COSMO Annual Meeting September 2005 Zurich (Switzerland) Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Programme

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)2 The Network of Consortia HIRLAM Denmark*, Finland*, Iceland*, Ireland*,Netherlands*, Norway*, Spain*, Sweden* COSMO Germany*, Greece*, Italy*, Poland (Warsaw Branch), Romania, Switzerland* ALADIN Austria*, Belgium*, France*, Portugal*,Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary*,Moldova, Poland (Cracow Branch), Romania,Slovakia, Slovenia ALADIN – LACE Austria*, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary*,Slovakia, Slovenia UKMO United Kingdom* 26 NWS are Members of the SRNWP Programme * EUMETNET Member

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)3 SRNWP actions in progress SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations Model comparison New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)4 SRNWP actions in progress SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations Model comparison New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)5

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8 SRNWP actions in progress SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations Model comparison New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)9 Motivations The spatial density of the SYNOP precipitations is absolutely inadequate for the validation and verification of the very high resolution models Creation of a “data hub for the precipitation observations” as already done by EUMETNET at the Met Office for the radar and wind-profiler data (“one stop chop” strategy) In the future - still a lot of development work to do – high resolution precipitation data will also be used in the data assimilation process

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)10 Situation today in Europe Who is collecting today in Europe 24-hourly accumulated high-resolution precipitation observations? DWD (for Consortium COSMO) ECMWF (data from the Members) EU Project ENSEMBLES EUROGRID show-case (non yet accepted) Report in the SRNWP web site.

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)11 Candidates Two very good candidates: = DWD - Does already this work but for COSMO Members only = ECMWF - Receives the data from all the Members and associated Members and makes gridded analyses

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)12 SRNWP actions in progress SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations Model comparison New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)13 Reason At least 3 times – in Council or ICWED Meetings – our Directors have expressed the wish of a model comparison over Europe. It has to be cheap. Thus only main models will be compared: - LM (run by the DWD) - Aladin-France - HIRLAM (reference version at FMI) - UM (North-Atlantic / Europe version)

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)14 Facts Already today the Met Office compares daily the precipitations of these 4 models over Great-Britain (24-hourly accumulated) The Met Office has been chosen for this comparison as the work will consist for him of an extension of an already existing task: several of its tools will be used directly

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)15 Plan Verified will be from T+0 to T+48 at 6h intervals: - precipitations - mean sea level pressure - 2m temperature - 10m wind Scores for precipitations: - frequency bias - equitable threat score - log-odds ratio - Hansen-Kuipers skill score

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)16 Results and Costs Results Monthly mean statistics will be calculated and published on the Met Office external internet site under password protection Costs The costs that will be submitted to the EUMETNET Council will amount to the salary of a scientist for 9 months per year

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)17 SRNWP actions in progress SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations Model comparison New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)18 The SRNWP Workshops Variational Methods (Met Office) Nonhydrostatic Modeling (DWD) Numerical Techniques (Meteo-France) Soil data analysis and soil processes (INM/SMHI) Statistical and Physical Adaptation (ZAMG) Meso-scale verification (KNMI) Short-range EPS (UGM)

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)19 The 2004 SRNWP Workshops SRNWP Workshop on Mesoscale Verification June 2004, KNMI, De Bilt 40 participants HIRLAM/SRNWP Workshop on Soil Analysis and Soil Processes September 2004, SMHI, Norrköping 30 participants SRNWP / Met Office / HIRLAM Workshop on Variational Methods High resolution data assimilation: towards 1-4km resolution November 2004, Met Office, Exeter. 80 participants

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)20 The 2005 SRNWP Workshops SRNWP Workshop on Short-Range EPS 7-8 April 2005, UGM / ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna 80 participants SRNWP Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical Application 1-2 June 2005, ZAMG, Vienna 25 participants SRNWP Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Modelling "Convection resolving models" 31 Oct – 02 Nov 2005, DWD, Bad Orb (Probably participants)

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)21 Long life to COSMO with a lot of success!