$ - Data Layers NWS Warnings Population Density Schools 22 Sept24 Sept25 Sept23 Sept  Tornado Warning  Population Density  Schools Spatial – Zoom In/Out Temporal – Zoom In/Out - Analysis / Products +Generate Products +Tools (e.g. how many affected?. How many school children affected?)... Output Windows

Summary of social science involvement Conducting interviews across the spectrum of partners Interactive process of constructing graphics highlighting spatial and temporal needs of forecasters and decision- makers Weaving needs of decision-makers into the next generation warning products Integrating feedback into the results Goal: Developing interactive end-to-end practices that include all partners all the time Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice

Eight study participants Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice

Partner PositionSpaceTime Hydrologist – in charge of metropolitan warning system Flash flood concerned with fairly small scale drainage catchments Short time frames for warnings, generally 2-3 hours Broadcast Meteorologist Broadcast viewing area, generally metro area and surrounding counties Uneven policies for breaking into programming before the warning, during and when it expires County Emergency Manager Concerned with county jurisdiction Interested in accurate information 5 days before hurricane landfall to prepare for evacuations NWS forecaster/IT officerConcerned with WFO region Often there are winter events that have a 4-5 day advisory, watch, warning cycle NWS forecaster Concerned with WFO region and bordering regions in severe events Interested in long term forecasts, however severe events (tornadoes) tend to be quick and warnings are typically around 30 min long Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice Time and space concerns of partners

5 Days 4 Days3 Days2 Days1 DayEvent One county emergency manager’s hurricane warning time/space considerations Conference calls EMs & NWS – storm potential Decisions about whether or not to evacuate special needs populations Decisions about whether or not to evacuate everyone at risk Evacuations – none, some/all of county NWS Forecasts are integrated in storm surge models Evacuation decision begin: When? Who? To where? Order buses? Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice

Time Scale 0 km 100 Km 1000 km 100 Km 1000 km 6 Jan Feb 1 Feb 2Feb 3 Feb 4Feb 5 First outlook issued 1 st watch issued (2pm) 2 nd watch issued (3pm) 1 st warning issued 9pm Nashville sirens sounded 13 fatalities 44 injuries Lafayette, TN Awareness raised among emergency managers, and other officials Hospitals, Schools, Events? 26 tornado warnings issued 8 severe storm warnings Geographic space scales: Regional, State, Local 10 Km Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice

Beginning the process of filling in the activities and information needs for decision-making Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice Decisions about issuing warnings Who did the EM talk to before making decisions about sounding sirens? Decisions about acting in hazardous weather events are based on a multitude of social conditions What other programs were media stations competing with at the time of hazardous weather? When did the event(s) happen relative to people's schedules (on the way to work, at night)?

Putting it all together: Future relationships for developing effective advisories and warnings Relationships with all the hazardous weather decision-makers Changing the paradigm of hazardous weather warnings to focus on interdependent and interactive relationships Publics Weather Forecasters Media Emergency Managers & 1 st Responders 6 Developers Researchers Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice

Workshop Results

Breakout One – Wish Lists Forecasters –Integrated Hazard Creation Tool with Recommender –Legacy and new products –Improved and standardized relationships with Partners –Seamless backup Partners –More interaction with forecasters and social scientists –Input into service design –Customized and consistent products –Impact-based information

Breakout Two – Process Interaction between all stakeholders –Before, during, and after event –Live interaction to get questions answered –Service Backup to support this interaction as well as products –Considerations at different temporal scales – 4-6 days prior, 2-3 days prior, day before, day of...

Breakout Three – Database Contents –“Threat in motion” -- Hazard information seamless in space and time –Probabilistic and Impact information –Hazard attributes – spotter reports, calls to action –GIS, situational awareness information Access –Both “push” and “pull” customized products –Input and output by all stakeholders Framework approach

Future Plans Implementation Plan Social Science Collaboration Plan Partner Collaboration Plan Refined Requirements submission to OSIP

Implementation Plan

FPUS51 KLWX ZFPLWX ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 409 AM EDT WED SEP MDZ WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN 409 AM EDT WED SEP TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH..TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH..THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. $$ - Data Layers NWS Warnings Population Density Schools 22 Sept24 Sept25 Sept23 Sept  Tornado Warning  Population Density  Schools Spatial – Zoom In/Out Temporal – Zoom In/Out - Analysis / Products +Generate Products +Tools (e.g. how many affected?. How many school children affected?)... Output Windows

Build-your-own View Unifying WarnGen, GHG, RiverPro does NOT mean crowding everything onto one display at the same time Instead – we envision the user (forecaster or partner) building customized Views from the same tool box –With the ability to display multiple Views at the same time –And Save and Recall named Views

