Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 (ET 2050) Philippe Doucet ERRIN Conference “Smart specialisation, integrated strategies and territorial cohesion: tension or synergies” 27 September Brussels

The ESDP process: , 14 ministerial meetings

“What needs to be done and where?”: no answer... in the Territorial Agenda 2007 (adopted in 2007 in Leipzig) in the Territorial Agenda 2020 (adopted in 2011 in Gödöllő) in the Baltic Sea Region and Danube Region Strategies in the Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion No map displaying geographically-differentiated policy objectives

But some attempts were made, for example: Europe 2030 (Conference of Peripheral and Maritime Areas CPMR, 2002)

Eurocities: European Territorial Vision and Framework (ETVF) “Giving Spatial Expression to the Concept of Territorial Cohesion”

All these exercises were tricky, and no formal attempt has ever been made in the framework of the EU economic, social and territorial cohesion policy. However, the ESPON 2006 programme, launched in 2002, was meant to provide technical support to the Territorial Agenda process, hence to contribute to a geographically differentiated policy approach. ESPON 2006 = “European Spatial Planning Observation Network”. ESPON 2013 = “European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion”. ESPON 2006, Project 3.2 : “Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe”.

ESPON Project 3.2 (published May 2007)

ESPON Project 3.2 “Roll-back scenario”

Goal: supporting policy makers in formulating a long-term integrated and coherent VISION for the development of the EU territory from 2010 up to ESPON 2013 Programme: ET2050 Project ET 2050 stands for: « Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 (ET 2050) »

ET2050 Consortium MCRIT, LP Andreu Ulied Oriol Biosca Rafael Rodrigo TERSYN (Jacques Robert) IGEAT Valérie Biot Philippe Doucet Vincent Calay RKK Ivan Illes Katalin Süle S&W Michael Wegener Klaus Spiekermann POLIMI Roberto Camagni Roberta Capello Ugo Fratesi IOM Marek Kupiszewski Dorota Kupiszewska RIKS Jaspers de Vliet Hedwig van Delden Nordregio Alexandre Dubois University of Thessaly (UTH) Harry Coccosis WSE Jacek Szlachta ISIS Carlo Sessa ERSILIA Jaume Jorba ESPON CU Sara Ferrara Marjan van Herwijnen Sounding Board Patrick Salez Karl Peter Schon

Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what would we like to happen?) ET2050 Methodology

Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?) State of progress (1 st Interim Report)

ET2050 work plan Late Sept. 2012

Tasks already performed (First Interim Report) 1. Analysis of Present State (16 reports) By Sectors (demography, economy, energy, transport, land-uses, environment, governance) By Territories (9 macro-zones covering EU+NC) By European Policies (Cohesion, Agricultural, Transport, Environment…) 2.Critical Bifurcations ahead (aprox. 25) 3.Definition of Key Directions ( aprox. 15 Trends + 15 Policies) 4.Comparison of Baseline Scenarios (aprox. 100 future-oriented studies) 5.Foresight exercise ( in d icators at World/EU scale ( , indicators) 6.Forecast exercise (indicators at NUTS3) Sectoral models (MULTIPOLES, MASST, MOSAIC-TT, METRONAMICA) and Integrated model (SASI) 7.Analysis of results and adjustment of Baseline Scenario

Baseline Reference World Indicators

Baseline R&D Indicators SectorHorizonOfficial European Target Base -line Assumption R&D / innovation 2020 From 1.8% to 3% of the EU's GDP (public and private combined) to be invested in R&D 1,9%Does not comply

Wellfare (in average) Break-up Worse-case Scenario for ST (All Lost) Limited Federalism Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario (Most Win ) 1992 Federalism (Superstate) Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario Euro-crisis Critical Bifurcation

Wellfare (in average) Break-up Worse-case Scenario (All Lost) Baseline BAU (no Reforms) Scenario Limited Federalism Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario 1992 Federalism (Superstate) Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario Euro-crisis Critical Bifurcation

ET 2050 Scenario – Territory Matrix First tentative outline !

VISION Scenarios Scientifically-driven Politically-driven The building process of the scenarios and the Territorial VISION should be cyclical and dynamic allowing various key-players to take an active part in the development and testing of the VISION and scenarios The Vision-scenarios iterative process Important to address key-values and policy goals at an early stage of the ET2050 project implementation process

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