John Beddington Scott Bearden Patrick Lewis Lauren Frick Trevor McDonald

Thunder Mountain, Alaska (May 1999)  Malcolm Daly and Jim Donini  First climbers to attempt to reach summit  Almost made it to the top Something gave way  Fell several hundred feet Crippled his legs  Donini attempted self-rescue Descended 3,000 ft to base camp Waved down friend Paul Roderick of Talkeetna Air Taxi Saved further time, able to reach ranger station quicker  Rescue was organized Hours saved proved pivotal Beat storm that would last for 12 days

Luck vs. Skill  Role of luck The bad ○ Slipped on mountain, fell over 100 ft The good ○ Sliced rope not cut all the way through ○ Survived fall ○ Donini found friend Paul, flew to station  Daly prepared well in advance Physical training Mental training  “Decision to live”  Chose people he knew he could trust People who would risk their life for him  Luck did not save him in the end, people did

What is Luck?  A luck event has to meet three criteria Some significant aspect of the event occurs largely or entirely independent of the actions of the key actors in the enterprise The event has a potentially significant consequence (good or bad) The event has some element of unpredictability

Does Luck Matter?  The study showed: 10X companies did not generally get more good luck 10X companies did not generally have less bad luck 10X companies did not get their good luck earlier than other companies 10X companies cannot be explained by a single giant luck spike

Views On Luck  One view Luck is the primary cause of 10X success  Other view Luck plays no role in 10X success  Neither view is supported by any concrete evidence  The critical question is not “Are you lucky?” but “Do you get a high return on Luck?”

Four Possible Return On Luck Scenarios  Great return on good luck  Poor return on good luck Squandering luck  Great return on bad luck Where 10Xers differentiate themselves  Poor return on bad luck The one place no company wants to be

Outcome of ROL Scenarios  Good luck: a single stroke of good luck, no matter how good, cannot make a great company  Bad luck: a single detrimental event, or a chain of bad events, can halt a good company in their tracks

Keys From Past Chapters  Concepts from earlier in the book all contribute to having a good ROL Level 5 ambition ○ Fanatic discipline ○ Empirical creativity ○ Productive paranoia 20 Mile March Fire bullets, then cannonballs Leading above the death line

10X leaders  Leaders of 10X companies often credit good luck as a portion of their success. But they never place the blame for their failures on bad luck

Unexpected Findings  Some non-10X companies had better luck than 10X companies  Many 10X companies had to deal with a lot of bad luck, but still managed to have a very good ROL  “Who Luck” the luck of finding the right partner, mentor, teammate, etc. is the most beneficial kind of luck

Luck is Not a Strategy  “Managing Luck” involves four aspects Cultivating the ability to zoom out and recognize luck when it happens Developing the wisdom to see when, and when not, to let luck change your plans Being sufficiently well-prepared to endure the bad luck that will inevitably affect every company/industry Creating a positive return on luck – both good or bad – when it comes

 Trend in purchasing; away from normal paper books to online books on tablets, laptops, etc. Created the Kindle, multiple styles, multiple price points, multiple sizes to appeal to everyone Getting a good return on bad luck