1 On the Emergence of Social Conventions: modeling, analysis and simulations Yoav Shoham & Moshe Tennenholtz Journal of Artificial Intelligence 94(1-2), pp , July CSRG Presented by Souvik Das 11/02/05

2 Authors Yoav Shoham –Professor of Computer Science, Stanford University –AI, MAS, Game Theory, e-commerce – Moshe Tennenholtz –Professor of Industrial Engineering and Management at the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology –AI, MAS, Protocol evolution –

3 Definition Social Convention –Limiting agents’ choices to induce subgames –Such restrictions are social constraints, in cooperative games –When restrictions leave only one strategy for all agents it is a social convention

4 Three basic concepts Maximin –Guarantees highest minimal payoff –Rationality of other players or common knowledge may not be assumed Nash Equilibrium –No player deviates unilaterally from equlibrium solution without hurting his/her payoff –Common knowledge and rationality assumed Pareto Optimality –Joint action is pareto optimal if on increasing one agents payoff, another suffers

5 Coordination and Cooperation games Coordination –M= –Maximin gives –1 while the other two give 1 as payoff Cooperation –M= –Maximin and Nash give –2 but this is pareto dominated 1,1-3,3 3,-3-2,-2 1,1-1,-1 1,1

6 Motivation Under what conditions do conventions eventually emerge? How efficiently are they achieved? What are the different parameters affecting speed of convergence?

7 Game Model Symmetric Population size N >= 4 Each game 2 player 2 choice Typical coordination and cooperation games Payoff matrix M of each game g M = x,xu,v v,uy,y

8 Game model cont. Social law sl induces sub game g sl where g is the unrestricted game Rationality test of sl –Let V be the game variable used for determining rationality –Let V(g) denote the value of that variable in game g A rational social law with respect to g is –V(g) < V(g sl ) Note: Rationality here does not imply optimality

9 Example In coordination game, two possible rational social conventions with respect to maximin –Restriction on either one of the strategies In cooperation game, only one possible rational social convention with respect to maximin –Cooperate

10 The Game Dynamics N-k-g stochastic social game –Unbounded sequence of ordered tuples of k agents selected at random from given N agents –Random k agents meet repeatedly and play game g –In each iteration, action selection by agents are synchronous

11 Action Selection An agent switches to a new action iff total payoff obtained from that action in the last m >= N >= 4 iterations is more than the present action in same time period This action update rule called HCR or Highest Cumulative Reward Complicated weighted HCR rules based on simple HCR possible m puts finite bound on history

12 Theorem 1 Given a N-2-g stochastic social agreement game –For every ε > 0, there exists a bounded number Λ such that if the system runs for Λ iterations, probability that a social convention is reached is 1-ε –Once the convention is reached, it is never left –Reaching the convention guarantees to agent a payoff no less than the maximum value initially guaranteed –If social convention exists for g that is rational w.r.t maximin value then, then social convention will be rational w.r.t. maximin Corollary –HCR rule guarantees eventual convergence for coordination and cooperation social games, that is, rational convention

13 Theorem 2 Efficiency measured in terms of number of iterations T(N) required to get desired behavior T(N) = Ω ( N log N ) for any update rule R which guarantees convergence

14 Proof: Theorem 1 Case I: –Coordination games ( y > 0, u < 0, v < 0 ) Rational social convention will restrict all agents to similar strategy Pair of agents (i,j) with similar strategy meet together till all other agents forget their past i meets x (not equal to j) and then meets j. This step continues in loop till i meets all agents. If Λ = k g(N) f(N), then probability that convention not reached is e -k f(N) and g(N) bounded by an exponent of the form N s where s is a polynomial in m and N

15 Proof: Theorem 1 Case II: –Cooperation ( y 0 ) Similar structure of proof as Case I The major change is in the creation of a pair of cooperative agents Achieved by meeting a pair of agents till a pair of non- cooperative agents forget their past These historyless non cooperative agents meet till all other non cooperative agents forget their history Then they meet sequentially and convention is reached in similar way as coordination game

16 Proof: Theorem 2 Total number of permutations possible for choosing two players from N is N P 2 or N(N-1) Ways in which a particular player is chosen is N Probability of it not being chosen as player 1 or player 2 in 2 person game in one iteration is (1- 1/(N-1)) 2 Probability of player not being chosen for a stretch of T(N) = (N-1)f(N) games is (1-1/(N-1)) 2(N-1)f(N) which converges to e -2f(N)

17 Proof: Theorem 2 cont. Consider the random variable Y N (i) which contains the number of agents that did not participate in any of the i iterations E[Y N (T(N))] goes to 0 implies that convention established If e -2f(N) > 1/N, then E[Y N (T(N))] > 1, implying no convergence Therefore, for convergence, e -2f(N) < 1/N Taking natural log, f(N) > 0.5logN Thus, T(N) = Ω ( N log N )

18 Evolution of coordination: Experimental Results Coordination games achieve conventions rapidly with the HCR rule while cooperation games do not Parameters considered are –Update frequency How frequently an agent uses its action update rule HCR –Memory restarts Previous history forgotten, but current action retained –Memory window Previous m iterations in which agent participated versus previous m iterations regardless of whether the agent participated in those

19 Update frequency The efficiency of convention decreases as the delay in update increases

20 Memory Restarts With decreasing memory restart distance, convention evolution efficiency decreases

21 Memory Window Increasing memory size indefinitely is not helpful Old information not as relevant as new ones

22 Co-varying memory size and update frequency When update frequency drops below 100, it becomes better to use statistics of only last window than entire history When agents have update delays, they rely on old information Systems with large update delays should have frequent memory restarts

23 Convention Evolution Dynamics As the number of players remaining to conform to convention decreases, the rate of convergence slows down

24 Extended Coordination Game Symmetric 2-person-s-choice game where payoff x for both agents is greater than 0, iff they perform similar actions, and it is –x otherwise New update rule used in this case is External Majority or EM rule EM rule –Strategy i is adopted if it was observed in other agents more often than any other strategy –Reduces to HCR rule for s=2

25 Experimental results Addition of more potential conventions decreases the efficiency of convention formation by less than logarithmic fashion

26 General Comments These conventions are not necessarily Nash Equlibria Constraints are viewed as regulations laid down by central authority such as government If central authority present and is able to enforce certain rules, then they may as well enforce the efficient convention In proofs of theorems, statements are made without validation

27 Comments on Selection Rule HCR rule replaces the Best Response or BR rule used in evolutionary stable strategies and stochastically stable strategies Two important criteria for selection function are obliviousness and locality –Selection function is independent of identity of players –Selection function is purely a function of player’s personal history Obliviousness is similar to Young’s approach Young* uses BR which is global Rationale for using local update is that individual decision making usually happens in absence of global information Is HCR really local? * The Evolution of Conventions, H P Young, Econometrica, Vol 61, No. 1, (Jan 1993), 57-84

28 Comments on the Experiment It is not clear –How many agents play games in each iteration and how they are chosen –How does one ensure that a particular pair of agents play and the rest forget their play history in instances where the memory window is based upon the last m iterations in which the agents participated

29 Comparison with Young’s Work Model differences –BR vs HCR –Anonymity of history –Incompleteness of information measured by k/m ratio –A convention defined as state h consisting of m repetitions of a pure strategy which is an absorbing state –No central authority to dictate restrictions –Mistakes (deviation from rational behavior assumed) –Adaptive play’s incomplete sampling helps it to break out from sub optimal cycles –As long as m/k and k are large, for 2x2 games, stochastically stable equilibria is independent of m and k

30 Questions?