Enhancing Food Security Through Sustainable Natural Resources and Infrastructure Management for Agriculture from FAO Perspective APEC International Conference on Natural Resources and Infrastructure Management for Agriculture August 6-8, 2012, Bangkok, Thailand H. Konuma Assistant Director General FAO Regional Office for Asian and the Pacific Bangkok, Thailand

Outline of my presentation Review of current global and regional food security situation Outlook of future food security towards 2050 Challenges ahead Role of natural resource and infrastructure management for food security Recommendations and conclusions

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6 Poor consumers Proportion of poor ((living less than US$ 1.25/day) in total population dropped from 50% to 22% between 1990 and 2009 in Asia However, success in economic growth did not result in alleviating hunger, and resulted in Inequitable distribution of benefit of economic growth Widening income disparity and inequality at both in least developed and middle income countries Micro nutrient malnutrition affecting additional two billion people world-wide, particularly children More than one billion people over weight globally, suffering from diabetes and non-communicable diseases New factor influencing hunger : Food price hike and volatility affected poor consumers who spend a large portion (as much as %) of income for food

Food prices are high and volatile Food prices are high and volatile (still remains 2 times high from 10 years ago)

8 World population Source: UN, 2011

9 Food consumption (Kcal/person/day) Source: Alexandratos, 2011

10 Urbanization (60% of world population would live in cities by 2030, and nearly 70% by 2050) Source: UN, 2011

11 Past and projected increases in global production (food production need to increase by 60% (or 77% in developing countries alone) by 2050 Source: Bruinsma, 2011

12 Sources of production increase :91% ( or 85% for developing countries alone) is expected to come from existing arable land= environmental pressure Source: Bruinsma, 2011

Challenge for food security A huge task lies with countries and governments, international and national organizations, national research agricultural institutes, universities, and private sector, etc. to: 1. Increase the food production (sustainable intensification) to meet future demands 2. Cope with environmental pressure, and sustain and manage natural resources base 3. Improve people’s accessibility (especially for the poor) to food at affordable prices 4. Overcome existing challenges and constraints such as……………… 13

14 Only 5% (or 70million ha ) of existing arable land can be expanded mainly in Sub-Sahara Africa and Latin America towards 2050 Source: Bruinsma, 2011

15 Water scarcity and increasing water use for agriculture, which accounts 70% of total water use

– In Asia, by 2025, 15 million ha of irrigated lands would face “physical water scarcity” – Causes: Excess ground water extraction for agriculture Increased use by industries – Decline of water availability would Impact on: Agriculture Hydropower generation Industrial development Health sector Employment Water Shortages 16

17 Area equipped for irrigation (limited expansion by 6% (20million ha) by 2050 (million ha) Source: Bruinsma, 2011

– All human activity is based on land and soil resources – Productive economic factor in agriculture, forestry, grazing, fishing and mining – About 2 million hectares of rainfed and irrigated agricultural lands are lost annually 18 Land degradation

– Agricultural land covers 38 % of the world's land area, and arable land being only 1/3 rd of agricultural land – Per capita arable land availability over years ha per person ha per person ha per person - Land degradation due to climate change, manmade causes, salinization, acidification, over-exploitation coupled with land tenure systems, etc. lowers land productivity 19 On cultivable land area

India - loses 6,000 million tons of soil annually Soil erosion - Washington State Soil erosion at Kaiwaka, Northland Soil Erosion and Control Wind erosion

21 Stagnation of productivity growth: Yields need to increase over average 0.8%/year towards 2050, compared to 1.7% in past decades Source: Bruinsma, 2011

Loss of Forest Resources – More than half the earth's land area was once forested. But at present, it is less than one-third – Forests are cleared and degraded at a rate of hectares per week 22

Impact of reduced forest cover Loss of biodiversity (valuable gene pool), valuable timber and non-timber products, etc. Loss of soil carbon – leading to global warming & soil fertility decline Forests conserve water. Loss of water resources leading to crop failures & desertification( Increased soil erosion due to wind and rain Many others...

The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.

25 Many constraints affecting food production Droughts Floods Population in water shortage areas

26 “worse case” 2080 scenario: less harvested area, up to - 39% (World) and -29% (developing countries) up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011) Source: IPCC (2007) Negative impact of climate change

Constraints – weeds, insect pests & diseases Weeds Diseases Insect pestsNutrient deficiencies

Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999

World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production, in addition to competition of use of food grains between bio- ethanol and food/feed

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Food price volatility: Corn future market at Chicago Board of trade, in late July 2012 jumped over 50% in 6 weeks since June

Summary Resources may be sufficient to produce food for 9.2 billion people by 2050, but – huge investment agricultural research and infrastructure is required to increase productivity and remove constraints – Reduce post-harvest losses and waste --access to food by the poor remains a critical issue which requires targeted approach; safety net Yields increases may be attained, but natural resource base must be sustained and its management needs to be improved substantially to counteract competition,over use, etc Crude oil price hike, food price volatility, bio-fuel development, emergence of trans-boundary diseases and climate changes are major sources of uncertainty 33

Promote sustainable crop and agriculture intensification Maintain soil health by restoring the soil resources through natural processes, and judicious use of mineral fertilizers, organic materials, and crop species Conserve and promote the use of indigenous varieties that have been especially developed for specific ecological conditions and farm level situations Promote agricultural research and technology for adaptation and mitigation to climate changes 34 Recommendations

Promote climate smart agriculture to match the production needs with the changing environment using ecosystems approach Promote water management efficiency and water saving technology Enhance the institutional and human resource capacity to cope with crop and animal diseases Promote sustainable consumption and reduce food waste Improve farmer education for adoption of R&D findings Promote participatory natural resource management 35 Recommendations (2)…

Strengthen sustainable management of forests and tree species, with reforestation, protection of forest cover and use of agro-forestry systems Integrate crops and livestock for improving nutrient cycling Increase investments in technology, infrastructure development and dissemination of knowledge Strengthen policies and institutions to facilitate farmers, and for private sector to work complementarily Increase gender equity to access of resources, goods and services 36 Recommendations (3)…

Recommendations (4)….for infrastructure management for agriculture Promote irrigation expansion and rehabilitation, combined with irrigation modernization, promotion of water management efficiency and development of water saving technology Reduce post-harvest losses through the promotion of improved infrastructure including food storage, silos, load and transport, cold chains, preservation and processing facility, etc. Promote value chains and connectivity including the construction of markets, rural loads, transport facilities, etc. Develop sustainable farm mechanization and processing technology and strategies

Food security and nutritional security Strengthening agricultural production and rural development Enhancing equitable, productive and sustainable natural resource management and utilization Improving capacity to respond to food and agricultural threats and emergencies Coping with the impact of climate change on food and agriculture 38 Strategic priority areas

Agriculture is the key to food security and nutrition for all, and food is a essential basic human right which influences social stability and world security. Agriculture uses natural resources such as land and water,which are fundamental requirements for food production. Without sustainable natural resource management and infrastructure development, agriculture would unable to sustain nor produce sufficient food to meet the needs of growing population. The world is facing unprecedented challenge of food insecurity which requires concerted efforts and team work by all partners and all citizens on the planet. FAO is committed to work together and assist APEC member countries to achieve its goal to attain food security as a strong partner to ensure food for all for our future generations. 39 Conclusions

Thank you