Ensemble Forecasting: Thorpex-Tigge and use in Applications Tom Hopson.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

WTF-CEOP JAXA Prototype Demo (Coordinated Energy and water cycle Observation Project) May 23, 2007 Satoko Horiyama MIURA – JAXA Ben Burford - RESTEC.

Advertisements

Slide 1 TIGGE-LAM Workshop Bologna Jan TIGGE-LAM: Archiving at ECMWF Manuel Fuentes Data and Services Section ECMWF.

The International TIGGE Archive Baudouin Raoult, Manuel Fuentes - ECMWF Steven Worley, Doug Schuster - NCAR Bian Xiaofeng, Li Xiang - CMA Many Others!

ECMWF June 2006Slide 1 Access to ECMWF data for Research Manuel Fuentes Data and Services Section, ECMWF ECMWF Forecast Products User Meeting.

New Resources in the Research Data Archive Doug Schuster.

The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Richard Swinbank, Zoltan Toth and Philippe Bougeault, with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group.

Slide 1 TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006 Slide 1 TECO on the WIS: Stakeholder Session THORPEX and TIGGE Walter Zwieflhofer ECMWF.

Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.

GEO Work Plan Symposium 2014 WE-01 Jim Caughey THORPEX IPO.

EGU 2011 TIGGE, TIGGE LAM and the GIFS T. Paccagnella (1), D. Richardson (2), D. Schuster(3), R. Swinbank (4), Z. Toth (3), S.

THEME[ENV ]: Inter-operable integration of shared Earth Observation in the Global Context Duration: Sept. 1, 2011 – Aug. 31, 2014 Total EC.

TIGGE Data Archive and Access System at NCAR 5th GIFS-TIGGE Working Group South African Weather Service Pretoria March 2008 Steven Worley Doug Schuster.

CEOP Coordinated Energy and water cycle Observation Project May 14, 2007 Ryousuke Shibasaki – UT Ben Burford - RESTEC.

Current status of development of TIGGE products and support to SWFDP KYOUDA Masayuki 1, YAMAGUCHI Munehiko 2, and MATSUEDA Mio 3 1: Japan Meteorological.

1 Buizza et al: TIGGE (SRNWP WS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005) TIGGE (The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) Roberto Buizza 1, Philippe Bougeault 1,

Project title: Google African Meningitis Project Goal: Provide weather forecast information to the World Health Organization, Benin Chad, Nigeria, Togo,

Slide 1 TIGGE phase1: Experience with exchanging large amount of NWP data in near real-time Baudouin Raoult Data and Services Section ECMWF.

Page 1 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble David Richardson Met Office, Exeter.

Geneva 2-3 December 2011 Proposal for a sub-seasonal research data set.

Celeste Saulo and Juan Ruiz CIMA (CONICET/UBA) – DCAO (FCEN –UBA)

THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) China Meteorological Administration TIGGE-WG meeting, Boulder, June Progress on TIGGE Archive Center.

CAS AREP 1 WMO DPM Programme Coordination Meeting, 4-6 December, Geneva COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERC SCIENCES (CAS) ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH AND ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME.

Analyzed Data Products Available from NCAR that Support Marine Climate Research JCOMM ETMC-III 9-12 February 2010 Steven Worley Doug Schuster.

Research Results from TIGGE and a Vision for a New Paradigm for Global Prediction David Parsons Chief, World Weather Research Division (WWRD)

1 Takuya KOMORI 1 Kiyotomi SATO 1, Hitoshi YONEHARA 1 and Tetsuo NAKAZAWA 2 1: Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 2: Typhoon Research.

TIGGE, an International Data Archive and Access System Steven Worley Doug Schuster Dave Stepaniak Nate Wilhelmi (NCAR) Baudouin Raoult (ECMWF) Peiliang.

TIGGE and operational EPS 経田正幸 KYOUDA Masayuki Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 9 th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group meeting.

The TIGGE experience Richard Swinbank and Masayuki Kyouda with thanks to members of GIFS-TIGGE WG & THORPEX IPO S2S project planning group meeting, Exeter,

Content, Discovery, and Accessibility Enhancements to the NCAR Research Data Archive Doug Schuster and Steve Worley NCAR.

The NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System NOMADS The NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System NOMADS Dave Clark for Glenn.

ECMWF – DCPC Status and plans© ECMWFSlide 1 ECMWF DCPC status and plans Baudouin Raoult Head of Meteorological Data Section.

Munehiko Yamaguchi Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency 9:00 – 12: (Thr) Topic.

GEO - Weather Ocean Water Proposed Weather SBA and cross-linking work packages.

Progress of CMA TIGGE Archive Data center (updated) Bian Xiaofeng,Li Xiang,Sun Jing (National Meteorological Information Centre,CMA) Chen Jing Hu Jiangkai,

TIGGE Data Archive and Access at NCAR November 2008 November 2008 Steven Worley National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.

Slide 1 GO-ESSP Paris. June 2007 Slide 1 (TIGGE and) the EU Funded BRIDGE project Baudouin Raoult Head of Data and Services Section ECMWF.

TIGGE Data Archive at NCAR 8th GIFS-TIGGE Working Group World Meteorological Organization Geneva February, 2010 Doug Schuster Steven Worley Dave.

