Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN Office: Toll Free: Fax: Bi-Monthly Market Review “Comprehensive Investing Strategies in 2014” (Solving Investors’ Dilemmas) March 20, Ted A. Pavlovich, WMS President/Wealth Mgmt. Advisor
INTRODUCTION TED A. PAVLOVICH 2
OUR NEW TEAM AT BWCA KEVIN M. WILSON 3 Matt TimpaneBret GitarNate Weiland
SOLVING THE 401K PROBLEM FOR CLIENTS 4 TED A. PAVLOVICH
Some Plans Make All Of The Decisions For You – But What If You Have To Decide?
6 You May Have Some Choices To Make On What To Own And How Much To Own 1. Process 2. Allocation
7 Trends Can Last A While, But Then Change Rather Suddenly
8 We’re Different…. …We Do Our Best To Ring-Fence Your Risk
PEELING THE ONION ON ASSET ALLOCATION 9 KEVIN M. WILSON
10 There Are Various Risk Factors To Consider
11 Stocks Appear Over-Valued
12 Stock Prices Regress To The Mean S & P 500
13 How We Deal With All This
14 Momentum, Value, L/S, Yield/Carry Cliff Asness Mom. Val. L/S Y/C
15 Alternative Bond & Stock Strategies Can Cut Risk Levels
16 Fundamentals Help Us Pick Stocks
REVISED OUTLOOK FOR KEVIN M. WILSON
All Useful Measures Indicate Over-Valued Markets
19 But Some Trend Indicators Have Not Yet Peaked (e.g., New Highs-New Lows)
20 And Other Trend Indicators Have Also Not Yet Peaked (e.g., Cum. Advance-Decline)
21 On The Other Hand, There Are Some Divergences
22 There Are Other Factors To Consider: 1) Margin Debt at $453 Billion 2) Insider Selling Is Setting Records 3) IPO’s Are Increasingly Frothy 4) Copper & Iron Ore Prices Falling 5) Profit Margins Very High 6) Share Buybacks Decreasing 7) Cash Inflows Slower Than In 2013
SUMMARY 23 KEVIN M. WILSON 1.We’re Able To Help With Retirement Plans 2.Our Tactical Segmentation Approach Limits Risk 3.Markets Will Correct Soon, But The Bull Run May Continue 4. Volatility May Return To Markets
Q & A 24 KEVIN M. WILSON TED A. PAVLOVICH
This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or commodity and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, for its accuracy and interpretation are not guaranteed. Investing in securities involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of guarantee of future performance and no representation, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The firm does not provide tax advice; clients should contact their attorney, accountant, or other tax adviser regarding tax matters. “BWCA is a state registered investment adviser in all states in which it is required to be registered. All Blue Water Capital Advisors’ customer assets are held in the customer name with Fidelity Institutional Services, clearing through National Financial Services (NFS), Member SIPC, a Fidelity Investments Company as Qualified Custodian.” Disclaimer 25