SECURENV – Future security threats and the environment: from bioengineering to environmental crime Essen Security Innovation Symposium Irina Comardicea | adelphi Essen, 5 October 2010 Tonia Pöppler / pixelio.de RSA.org The Sydney Morning Herald

1.The SECURENV project a.Goals b.Preliminary findings 2.State of Foresight process a.Delphi Survey b.Scenario-building workshop 2 Agenda

The SECURENV Project 3 “Assessment of environmental accidents from a security perspective” Funding: EU FP7 “Coordination and support” action Duration: 2 years May 2009 – April 2011 Consortium of 3 Partners: Geonardo Environmental Technologies Ltd. – Hungary adelphi – Germany Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) – Sweden

The SECURENV Project – Goals 4 Review and analyse past environmental accidents, catastrophes and events & Identify novel and emerging threats on the environment as well as the technological opportunities Develop an appropriate foresight methodology for developing potential scenarios involving environmental terrorism Provide policy recommendations to European policy-makers and relevant expert and practitioner communities

5 SECURENV Inspiration

6 From accidents to intentional attacks Manipulating the environment is not new ‘Security’ and ‘environment’ linked in space and time Agriculture, animal domestication, plant cultivation: foundations for complex societies Environment as a target or a weapon during times of war

7 SECURENV Selected Findings Environmental crime  Environmental terrorism “Forest Jihad”?

8 SECURENV Selected Findings Agroterrorism Increased vulnerability Open access infrastructure for food and water Intense farming and livestock rearing Damages to food supply, health, authority Hoaxes! Kansas Farm Bureau University of Pennsylvania

9 SECURENV Selected Findings Synthetic Biology Artificially created organisms, etc. Exponential technological advances Biohacking and democratisation of knowledge Unknown consequences and poor system understanding Hoaxes! Source: after Matthews and Turner, 2009 Human Intervention Environmental Impacts unintentional action additional intentional action Low system understanding High system understanding

The SECURENV Project – Goals 10 Review and analyse past environmental accidents, catastrophes and events & Identify novel and emerging threats on the environment as well as the technological opportunities Develop an appropriate foresight methodology for developing potential scenarios involving environmental terrorism Provide policy recommendations to European policy-makers and the intelligence community

11 SECURENV Foresight Why a Foresight? Future challenges and changes can come from abrupt shocks as well as long-term trends Shocks can be the product of long-term trends  can be anticipated  SECURENV uses foresight methods and scenario-building techniques “a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision building process”

12 SECURENV – Delphi Survey April 2010 Delphi Round 1 June 2010 Delphi Round 2 Nov 2010 Scenario Workshops Jan 2011 Final Workshop Background Research Based on the background research, brainstorming Used as input to the scenario workshop Included more than 740 experts in round 1 and more than 120 in round 2 12 questions covering a range of topics

13 SECURENV – Delphi Survey 3-4 November, Stockholm Around 40 experts from environment and security fields Looking at Delphi topics in the context of 3 established European security scenarios (FORESEC), among which: Environmental infrastructures Geoengineering technologies Genetically modified organisms Expect the output of priority challenges for the EU and the creation of 2-3 SECURENV-specific scenarios April 2010 Delphi Round 1 June 2010 Delphi Round 2 Nov 2010 Scenario Workshops Jan 2011 Final Workshop Background Research

Thank you! 14 SECURENV Balazs Bodo | Project Coordinator Geonardo, Budapest Hungary adelphi Irina Comardicea | Project Manager adelphi, Berlin Germany