Fire, Fuels, and Aviation Leadership Oct 2006 Contemporary Suppression Strategies Photo By: Tom Iraci Can we reduce costs significantly by changing suppression strategies?

Magnitude of the Fire Season Nationally Photo By: Tom Iraci

1)Acres burned have risen by more than 8% per year; after adjusting for inflation; 2)NF suppression expenditures have risen by an annual rate of approximately 10%, slightly more than the rate of growth in acres burned; 3)Approximately 80 percent of the variation in expenditures can be explained by the variation in acres burned; 4)FS suppression expenditures per acre, after adjusting for inflation, have risen by approximately 1.5% annually, but the rate of increase is not statistically significant….kg/bb

1)Acres burned have risen by more than 8% per year; after adjusting for inflation; 2)NF suppression expenditures have risen by an annual rate of approximately 10%, slightly more than the rate of growth in acres burned; 3)Approximately 80 percent of the variation in expenditures can be explained by the variation in acres burned; 4)FS suppression expenditures per acre, after adjusting for inflation, have risen by approximately 1.5% annually, but the rate of increase is not statistically significant….kg/bb

Note: FY 09/10/11 are estimates; assumptions include 0.15% reduction/year in discretionary funding; flat WFPR appropriation; WFSU at 10 Year Moving average. Assumes $800 million WFSU for FY 07/08/09.

LF Costs Reserve Funds Changing the burden of increased Large Fire costs on Agency’s Budget Constrained budget Expected annual decline, 2.5% LF 10 year ave. >cost burden Time CurrentFuture IA Responsibility Interior Appropriations (Millions of Dollars) Known as Partitioning

Magnitude of the Season in PNW Peak Season Data Fire Fighters 20 Type 1 Crews 191Type 2 Crews 436 Engines 50+ Helicopters 10 Air Tankers 9 SEATs (Single Engine Air Tankers) 45 Team Assignments Photo By: Tom Iraci

Lets Talk More About Cost Significant Reduction In Expenditures Will Only Come With Major Shifts In Suppression Strategies And Taking Greater Risks, Which Will Require Broader Ownership Of Suppression Strategies Being Implemented. Photo By: Tom Iraci My Opinion

A Comment Regional Budget: $500 million 2006 Pre-Suppression & Suppression: $275 million Spent Within ~75 Days Seems Reasonable We Should Have Broader Ownership For How We Do This Work And Spend This Money. Photo By: Tom Iraci

Ownership Taking More Risk Means Local AAs Will Need Major Support, Even When Strategies Are Going Well. Region And WO Social/Political Administration There Will Be Increased Risk To: Local Revenue Sources Life And Property Habitat Due To Uncharacteristic (Intense) Fire Air Quality (Visibility And Health Affects) Political Stability for the Agency, And Perhaps Even To Higher Costs Photo By: Tom Iraci

Can We Shift Strategies? Bear Gulch II— Start 7/25/06 Point Protection Strategy Fire active for 45+ days 1,055 ac $1.8Million $1,700/ac Westside Fire Typically Costs $5,000-$6,000/ac. Photo By: Tom Iraci

Homes begin 80+% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% <5% 10-20% Staircase Ranger Station We Can Use Science To Help Validate Strategies and to Communicate to the Public

Can We Shift Strategies? Tatoosh Fire Start Date: 8/22/06 Monitor Strategy Fire Active for 22+ Days We had no Resources 54,000+ Ac $33,000 $1/ Ac Freezeout (2004) 838 Ac $2.5 Million $3000/Ac Photo By: Tom Iraci

Can We Shift Strategies? Blister Fire Start 8/11/06 Full Control Strategy Contained In 13 Days 735 Ac $4.8 Million $6,600/Ac Is Other Than Full Control Possible On The West Side? Photo By: Tom Iraci

Can We Shift Strategies? Tinpan Started July 8, 2006 WFU Fire Active 75+ Days 9,247 Ac $8.2 Million $886/Ac 7/9/06 7/24/06 Photo By: Tom Iraci

Can We Shift Strategies? Tripod Fire Combination Of Strategies Started 7/24/06 Active 60+ Days 175,000 Ac $83 Million $475/Ac (Fed) $1,000/Ac (State) Managing Fire In 100,000+ Ac Of Dead Trees is a Challenge. Will: More Patience, with A Contemporary Strategy And, Political Support Help Reduce Cost? One Of Many Similar 1,000 Ac. Columns Photo By: Tom Iraci

Management Efficiency Description #1 Better use, and allocation/reallocation, of FF resources. Currently, the dispatch and coordination system works on a 1 st come 1 st serve bases at the lower PL’s. Many times, more resources are ordered than are absolutely needed to manage a fire. This is a result of risk adverse management -- there is no incentive to take risks. Currently, the dispatch and coordination system works on a 1 st come 1 st serve bases at the lower PL’s. Many times, more resources are ordered than are absolutely needed to manage a fire. This is a result of risk adverse management -- there is no incentive to take risks. Fires that follow, which may actually have a higher priority, find themselves wanting for resources and perhaps resulting in high value losses and in the long run costing the American public more in suppression cost and resources losses. Fires that follow, which may actually have a higher priority, find themselves wanting for resources and perhaps resulting in high value losses and in the long run costing the American public more in suppression cost and resources losses.

Management Efficiency Description #2 Be more bold, and better utilize the full spectrum of AMRs! Be more bold, and better utilize the full spectrum of AMRs! Risk aversion is leading us away from lower cost suppression alternatives. Risk aversion is leading us away from lower cost suppression alternatives. We need to better utilize patience and ‘contemporary’ thinking when developing the AMR. We need to better utilize patience and ‘contemporary’ thinking when developing the AMR. Creativity and finesse are still missing when searching for the AMR. Creativity and finesse are still missing when searching for the AMR. AMR is still misunderstood. AMR is still misunderstood. Given the new planning rule, lack of national direction for FMP’s may limit AMR possibilities. Given the new planning rule, lack of national direction for FMP’s may limit AMR possibilities.

Management Efficiency Description #3 Standardization Standardization Equipment -- such as engines Equipment -- such as engines National Contract or agreement standards for FF resources National Contract or agreement standards for FF resources IT and Camp Support IT and Camp Support

Management Efficiency Description #4 Validate that the number and mix of our EU and CWN resources are appropriate, and identify the proper procurement method is used. Validate that the number and mix of our EU and CWN resources are appropriate, and identify the proper procurement method is used. A crew study done by the PNW Research station suggests that it is cheaper to use agency crews over contract crews if the utilization is high. A crew study done by the PNW Research station suggests that it is cheaper to use agency crews over contract crews if the utilization is high. Study utilization of both aerial and ground National FF resources to determine the appropriate mix of EU vs. CWN and agency crews vs. contract crews. Study utilization of both aerial and ground National FF resources to determine the appropriate mix of EU vs. CWN and agency crews vs. contract crews.

Rhetorical Questions Do We Want To: Have Broader Input And Ownership Of Suppression Strategies? Take Greater Risk To Try and Reduce Costs? “Beef-up” Our Initial Attack? Change How We Engage Our Social/Political Partners? Develop Training For Management To Design And Implement Contemporary Suppression Strategies? Change the way we tell the story about the good work we do to reduce cost? Photo By: Tom Iraci

Discussion Topics What is a ‘contemporary’ strategy? What are the risks associated with ‘contemporary’ suppression strategies? How do you plan for ‘contemporary’ suppression strategies? Including: Line Officers Public Political We are looking for a few ‘nuggets’ to help build and validate accountability, how we can measure our success, and better tell our successes.