Sustainability and Climate Change: Trends and Solutions Jonathan Lash World Resources Institute

Millennial N. Hemisphere (AD ) Source: IPCC TAR

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Concentrations Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September See

Global CO 2 Emissions Growth

August 28, 2005 Photo Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Trends

The Frequency of Weather Related Disasters Data: Swiss Re 2005

Dramatic Changes: An Ice-free Arctic? : Progressive Loss of Arctic Ice

Antarctic Ice

New Patterns of Pest Damage The New York Times, June 25, 2002

Amazon Drought

1960 – World’s 6 th largest lake 1963 – 2001 shrunk 95%, wetlands spoilt Source: UNEP – ONE PLANET MANY PEOPLE: Atlas of our Changing Environment Lake Chad Water withdrawals from rivers/lakes doubled since 1960

Changes in Ocean Circulation Transect at 23º N latitude –Measurements taken in 1957, 1981, 1992, 1998, 2004 Indicates a 30% reduction in ocean circulation volume since 1957 Source: Ocean current figure: Transect information: Bryden, Harry L. et al. "Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N." Nature 438: December 2005

That’s What One Degree Gets Us Where to Next?

Projections of CO2 and Temperature to 2100

Drought Expectations The Palmer Index is most effective in determining long term drought—a matter of several months —and is not as good with short-term forecasts (a matter of weeks). It uses a 0 as normal, and drought is shown in terms of minus numbers; for example, minus 2 is moderate drought, minus 3 is severe drought, and minus 4 is extreme drought.

Scenario of damages in 2050 Source: The Guardian, based on Pentagon report

People at Risk from a 44 cm sea-level rise by the 2080s (Assuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection) Source: IPCC TAR.

A More Poisonous Poison Ivy

Temperature Projections and Risk

Assumed Advances In Fossil Fuels Energy intensity Nuclear Renewables The “Gap” Gap technologies E.g. CCS Stabilizing CO 2 Base Case and “Gap” Technologies Source: Jae Edmonds, PNNL/Univ MD

Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year Currently projected path Flat path Historical emissions 1.9  GtC/y 7 GtC/y Seven “wedges” Wedges O Source: Robert Socolw,

Energy Efficiency Coal-based Synfuels with CCS Wind power Reforestation Mass transit Stabilization Triangle GtC/y 14 GtC/y Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges Carbon Capture & Storage Adapted from: Robert Socolw, Biofuels

Managing Risk: Measure/Manage

Dupont Global Greenhouse Gases

Alcoa Inc. Cargill Dow LLC Delphi Corporation Dow Chemical Company DuPont FedEx Kinko's General Motors IBM Interface Johnson & Johnson NatureWorks LLC Pitney Bowes Staples Starbucks GPMDG

GE: Ecomagination

Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing

Real-world examples Brazil Biofuels for transport Reducing the economic impact of oil imports and supporting the rural economy China Innovative transport approaches Promoting mobility while avoiding urban infrastructure and oil supply constraints South Africa Carbon capture and storage Finding ways to reduce the impact of coal in developing countries India Renewable energy in rural electrification Providing electricity faster and safer to 500 million people

Farmer demonstrations in India around electricity access and pricing

Electrification will have a major impact on climate change without new policies and approaches IEA, 2003 Million people without electricity

New York City circa 1950

New York City December 2001