STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2008* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *To be updated after the December.

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Presentation transcript:

STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2008* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *To be updated after the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.

GENERAL REVENUE TRENDS Income vs. Expenditures (In Millions) Actual Collections Appropriations $621.3 $772.8 $527.2 $429.1 $428.3 OFFICIAL ESTIMATE $7,553m $6,598m $6,914m Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2003 thru FY-2009 – Ave. 6.16% Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2009) – Ave. 3.84% Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP increases (est. 10%) and ROADS increases (08 Session) Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2003 thru FY-2009 Official Estimate – Ave. 3.96% $6,797m $297.5

General Revenue Fund Sources Based on OSU Econometric Model Projections (In Millions) Ave.8.1% Growth Ave. 10.3% Growth Ave. 5.3% Growth Ave. 4.2% Growth Ave. 1.8% Growth BASED ON OSF OFFICIAL ESTIMATE BASED ON OSU ECONOMETRIC MODEL PROJECTIONS FY-2011 – FY-2013 SOURCES ARE SHOWN AS TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING

Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources (In Millions) *6.8% *6.3% *7% *5.3% *Based on OSU Econometric Model projections. No adjustments for OHLAP or ROADS funding. (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)