STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES (OMES – formerly Office of State Finance) November 1, 2013* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *To be updated after official release of documents from the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.

GENERAL REVENUE TRENDS Income vs. Expenditures (In Millions) Actual Collections Appropriations $527.2 $297.3 ($104.3) $503 $596.1 OFFICIAL ESTIMATE – FY14 $6,726.8m $6,572.1m $6,566.8m Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2013 – Ave. 3.38% Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY-2014) – Ave. 2.76% Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP (est. 3.5%) and ROADS increases Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2014 Actuals – Normalized Ave. 4.12% $6,902.8m $298.9 $156.9 $429.1 Revenue and expenditure growth rates are based on trends from OMES actual numbers and effects of current law. $5,889.3 PROJECTIONS

General Revenue Fund Sources Trend Based Projections, In Millions (TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) Ave. 6.3% Growth Ave. 19.7% Growth Ave. 1.3% Growth Ave. 5.3% Growth Ave. 2% Growth OMES ACTUALS 10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND–BASED PROJECTIONS FY-2015 – FY-2016 SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS JUNE BOE EST.

General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources (In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year) 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 12.6% (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax) (TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) 1.1% 10.6% 7.5% ACTUALS Based on OMES 10-Yr Normalized Trend- Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits, plus OHLAP & ROADS Funding 7.2% JUNE BOE ESTIMATE