2008 Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Commercial Space Transportation Forecast John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation May 16, 2008 Federal Aviation Administration

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 16, 2008 Federal Aviation Administration 1 1 Introduction The FAA Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) forecast includes payloads open to internationally competed launch services procurement, other commercially sponsored payloads and commercially competed launch services for the International Space Station. Payloads that generate launch demand; not secondaries Market demand; not a prediction of actual launches

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 16, 2008 Federal Aviation Administration 2 2 New to the 2008 NGSO Forecast Iridium 72 satellites (66 plus 6 spares), 12 total launches Current revenue is good, picking up some Globalstar customers, potentially more revenue from hosted payloads, and will select a satellite manufacturer in Spring New category: Orbital Facility Assembly and Services (OFAS) Regular commercial supply flights for the International Space Station Estimate based on: two launch providers, upmass capability of SpaceX’s Dragon and Orbital Sciences’ Cygnus, and the upmass model in the April 2008 NASA Request for Proposals document. Starts at 2, increasing to 4-5 launches per year COTS demonstration launches Bigelow Aerospace placeholder Bigelow will wait for a commercial vehicle capable of carrying people to orbit before launches of habitable modules. Could appear in a future forecast for launches of: Modules: Sundancer, a node/bus, and two BA-330 habitats Supply misions

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 16, 2008 Federal Aviation Administration 3 3 Satellite Forecast NGSO 276 total satellites, increase of 45% vs forecast of 191 Telecommunications is 53% of satellite market, Science/Other is 28%, Orbital Facility Assembly and Services is 10%, and Commercial Remote Sensing 9%.

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 16, 2008 Federal Aviation Administration 4 4 Launch Demand Forecast NGSO Average increase of 3 launches per year vs 2007 forecast (from 8 to 11) All new launches were Medium-Heavy class (8.1 per year) No new small launches in 2008 compared to 2007 (still 3 per year) 112 launches Increase of 38% compared to 2007 forecast vs. 81 in 2007 vs. 69 in 2006 vs. 64 in 2005 vs. 51 in 2004

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 16, 2008 Federal Aviation Administration 5 5 Sector Breakout Telecommunications is half the market (148 satellites) but only 21.5% of the launch demand – multiple-manifesting. Science is the only sector to decline from 2007: 44 launches in 2008 vs. 52 launches in mostly because of transfer of COTS launches into new OFAS category OFAS schedule could change based on contract selection and technical readiness.

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 16, 2008 Federal Aviation Administration 6 6 Mass Distribution for Near-Term Satellites Iridium Next satellite mass is to be determined First generation satellites weigh 640 kg each Could launch 6 satellites at a time (72 total satellites) ORBCOMM Generation 2 mass estimate kg each Could launch 6 satellites at a time (order of 18 satellites, up to 48 total)

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 16, 2008 Federal Aviation Administration 7 7 NGSO Near-Term Identified Manifest

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 16, 2008 Federal Aviation Administration 8 8 Notes and Trends Russia still leads with about 63% capture of the near-term NGSO launch services market ( ). Environmental first stage debris concerns cited by Uzbekistan have delayed Russian Dnepr launch of Thailand’s THEOS remote sensing satellite. Dnepr could relocate back to Baikonur from Yasny (Domborovsky) launch site. Only one delayed launch from 2007 did not carryover into South Africa’s SumbandillaSat was on Russian Shtil. South Korea plans first launch of KSLV small vehicle by end of European Satellite Radio added to forecast. Has been developing slowly, Ondas Media (based in Madrid) leads competition. Impact of possible XM and Sirius satellite radio merger is unclear so the forecast leaves previous Sirius NGSO plans in place. No new telecommunications systems to compete against ORBCOMM, Iridium and Globalstar.

NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 16, 2008 Federal Aviation Administration 9 9 Historical Launches and Forecast Sustained out-year activity in 2008 forecast