Economic Overview for Rhode Island and the Region Robert Tannenwald, Director New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Presented.

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Overview for Rhode Island and the Region Robert Tannenwald, Director New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Presented to the Rhode Island House Speakers Economic Summit December 1, 2009 The views expressed in this presentation are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System.

Areas of Focus Unemployment, Employment and Overall Growth Housing Prices and Consumer Confidence New England Fiscal Situation

New England has been through rough times before……..

Boston Sports Index Index 1920=1 (Babe Ruth traded to the Yankees, the curse begins) Celtics Reign of Terror (57-69) Multiple Bruins and Celtics Championships Buckner! Patriots Super Bowl Wins Yankees win Game 7 ALCS with walk-off homerun Red Sox come back to beat Yankees in ALCS and win WS Red Sox 2007 WS Champs Pats 16-0 and no Super Bowl Notes: Red Sox given favorable weights. Celtics Champs Brady Out Bradys Back! Red Sox Playoff Loses

Areas of Focus Unemployment, Employment, and Overall Growth Housing Prices and Consumer Confidence New England Fiscal Situation

Unemployment rates have increased more rapidly in Rhode Island than the region or nation United States New England Rhode Island Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Percent Through Oct, 2009

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Rates

Year-over-year employment growth has fallen more sharply in Rhode Island than the region or nation Percent Change from Year Earlier United States New England Rhode Island Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Through Oct, 2009

NH ME RI US VT CT Through October 2009 MA Total Employment Index: Each states pre-recession peak is equal to 1. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

MYTH #1 Rhode Islands employees have not gained in productivity to the extent of their counterparts in Massachusetts and Rhode Island

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Index: Each states pre-recession peak is equal to 1. State Economic Activity Indexes MA RI NH VT ME CT Note: The economic activity indexes include four indicators: non-farm employment, the unemployment rate, average weekly hours worked in manufacturing, and wage and salary disbursements. The trend for each states index is set to match the trend for its gross domestic product (available annually). US Through Oct, 2009

Employment growth by industry: the pain is widespread Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Percent Change, October 2008 to October 2009

MYTH #2 Rhode Islands employment lags because, unlike in Massachusetts and other states, it hasnt kept up in education and health services

Areas of Focus Unemploment, Employment, and Overall Growth Housing Prices and Consumer Confidence New England Fiscal Situation

Foreclosure Rates Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Haver Analytics. Percent of loans with foreclosure initiation in quarter New England United States Rhode Island Through Q3, 2009

Foreclosures Initiated Percent of Total Mortgages Vermont Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Percent Through Q3, 2009

Housing prices rose more steeply in Rhode Island and New England than the U.S. and began to fall sooner United States New England Rhode Island FHFA Home Price Index Not Seasonally Adjusted, 1980 Q1 = 100 Percent Change from Year Earlier Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Through Q3, 2009

Housing construction: New England did not experience the same build-up as U.S. overall; Rhode Island fell earlier Index, June 1995 = 1 United States New England Rhode Island Single-Unit Housing Permits Authorized Through Sep, 2009

The slowing of the housing market is also evidenced by the drop in existing home sales Index, 1990 Q1 = 1 United States New England Rhode Island Source: National Association of Realtors. CT+ME+MA+RI Through Q3, 2009

Areas of Focus Unemployment, Employment, and Overall Growth Housing Prices and Consumer Confidence New England Fiscal Situation

After a few months of decline, prices are beginning to move upward again. United States Boston Area Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Percent Change from Year Earlier Consumer Price Index – All Urban Consumers Through Oct, 2009

Consumer confidence has fallen dramatically over the last year and a half and remains low, but appears to be on the rebound United States New England Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics. Index, 1985 = 1 Through Oct, 2009

Areas of Focus Unemployment, Employment and Overall Growth Housing Prices and Consumer Confidence New England Fiscal Situation

Source: New England Public Policy Center at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, based on monthly revenue statements from respective state revenue offices. Note: Revenue collections for FY10 are through October of 2009, except for Maine which only has released data on collections through September.

Myth #3 Rhode Islands governments arent slimming down as much as those of other states in the region

ADDENDUM Tax Burdens and Tax Climate