Ability to Extend and Customize Extendable Framework –Complex rules implemented in a scripting language (e.g. Like Smart Tools and/or iTools) Examples: –Customized products for decision makers –Specialized Dialogs for hazard attributes –Point and Areal Flood Warning need to be disseminated in pairs

Data Repositories (IRIS, GIS, etc.) Hazard Information Services  Temporal – Zoom In/Out Display Interface Services Hazard Information Services Strawman Implementation Approach

Hazard Information Services are built to fulfill the requirements for forecaster tools and partner needs. They will be built as an extendable framework with services to: –Allow forecasters to enter and modify short-term, long- term, and hydrological hazard information with a common look and feel through CAVE –Integrate data from various repositories such as IRIS, GIS, AWIPS II forecaster grids and other hazard information –View hazard information as a “thin-client” web application available to partners –Generate text and graphical products in standard and customized formats Hazard Information Services Strawman Implementation Approach

IRIS (Hazard info, spotter reports, Calls to Action) EDEX GIS Data Repositories.....  Spatial – Zoom In/Out Temporal – Zoom In/Out CAVE Forecaster Tools AWIPS II Hazard Information Services Strawman Implementation Approach Hazard Information Services

GIS Data Repositories.....  Spatial – Zoom In/Out Temporal – Zoom In/Out Web Application for Partners Hazard Information Services Strawman Implementation Approach Hazard Information Services Exported AWIPS II data IRIS (Hazard info, spotter reports, Calls to Action)

There will be a Display Interface so that logical operations can flow to and from Cave OR a Web Application. Possible roles: –GSD to work on the Hazard Information Services Framework –IRIS team to gather diverse hazard information and provide external services such as iNWS –ALL development organizations (GSD, NSSL, OHD, IRIS team, NCEP, NHC, MDL, etc.) to build services using framework Forecaster Tools (GSD) Threats in Motion (NSSL) ADVISOR (MDL) Legacy products Customized products and services Iterative, incremental development with rapid feedback from Beta sites NSSL Hazardous Weather Tested (HWT) to be used as a testbed Hazard Information Services Strawman Implementation Approach

Conceptual Development PrototypingImplementation Testing and Evaluation Operational Use Roles Researcher/Scientist Developer Forecaster Social Scientist Research-to-Operations Iteration/feedback Partner Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice Slide – Developed by Global Systems Division, Earth Systems Research Lab 2009

Identify how social scientists can engage most effectively Develop social science protocols – to introduce methods with potential projects Calls to actions, new website displays, development of new warning tools How can program evaluation be incorporated? As new products are in development – what already works, what do various partners need Develop experiments to test in Hazardous Weather Testbed with scenarios, with new probabilistic tools, with diverse communities Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice

Conceptual Development PrototypingImplementation Testing and Evaluation Operational Use Roles Researcher/Scientist Developer Forecaster Social Scientist Research-to-Operations Iteration/feedback Partner Emergency Managers Partner Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice Slide – Developed by Global Systems Division, Earth Systems Research Lab 2009

Review emergency managers decision support literature - OK First, CASA, International Association of Emergency Managers, journals, theses Review social networking literature – what decision contexts have already been studied relative to weather? Refine the time/space considerations and graphics following up with workshop participants from forecaster and emergency manager communities Starting with workshop evaluations Prepare proposal for DDF and elsewhere with GSD and HWT Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice Next Step: Emergency Manager Ethnography

Next steps – social networking research as part of emergency manager ethnography What: Investigate how community-based social networks influence hazardous weather decisions, with emphasis on space/time components Why: With a better understanding of how decisions are made, we can get the most out of new technologies, services, and infrastructure How: To apply network analysis to study emergency managers Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice

Emergency Manager study -to build better products, tools, and connections Publics Weather Forecasters Media Emergency Managers & 1 st Responders 6 Developers Researchers Weaving Social Science into Weather and Climate Research and Practice

Plan for Partner Collaboration Listserver Sub-committee on National Hazard Services Team –Follow through on action items from the workshop

Plan for Partner Collaboration Breakout one wish list from partners –More interaction with forecasters and social scientists –Input into service design –Customized and consistent products –Impact-based information Actions –Listserver (hazard_info_services) –Sub-team on Hazard Services Team (define text and graphic outputs) Spatial – Zoom In/Out Web Application for Partners Hazard Information Services

Requirements to OSIP Proposed Timeline Testing Begins Gate 2 ConOps Requirements Gate 4 Deployment Begins Gate 3 Technical Requirements Phase 2 Addition of National Centers

Summary Workshop demonstrated Research to Operations process Involved Social Science in development process Engaged Partners Move toward unifying developers Short and Long-term Implementation Plans DDF funding that will likely lead to future funding

Thanks! We’re off to a great start