Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries: Anticipating Value Chain Transformations & Need for Policy Action Fabienne Abadie, IPTS Michael Friedewald, Fraunhofer, ISI Matthias Weber, ARCsys Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Background EPIS Project Rationale Supporting EU “i2010” Initiative for growth & jobs in IST Significance of the creative content industries for Europe ICTs - key driver for supply & demand of creative content industry Complex sector, under disruption and with high level of uncertainty Need for forward-looking intelligence building, with pan-European dimension, in order to deploy EU policy instruments to stimulate development of digital economy Objectives Development of observatory of trends in technology and business evolutions of ICT Running foresight exercise on ICT & Creative Content (CC) Industries Exploring specific implications for R&D policy in ICT

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries The Creative Content Sector Graphical definition Heavily industrialised services advertising & marketing, broadcasting, film industries, Internet and mobile content industry, music industries, electronic publishing and print, video & computer games Less industrialised activities museums and library services visual arts (painting & sculpture) performing arts, Other creative activities (crafts, fashion, design)

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Approach A Participatory Foresight Exercise Following an “adaptive foresight process” (M. Weber) – Adapting to changing context – Iterative monitoring – Including targeted strategy process Adjusted to needs of policy makers Embedded in the full policy cycle Multiple instruments for exploring future developments, impact on “social” & “economic” sustainability of CC sector and policy needs

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Methodology set-up Main elements Step 1 – Sector Analysis Step 2 – Delphi Survey Step 3 – Scenario-building Step 4 – Issues Analysis Step 5 – Policy Analysis

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Methodology set-up Main elements Step 1 – Sector Analysis Step 2 – Delphi Survey Step 3 – Scenario-building Step 4 – Issues Analysis Step 5 – Policy Analysis Sector Analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC value chain Project team IA

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 1 - Sector Analysis Key features Defining research scope Analysing key characteristics of creative content value chain General framework applied to each sub sector Analysis of content creation / distribution / consumption Assessment of European position Complemented through review of ICT innovation and analysis of user behaviour  Picture of emerging trends impacting the CC sector (incl. impact on sustainability)  Two potential diverging future paths, with different type of risks for the CC sector

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 1 - Findings Techno-economic trends Cheaper tools for reconfiguration/ experimentation & decentralised production Innovative business models Space agnostic nature of communications networks open new audiences and niche markets “Winner takes it all” dynamics Democratisation of the spotlight (long-tail effects) User attention and navigation issues User demand New vs. constant usage patterns Shift from individual to group dynamics Mobility Demographics & the young generations Social participation in creative activities Usability, communication and attention

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Methodology set-up Main elements Step 1 – Sector Analysis Step 2 – Delphi Survey Step 3 – Scenario-building Step 4 – Issues Analysis Step 5 – Policy Analysis Sector Analysis Realtime online Delphi ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC value chain Consensus vs controversial issues Project team Broad expert participation Impact Assessment

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 2 - Delphi survey Key features Internet-based, realtime Selection of theses Sample: –1111 experts – 426 visited site – 288 participated out of which 124 returned at least once Led to identification of topics not raising consensus but not suited to identify radically new developments Method based on weak signals identification perhaps better suited

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Methodology set-up Main elements Step 1 – Sector Analysis Step 2 – Delphi Survey Step 3 – Scenario-building Step 4 – Issues Analysis Step 5 – Policy Analysis Sector Analysis Realtime online Delphi Scenario development ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC value chain Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Consensus vs controversial issues Project team Broad expert participation Workshop ( restricted,experts) Impact Assessment Scenario 4

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 3 - Scenarios Process overview Sector analysis and Delphi results as input Restricted expert workshop Global context Selection of dimensions Four scenarios  Revised list of issues of relevance to assess impact of future socio-techno-economic trends on CC sector sustainability

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 3 – The Four Scenarios Competitive business environment Oligopolistic business environment Negative public attitude towards CC, lack of demand Positive public attitude towards CC, demand Incumbents take it all The open innovation society Society meets industry IT is not cool, get a life!

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Methodology set-up Main elements Step 1 – Sector Analysis Step 2 – Delphi Survey Step 3 – Scenario-building Step 4 – Issues Analysis Step 5 – Policy Analysis Sector Analysis Realtime online Delphi Scenario development Issues analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC value chain Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Consensus vs controversial issues Scenario analysis Project team Broad expert participation Workshop ( restricted,experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Impact Asessment Scenario 4

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 4 - Issues Analysis Process Open workshop with experts from different CC sub sectors Discussion structured around key elements of scenarios – Infrastructure – Practices of content production and distribution – Practices of content use – Interaction, interfaces and institutions Aim to detect implications of scenarios on players’ strategy, legal environment etc. Difficulty to reach consensus Analysis of impact on sustainability of CC sector

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Methodology set-up Main elements Step 1 – Sector Analysis Step 2 – Delphi Survey Step 3 – Scenario-building Step 4 – Issues Analysis Step 5 – Policy Analysis Sector Analysis Realtime online Delphi Scenario development Issues analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC value chain Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Consensus vs controversial issues Scenario analysis Project team Broad expert participation Workshop ( restricted,experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Scenario 4 Policy analysis Policy implications Workshop (restricted, client) Impact Assessment

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 5 – Policy Analysis Main results Final analysis to derive policy options Identified directions of change lead to policy challenges Cross-cutting issues require policy attention in various areas Challenges for policy include – Fostering ICT and creative skills – Fostering innovation

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Conclusion Impact Assessment framework cannot be fixed from the outset when sector studied is undergoing profound transformation High level of uncertainties makes it difficult even for experts to imagine future impacts Step-by-step approach successful to help understand the sector evolution Immediate impact of FTA limited but important issues raised FTA successful in generating several forward-looking perspectives Adaptive aspect of the methodology proved beneficial  Difficult to apply FTA (even adaptive) to a sector in turmoil Lessons learnt