2006 Elections, Recent Public Opinion Findings By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s 2002 victory – the ascendance of ‘red’ Maryland over ‘blue’ 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s vote in 2006

Composite Picture – Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

Trends in Party Registration - Statewide 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages? Democratic defectors hold the key to Ehrlich success in 2002: All Rep and unaffiliated voters = Ehrlich ’02 vote = Democratic defections (and other party registrants): Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

Anne Arundel Only Results Exit Poll

2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates

2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results

How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages – Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Democratic defectors more numerous (17%) than Republican defectors (10%) Unaffiliated voted disproportionately for Ehrlich (54%) Party Registration EhrlichO’MalleyOthersDidn’t vote Cases Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated Other Elections: Party Defections – Govr’s Race Anne Arundel County Results How informed? Govr Cty Exec. Very5634 Somewhat3745 Not very721 Total100 Informed about Governor/County Executives Candidates’ Stands on Issues?

Anne Arundel Only Results Demographics of O’Malley Vote – Exit Poll 42% Overall 40% % African-Americans 45% % % % Whites 36% Men 49% Women 32% $75-110k 50% Postgrad 50% % % >$110k+ 49% <$50k 47% $50-75k 50% Some Coll. 38% Bachelor’s 36% HS or less

Anne Arundel County Only Results Demographics of O’Malley Vote – Exit Poll 42% Overall 65% Jewish 93% Strong Dem 78% Weak Dem 38% Independent 5% Weak Rep 60% “Other” 48% Protestant 46% “Non-practicing” 36% Catholic 27% Evangelical 2% Strong Rep

What issues were salient in Governor’s Race in 2006? Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Depends how you ask the question! Closed-ended: Economy -21% Education – 18% Taxes – 16% Crime - 13 Open-ended: Education – 18% Taxes – 8% Economy – 5% Crime -4% Issue Type of Poll - % Mentioning Closed-ended results by candidate IssueClosedOpenEhrlichO’Malley Economy Education Taxes Crime Growth Cost of living6350 Slots Healthcare Environment Work with legislature College tuition Nothing cited051 Total Elections: Govr’s Race – Issues in AA County

Type of Survey - % citing Closed-ended by candidate Traits OpenClosedEhrlichO’Malley Honesty, trustworthy All others Party Leadership, competence, has a plan Clear, straightforward, forthright Generally likeable character Persistent, consistent Right experience Past record Integrity/right moral outlook Overall beliefs Family man Understand the needs of others Works well with others Total 100 Traits Motivating Vote for Governor – Exit Poll 2006 Elections: Govr’s Race – Candidate Traits Motivating Voters in A A County

2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Council District

2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Only Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Countywide Races

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County More Voting Quirks: Republican % of Absentee/Provisional Ballots

2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results County Executive Results

Vote for County Executive/County Executive by Party RepublicansDemocratsDidn’t Vote EhrlichLeopoldO’MalleyJohnsonGovr.County Exec. Cases Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated Other Elections: Anne Arundel County Results More defections in County Executive race; unaffiliated voters move from Republican to Democratic support

Anne Arundel County Results Demographics of Johnson Vote – Exit Poll 49% Overall 41% % African-Americans 55% % % % Whites 50% Women/Men 39% $75-110k 54% Postgrad 50% % % >$110k+ 52% <$50k 60% $50-75k 55% Some Coll. 43% Bachelor’s 44% HS or less

Anne Arundel County Results Demographics of Johnson Vote – Exit Poll 49% Overall 60% Jewish 89% Strong Dem 79% Weak Dem 53% Independent 15% Weak Rep 56% “Other” 52% Protestant 66% “Non-practicing” 46% Catholic 28% Evangelical 12% Strong Rep

County Executive Candidates: Issues 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results

County Executive Candidates: Candidate Traits 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results

Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive by Candidate InfluenceOverallLeopoldJohnsonCases The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself Information from the Internet Literature received in the mail Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun Newspaper stories about candidate Conversations with friends or family I saw the candidate speak at a public forum Endorsed by some person or group I respect Paid ads in the newspapers Candidate’s name from signs along major roads Paid ads on TV I personally knew the candidate from church, civic/sports association, etc Elections: Anne Arundel County Results

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: Schools and Taxes Visions for Anne Arundel County Public Schools% I favor a school system which is absolutely top quality regardless of the cost. 50 I favor a school system which is of good quality but doesn’t increase my taxes. 36 Other volunteered answer7 No answer7 Total100 Support for Superintendent’s Request for a 17% School Budget Increase? Position% Fully fund this proposal by raising some County taxes.25 Fully fund this proposal by reducing other County services20 Partially fund this proposal to the extent possible without increasing taxes or reducing other County services. 43 Other volunteered answer6 No answer7 Total100

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: How to Pay for Looming County Expenses? ResponsePercent The county should pay for these expenses without raising any taxes or fees, even if it has to cut back on other public services 31 The county should pay for these expenses by a combination of cost reductions and tax increases 55 Some other volunteered answer8 No answer7 Total101 The County will be facing several budget challenges over the next few years including funding public schools, roads, changes in accounting rules, and increasing salaries to help recruit qualified government employees. Which of the following best reflects your views about how the County should deal with these challenges:

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: Taxes and Spending Balance Generally, do you trust the County to find the right balance between paying for these expenses and keeping taxes as low as possible?

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Heard about BRAC? Positive or Negative Impact? Since the Elections: BRAC

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 How to deal with influx of new workers and the demand for housing? Since the Elections: BRAC ResponseAgreeDisagreeNo Answer Make it possible to build new housing more quickly by reducing the time it takes to get building permits Increase the maximum number of units that can be built on land – for example allowing condominiums to be built instead of single family houses Focus on providing more resources to the redevelopment of older northern and western areas of the County Spend more on increasing public transportation to the area rather than improving the roads Increase impact fees so that new housing construction will help pay for new roads, schools and other services “Many of these new workers may seek to find housing in Anne Arundel County. Do you agree or disagree with the following proposals meant to accommodate such new workers?”

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: Various State and Local Legislative Proposals ProposalAgreeDisagreeNo answer Banning all roadside solicitation on County roads76213 Increasing the cigarette tax by one dollar to help pay for increasing health insurance coverage to the uninsured Banning smoking in all restaurants and bars68293 Forcing all new cars sold in Maryland to comply with California pollution standards Repealing the death penalty in Maryland33589

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: President Bush’s Job Approval

DEM Presidential Primaries: National Trends

DEM Presidential Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada

REP Presidential Primaries: National Trends

REP Presidential Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada

Presidential Primaries: Head to Head Match-ups Based on Zogby