Lloyd Wright Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit ( GTZ) GmbH Climate change and transport in developing nations

The transport sector and greenhouse gas emissions SectorPercent of total emissions Average growth rate ( ) Industry42%0.4 Transport26%2.4 Residential buildings20%1.0 Commercial buildings9%1.0 Agriculture3%0.8 Total100%1.0

Transport and the UNFCCC mechanisms ProgrammeTotal number of projects Number of transport projects Activities Implemented Jointly 186 projects0 projects Finland7 CDM projects 5 JI projects 0 projects Netherlands (ERUPT / CERUPT) 18 CDM projects 8 JI projects 0 projects World Bank (Prototype Carbon Fund) 9 CDM projects 4 JI projects 0 projects Global Environment Facility (GEF) (6 on fuel cells)

Framework for transport emissions Transport emissions per mode = Number of vehicles x Distance travelled x Emissions per vehicle distance travelled Mode share (behaviour) Land-use (urban form) Fuel efficiency (technology)  Land-use  Zoning  Route structure  Vehicle mgmt.  Fuel type  Propulsion system  Maintenance  Driver behaviour  Dedicated lanes  Dwell times  Affordability  Comfort  Convenience  Load factor  Safety  Security  Travel time

Mode share versus technology The impact of gaining one more bus load of passengers Assumptions: 120 passenger bus at 50% occupancy 5 people switching from autos, 35 switching from other motorised vehicles, and 15 switching from non-motorised transport Source: International Energy Agency, 2002 Bus equivalents

Conclusions of mode share vs. technology “Regardless of whether a bus is ‘clean’ or ‘dirty’, if it is reasonably full it can displace anywhere from 5 to 50 other motorised vehicles...” “Certainly, a cleaner bus will yield lower emissions, but in this scenario the emission reductions from technology choice are overshadowed by reductions from mode switching (and the resulting ‘subtraction’ of other vehicles)...Dramatic reductions in road space, fuel use, and most emissions can be achieved through displacing other vehicles with any bus, even the ‘Euro 0’ buses typically sold in the developing world.” Source: IEA, 2002

Bus rapid transit (BRT) Bus Rapid Transit € million / km Bus Rapid Transit is a mass transit system that mimics the rapidity and performance of metros but utilises buses rather than rail vehicles. Bogotá’s “TransMilenio” BRT system By 2015, TransMilenio will serve 5 million passengers per day over 388 kilometers of busways.

What do customers want? Courteous drivers Aesthetically-pleasing environment Rapid boarding Easy to understand maps Lighting and security

TransMilenio greenhouse gas reductions Avoiding the “leakage” of older vehicles by scrapping 7.0 to 8.9 older buses for every new articulated bus introduced  20% of TransMilenio users formerly drove private vehicles  Estimated greenhouse reductions for first 30 years of operation: million metric tons of CO 2 -equivalents

Complementary measures in Bogotá Ciclovía Sunday (120 km of car-free roadways) 250 km of high-quality cycleways World´s largest car-free weekday World’s longest pedestrian corridor Major effort to recuperate public space Restraints on car use

Bogotá’s global impact Cities with BRT projects in development Accra, Ghana Cape Town, South Africa Dakar, Senegal Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Beijing, China Delhi, India Hanoi, Vietnam Jakarta, Indonesia Guatemala City, Guatemala Lima, Peru Mexico City, Mexico Santiago, Chile

Replication Rouen, FranceNagoya, JapanBrisbane, Australia Curitiba, BrazilQuito, EcuadorTaipei, Taiwan

City transformations Seoul, South Korea

GTZ Sourcebook “Sustainable Transport: A Sourcebook for Policy-Makers in Developing Cities” Sample modules 1.Bus rapid transit 2.Non-motorised transport 3.Mass transit options 4.Bus sector reform 5.Mobility management 6.Inspection and maintenance 7.Air quality management

The path to sustainable transport 1. To date, the transport sector has played a surprisingly small role in mitigation efforts under the UNFCCC mechanisms. 2. The current focus on fuel switching has meant that transport measures are generally not cost competitive or realizable in the short term (e.g., fuel cells). 3. However, shifting mode share from private motorised vehicles to public transport and non-motorised transport can enable the transport sector to compete in mitigation efforts.