Injury in Traffic – a Grossly Under- emphasized Problem Worldwide Leonard Evans President, Science Serving Society President-Emeritus, International Traffic Medicine Association Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, USA Devoted to adding reason and knowledge to public policy ScienceServingSociety.com

Injury in Traffic – a Grossly Under- emphasized Problem Worldwide

Bow of Titanic – 3.8 km under Atlantic Ocean. Photographed 2 Sept by Leonard Evans

Scene from 2000 Chinese movie The Road Home, (director Zhang Yimou)

Summarizes what science has taught about traffic safety

Bow of Titanic – 3.8 km under Atlantic Ocean. Photographed 2 Sept by Leonard Evans 1500 Fatalities

 1.2 million people killed each year on the world’s roads Harm from traffic - almost incomprehensible magnitude  Injures vastly outnumber fatalities  Victims mainly healthy young people

 Key is knowledge gained from science What can be done to reduce this enormous harm?  A solid edifice of knowledge exists  Scientific literature since 1930s has papers on traffic safety  Is too often ignored – with tragic results

Science shows that:  Overwhelmingly, public policy addressing driver behavior has the greatest effect on casualties

Effects of speed 1. Risk of crashing increases with increasing travel speed 2. If crash occurs, risk of injury increases with increasing speed 3. If injury occurs, risk that it is fatal increases with travel speed 1% increase in travel speed increases the risk of a fatal crash by at least 4%

Internatioonal comparisons offer insights into best ways to reduce harm in traffic

2013 value is 40% below 1972 maximum (32,719 down from 54,589) Advances in trauma care make major contribution

This is 83.7% below The Netherlands’ all time high of 3,264 in 1972 The Netherlands had 546 traffic deaths in 2013 If US total had fallen by 83.7% from its high, US total in 2013 would be 8,875 (instead of 32,719 observed) More than 20,000 additional Americans are killed annually because US fails to match decline in Netherlands (+ 10 other countries)

USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:

 Vehicle factors are important USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:

 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:

 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors  Roadway factors are important USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:

 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors  Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:

 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors  Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:  Driver performance factors are importantctors

 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors  Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:  Driver performance factors are important, but less important than driver behavior factors factors

This study, in agreement with earlier research, implies that there are over 200,000 annual traffic deaths in China. How can this number be reduced? Two recomendations Conclusion

1 Create data-collecting agency  USA data set FARS is good model 2 Create traffic-safety research organization  Goal - accuracy and completeness  Supported by government, but largely independent of government  Best model is SWOV in the Netherlands  Make solicited and unsolicited science-based recommendations  Evaluate safety programs (implementation and evaluation must be kept separate)  Goal – highest quality objective scientific research  40+ years of ongoing improvement  Free, comprehensive, and simple on web

Concluding comments  Traffic causes enormous numbers of injuries and deaths  Traffic-safety science can sharply reduced these numbers  Reliable data  “Disinterested” quality analysis  This requires