U.S. International Travel Statistics OECD Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services Statistics Robert E. Yuskavage U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis October 4, 2010

2 Overview ▪ Background on BEA ▪ U.S. travel trends ▪ U.S. travel definitions ▪ International guidelines: U.S. conformance ▪ U.S. methods for travel estimates ▪ U.S. improvement efforts

3 BEA’s International Statistics ▪ The International Transactions Accounts (ITAs) summarize transactions between U.S. residents and nonresidents, including goods and services ▪ BEA publishes: ▪ Quarterly ITAs for the U.S. and 34 countries and areas ▪ Monthly goods and services statistics jointly with the U.S. Census Bureau ▪ Annual services trade statistics between the U.S. and 49 countries and areas

4 Travel and BEA’s Accounts ▪ Exports and imports of travel services are major components of the ITAs ▪ Included in the quarterly gross domestic product statistics in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts ▪ Important components of BEA’s Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts

5 Relative Size and Trends ▪ Travel exports account for about 20 percent of total U.S. services exports in recent years

6 Relative Size and Trends ▪ Travel imports account for about 20 percent of total U.S. services imports in recent years

7 Relative Size and Trends ▪ Travel as a share of total services trade peaked in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s ▪ It was nearly one-third of exports and imports services trade at that time ▪ Travel has consistently generated a surplus in the U.S. balance of payments, which peaked at $30 billion in 2008.

8 U.S. Travel Receipts - Top Partner Countries ▪ Canada tops the receipts list in 2009, reflecting its proximity to the United States

9 U.S. Travel Payments - Top Partner Countries ▪ Mexico tops the payments list, reflecting proximity and the popularity of its resorts

10 U.S. Travel Definitions ▪ U.S. ITAs define travel to include purchases of goods and services by ▪ U.S. travelers abroad ▪ Foreign travelers in the United States ▪ A traveler is a person who stays for a period of less than one year in a country of which he or she is not a resident ▪ Passenger fare receipts and payments are a separate category in the ITAs

11 International Guidelines: U.S. Conformance ▪ International guidelines recommend including expenditures of students and persons who travel abroad for medical care as travel ▪ BEA is considering updating its travel account to conform to these guidelines. ▪ Guidelines also recommend breaking out travel services by business and personal travel ▪ BEA will investigate whether adequate source data are available to provide this breakout.

12 U.S. Methods for Travel Estimates ▪ Travel receipts and payments for Mexico and Canada are obtained directly from those countries (mirror data) ▪ For other countries, travel expenditures are the product of number of travelers and average travel expenditures ▪ Counts of foreign travelers to the U.S. and U.S. residents abroad are obtained from U.S. immigration authorities. ▪ Information from the Survey of International Air Travel (SIAT) is used to estimate the average expenditures of travelers by country of origin and destination ▪ The SIAT is conducted monthly either in the departure gate or on-board scheduled flights departing the United States

13 Limitations of Methods ▪ Some aspects of the SIAT data limit its effectiveness for the travel account: ▪ Foreign visitors departing the United States may not accurately recall their travel expenditures ▪ U.S. travelers departing the United States may not be able to anticipate their travel expenditures ▪ Sample sizes are small for countries that are less popular destinations for U.S. travelers or that have few travelers to the United States ▪ The surveys cover a variety of travel-related topics, of which travel expenditures is only one

14 Limitations of Methods ▪ Some aspects of the traveler counts data limit their effectiveness for the travel account: ▪ Do not identify the purpose of the visit, i.e. whether business or personal ▪ Cover just the initial destination of the traveler ▪ Include some categories of travelers that should be excluded, such as diplomats ▪ Capture citizens rather than residents as recommended by balance of payments accounting guidelines

15 U.S. Improvement Efforts ▪ BEA is developing a methodology that combines ▪ New data on expenditures using credit, debit, and charge cards by U.S. travelers abroad and by foreign travelers in the United States with ▪ Information on the portion of total spending that travelers make using these types of cards. ▪ Credit card transactions can provide ▪ Accurate data drawn from business records ▪ Coverage of a significant portion of spending by travelers abroad and in the United States ▪ Expenditures by country of origin and destination

16 New Survey Instruments ▪ The BE-150, Quarterly Survey of Cross-Border Credit, Debit, and Charge Card Transactions ▪ Collects information on the card transactions of U.S. persons traveling abroad and of foreign persons traveling in the United States ▪ The BE-100, Survey of International Travel Expenditures ▪ One-time survey provides a basis for expanding results from the BE-150 survey to reflect transactions using all means of payment

17 Evaluation of Results ▪ Preliminary results indicate that the share of expenditures ranges from 35 to 65 percent across countries, with the average exceeding 50 percent ▪ BEA is reviewing the results to assess how best to combine data from the two new surveys ▪ Some issues for further investigation include: ▪ Robustness of the share of expenditures by card ▪ Variation across origin and destination countries ▪ Coverage of transactions conducted by card

18 Conclusion ▪ BEA’s current methodology is sound and has worked well over several decades and business cycle conditions ▪ Some limitations of the source data, however, have raised questions about the reliability of the statistics ▪ BEA has taken steps to address these concerns by ▪ Obtaining travel expenditures data directly from credit card companies and ▪ Obtaining information from travelers about their use of cards for travel expenditures ▪ BEA will evaluate how best to incorporate these new data into the official U.S. travel statistics in the balance of payments accounts