Is Transit Part of the Equation? Is Transit Part of the Equation? Travel Data Users Forum: How Will the Changing Cost of Energy Affect Personal Travel? Session 681 Wednesday, January 16, 2008, 10:15 AM - 12:00 PM, Hilton Steven E. Polzin, PhD CUTR, USF

Comments Historical & theoretical relationship between fuel price and transit use The availability and economics of shifting to transit Data for understanding fuel price and transit use Transit opportunities and challenges

Impact of Fuel Prices on Mode Choice Social, Political & Economic Conditions Fuel Price Fuel Supply Mode Choice Transit: Availability Cost Time Auto Travel Cost: Vehicle type Trip length Occupancy Public Attitudes: Climate change Energy Independence Environment

Observations: Research in 2007 established that for every 10% increase in gas prices, US transit demand has increased by around 1.2%, a cross elasticity of demand to gas prices (e) of 0.12 [2]. The same research demonstrated much higher effects on US light rail systems; e= 0.27 to 0.38 (i.e. between two and three times higher than aggregate values) while heavy rail values were e=0.17 and bus was insensitive (e=0.04). These patterns are clearly of much interest to transit planners, however a need for further research has been identified to explore causal patterns further [2]. Understanding Links Between Transit Ridership and Auto Gas Prices – US and Australian Evidence PAPER NUMBER Currie, G. and J. Phung, Transit Ridership, Auto Gas Prices and World Events – New Drivers of Change. Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Washington DC (Forthcomming), 2007.

8 Almost 50 % of households nationally live within 1/2 mile of a bus route

9 Approximately 10 % of the nation’s population lives within one mile of a rail station

10 About 50 % of households interviewed in the 1995 NPTS believed they lived within 1/4 mile from a public bus route (2001 NHTS)

11 About 60% of people work within one-half mile of a bus route

12 About 10% of the population works within one-half mile of a rail stop

How far can you drive on one “fare’s” worth of Gas?

Assuming $3 gas, 20 mpg efficiency, and $1.50 fares, commuters could travel10 miles for the cost of transit Thus 57% of folks would not save out of pocket costs on transit.

15 Fleet characteristics and related fuel costs are changing… Base: 2001 NHTS data and 2006 updated fuel costs

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY DATA BOOK: EDITION 26–2007 Table 2.13 Energy Intensities of Highway Passenger Modes, 1970–2005 Light trucks not shown.

17 Fuel use also varies by trip purpose…. Source: National Household Travel Survey Data Series (NHTS), FHWA

Challenges of Determining Fuel Price Impacts u Detailed analysis is only possible at local level and then may be impossible due to data/resource constraints. u Extremely difficult to factor out economic, service, fare, marketing, demographic or other confounding factors.

What Additional Data Would Help u Aggregate transit use data is old u APC data can provide more specific trip length data for analysis u A basis for normalizing to adjust for local fuel costs, population growth, service supply, fare levels, economic activity, etc.

Can Transit Secure an Efficiency Advantage? u New CAFE standards u Improving transit efficiency u Vehicle technology and fuel (vehicle life cycle) u Service speed u Service productivity u Matching vehicle/mode to market u Disciplining the provision of amenities

21 One last thing…How long will it take for standards on new vehicles to make an impact? The average vehicle is now nearly 9 years old Source: NHTS Data Series,

22 15 EPA MPGFord Explorer 23 EPA MPG Toyota Camry 26 with 2 Occ. Escalade 48 EPA MPGToyota Prius 2005 NTD data

23 Competition Will Change

24 Transit Must Be Faster CUTR analysis of 2001 NPTS data

25 Source: NTD Data, CUTR Analysis

26 Source: NTD Data, CUTR Analysis

27 Source: NTD Data, CUTR Analysis Passenger Miles Per Revenue Vehicle Mile

How Might Transit Deploy Resources to Respond to a Serious Price Increase or Shortage? u Deploy to longer/faster trips u Implement priority treatments u Build reserve fleets

29 Thank You