TIGGE Archive Status at NCAR THORPEX Workshop and 6th GIFS-TIGGE Working Group Meetings WMO Headquarters Geneva September 2008 Steven Worley Doug.

Slide 1 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project 1 “Bridging the gap between weather and climate”

Verification of ensemble precipitation forecasts using the TIGGE dataset Laurence J. Wilson Environment Canada Anna Ghelli ECMWF GIFS-TIGGE Meeting, Feb.

TIGGE Archive Access at NCAR Steven Worley Doug Schuster Dave Stepaniak Hannah Wilcox.

Proposed THORPEX/HEPEX Hydrologic Ensemble Project (THEPS) Presentation for 3 rd THORPEX Science Symposium September 14-18, 2009 Prepared by John Schaake,

Forecasting systems WMO Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme David Burridge.

Using TIGGE Data to Understand Systematic Errors of Atmospheric River Forecasts G. Wick, T. Hamill, P. Neiman, and F.M. Ralph NOAA Earth System Research.

THORPEX THORPEX (THeObserving system Research and Predictability Experiment) was established in 2003 by the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress. THORPEX.

The TIGGE Model Validation Portal: An Improvement in Data Interoperability 1 Thomas Cram Doug Schuster Hannah Wilcox Michael Burek Eric Nienhouse Steven.

Google Meningitis Modeling Tom Hopson October , 2010.

Tom Hopson, NCAR (among others) Satya Priya, World Bank

Status of CMA S2S Archiving & Web portal

Precipitation Data: Format and Access Issues

Contributing Centres to S2S database

Tom Hopson, NCAR (among others) Satya Priya, World Bank

Ensemble Forecasting: Calibration, Verification, and use in Applications Tom Hopson.

TIGGE Archives and Access

Precipitation Products Statistical Techniques

TIGGE Data Archive and Access System at NCAR

Use of TIGGE Data: Cyclone NARGIS

Jennifer Boehnert Emily Riddle Tom Hopson

Meningitis Forecasting using Climate Information Tom Hopson

Google Meningitis Modeling

Links with GEO.

Development and Futures of Research Data Archives

TIGGE Data Archive at NCAR

GIFS-TIGGE project Richard Swinbank, and Young-Youn Park,

Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System

MODIS Polar Winds Forecast Impact (3DVAR) Northern Hemisphere

Steven Worley, Douglas Schuster,

Implementation and Plans for TIGGE at NCAR and ECMWF

CXML data exchange Beth Ebert

Data Curation in Climate and Weather

Presentation transcript:

Ensemble Forecasting: Thorpex-Tigge and use in Applications Tom Hopson

Outline I.Thorpex-Tigge data set II.Ensemble forecast examples: a)Southwestern African flooding

TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble component of the World Weather Research Programme TIGGE archive consists of ensemble forecast data from ten global NWP centers designed to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1- day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. starting from October 2006 available for scientific research near-real time forecasts (some centers delayed) THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble

Archive Status and Monitoring, Data Receipt Archive Centre Current Data Provider NCAR NCEP CMC UKMO ECMWF MeteoFrance JMA KMA CMA BoM CPTEC IDD/LDM HTTP FTP Unidata IDD/LDM Internet Data Distribution / Local Data Manager Commodity internet application to send and receive data NCDC

Archive Status and Monitoring, Variability between providers

Archive Status and Monitoring, Archive Completeness PL = Pressure Level, PT = 320K θ Level, PV = ± 2 Potential Vorticity Level, SL = Single/Surface Level VariableLvLECWFUKMOJMANCEPCMACMCBOMMetFKMACPTC Geopotential ZPL Specific HPL T U-velocityPL V-velocityPL Potential VorPT Potential TPV U-velocityPV V-VelocityPV U 10mSL V 10mSL CAPESL Conv. Inhib.SL Land-seaSL Mean SLPSL Orog.SL Skin TSL Snow D. H20SL Snow F. H20SL

Archive Status and Monitoring, Archive Completeness VariableLvLECWFUKMOJMANCEPCMACMCBOMMetFKMACPTC Soil Moist.SL Soil TSL Sunshine D.SL Surf. DPTSL Surf. ATmaxSL Surf. ATminSL Surf. ATSL Surf. PSL LW Rad. OutSL LH fluxSL Net RadSL Net Therm. RadSL Sensible Rad.SL Cloud CovSL Column WaterSL PrecipitationSL Wilt. PointSL Field Cap.SL PL = Pressure Level, PT = 320K θ Level, PV = ± 2 Potential Vorticity Level, SL = Single/Surface Level

Outline I.Motivation for ensemble forecasting and post- processing a)Introduce Quantile Regression (QR; Kroenker and Bassett, 1978) post-processing procedure II.Ensemble forecast verification III.Thorpex-Tigge data set IV.Ensemble forecast examples: a)Southwestern African flooding b)African meningitis c)US Army test range weather forecasting d)Bangladesh flood forecasting

Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa

-- examine ens forecasts … ECMWF 24hr precip

Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa -- examine ens forecasts … NCEP GEFS 24hr precip

Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa -- examine ens forecasts … ECMWF 5-day precip

Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa -- examine ens forecasts … NCEP GEFS 5day precip