Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures Jonathan C. Peck President & Senior Futurist June 13, 1014.

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Presentation transcript:

Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures Jonathan C. Peck President & Senior Futurist June 13, 1014

LEARNING OBJECTIVES Understand Why Aspirations Matter Explore Uncertainty in Alternative Scenarios Assess Nursing Likelihoods and Preferences Envision Nursing for Health & Wellbeing

Aspirations Model

IAF’s approach: Aspirational Futures

Forecasts Across Four Scenarios Macro environment US economy Culture Government Health Definition Status Locus Health Care Health Care Delivery Health Insurance Coverage Health Information Technology National Health Care Spending/GDP

Scenario #1 Slow Reform, Better Health Personalized medicine – with clouds of data Many diseases prevented

Scenario #1 Slow Reform, Better Health Innovations: Avatars & Adaptive trials Focus on health Social Determinants Greater Disparities

Scenario 1: Slow Reform, Better Health

Scenario #2 Health If You Can Get It 2013: Policy failures; Recession; Cuts to Medicare and Medicaid Economic Gaps Grow Political Extremes Pronounced Pessimism, Family Burdens

Scenario #2 Health If You Can Get It 2020: 75 million uninsured Business ethics trump medical ethics Affluent get medical advances Poor get crowded ERs & Minute Clinics

Scenario 2: Health If You Can Get It

Scenario #3 Big Data, Big Health Gains Cultural shifts affect health, policy and care to change local economics Success: ending food deserts, e.g., Harlem Children’s Zone Political change; shared vision; cooperation

Scenario #3 Big Data, Big Health Gains Local food & manufacturing “Personal data clouds”; Massive community data Prevention/ Preemption of chronic diseases; Models & Simulations; Adaptive Trials Personalized Vital Signs Digital health agents, gaming, social networking

Scenario #3 Big Data, Big Health Gains From PCMH to Community Centered Health Home Most providers integrated, capitated Healthy communities; self care d ecreases demand for physician services and hospital care Community Centered Health Home Triple Aim Effective self-care

Scenario 3: Big Data, Big Health Gains

Scenario #4 A Culture of Health Innate human drive for healthy growth Systems biology evolves into health ecology in all health domains Leaders creating environments for health

Scenario #4 A Culture of Health Boomers’ crisis creates focus on youth Reality TV shows what a “good death” looks like Health care incorporates new patient’s values

Scenario #4 A Culture of Health Health care spending capped locally Avatars for self-care reduce demand for medical interventions 2025: Unified Biological Systems Theory

Scenario 4: A Culture of Health

LikelihoodPreferability Scenario #1 Slow Reform, Better Health Scenario #2 Health If You Can Get It Scenario #3 Big Data, Big Health Gains Scenario #4 A Culture of Health Likelihood and Preferability

Recommend New Health Roles

Recommend Tech For Health Metrics

Recommend New Leadership

Recommend Remove Barriers to Health

From 2032 Back To 2014 Imagine Nurses Created A Culture of Health and Wellbeing in What would you be doing in 2014 to help? Are there new health roles for nurses? How will you measure nursing progress? Who inspires you to shape nursing’s futures?

Thank you! Jonathan Peck President & Senior Futurist Institute for Alternative Futures