Weather Outlook 2015 & Beyond Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University

Corn/Soybean Market Market @9am 4 Jun 2015 ELEC. CORN[10] Jul-15 360'4 -0'4 Dec-15 378'4 -0'4 expect Dec @ $ 385' ELEC. SOYBEANS[10] Jul-15 942'4 -1'2 Nov-15 921'0 -1'0 expect Nov @ $ 825' Market @9am 4 Jun 2015

SOI 3 Jun 2015 = -9.2 (-10 is full strength El Niño) http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ SOI 3 Jun 2015 = -9.2 (-10 is full strength El Niño)

High risk Moderate High Beyond High risk Moderate High

El Niño Friend of the Midwest farmer. Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino tends to be a Christmas event that may or may not persist through the Midwest growing season).

Moderate El Niño Strong La Niña http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.asp

Summer Temperature 2010 This is OPPOSITE of past 3 years

La Niña : Extremes

La Niña: 70% chance of yield smaller than the trend. Neutral: 52% chance of yield greater than the trend. El Niño: 70% chance of yield greater than the trend.

(Oct to date) October 2009 El Niño To La Niña October 2010 to 2012 Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA El Niño To La Niña October 2010 to 2012 .

Return to El Niño

US Corn Wisner 195 81 146 159 $4.85 178 162.3 165 $4.15 170 $3.85 * * Central. IA $3.35 Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/soyyld.asp

US Soybean Wisner 23 59 40 41 $10.70 50 45 44 $8.50 46 $8.25 * * Central. IA $7.70 Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”

Weather Volatility Climate RISK in Agriculture is likely to be greater during the next 20 years Management of RISK is of increasing importance

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif

Beyond

A Little on the USA: Continental Divide Anomaly

Boundary is the Continental Divide, do NOT expect change

END Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University Climatologist WWW.twitter.com/elwynntaylor On Google: Where is elwynn