Impact of Emissions on Intercontinental Long-Range Transport Joshua Fu, Yun-Fat Lam and Yang Gao, University of Tennessee, USA Rokjin Park, Seoul National.

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Presentation transcript:

Impact of Emissions on Intercontinental Long-Range Transport Joshua Fu, Yun-Fat Lam and Yang Gao, University of Tennessee, USA Rokjin Park, Seoul National University, Korea Daniel Jacob, Harvard University, USA Source-Receptor Modeling Studies Source-Receptor Modeling Studies 36 km domain 12 km domain

Downscaling effect to SR scenarios Downscaling effect to SR scenarios GEOS-Chem to CMAQ GEOS-Chem to CMAQ Regional impacts on both CMAQ 36km/12km domains Regional impacts on both CMAQ 36km/12km domains Beijing, Seoul, Shanghai, Taipei & PRD Beijing, Seoul, Shanghai, Taipei & PRD Seattle, Atlanta, Chicago, NYC, LAX & Denver (36km only) Seattle, Atlanta, Chicago, NYC, LAX & Denver (36km only) Examination of distance transport effect on receptors, East Asia and North America, using CMAQ 36km/12km domains Examination of distance transport effect on receptors, East Asia and North America, using CMAQ 36km/12km domains Examination of perturbation of outflow from East Asia due to emission increase Examination of perturbation of outflow from East Asia due to emission increase Summary Outline

Current Defined Experiments SR Global Model (GEOS-Chem) Reference simulation in 2001 and simulations reducing anthropogenic emissions by 20% in EU, NA, EA, and SA. SR3 - Anthropogenic NOx emissions reduced 20% SR6 - Combined reduction of anthropogenic emissions (NOx/ NMVOC/ CO/ SO2/ NH3/ POM/ EC) by 20% SR Regional Model (CMAQ) Using GEOS-Chem outputs as initial and boundary conditions e.g. SR3EU = Boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem (20% Anthropogenic NOx emissions from Europe) Average monthly (not hourly) GEOS-Chem outputs are used

GEOS-Chem Configurations Domain:Global Domain:Global Horizontal Grid Spacing:2 ° x 2.5° Horizontal Grid Spacing:2 ° x 2.5° Horizontal Coordinate:Lat x Lon Horizontal Coordinate:Lat x Lon Vertical Grid Spacing:30 layers Vertical Grid Spacing:30 layers Simulation Period:2001 Simulation Period:2001 Meteorological Input:GEOS3 Meteorological Input:GEOS3

Regional Modeling Configurations Features : Models-3/CMAQ One-Atmosphere (multi-pollutants) Modeling Features : Models-3/CMAQ One-Atmosphere (multi-pollutants) Modeling 2001 and 2006 January, April, July and October scenarios 2001 and 2006 January, April, July and October scenarios 12 & 36-km CMAQ Domain in Lambert Conformal projection East Asia and North America 12 & 36-km CMAQ Domain in Lambert Conformal projection East Asia and North America Model Setup : Model Setup : NASA’s TRACE-P and updated emission inventories and local emissions and GEIA/MODIS biogenic emission inventory NASA’s TRACE-P and updated emission inventories and local emissions and GEIA/MODIS biogenic emission inventory Emissions Processing: Spatial allocation (GIS/Gridding) and Temporal, speciation needed for the M3/CMAQ simulations Emissions Processing: Spatial allocation (GIS/Gridding) and Temporal, speciation needed for the M3/CMAQ simulations 14 vertical layers 14 vertical layers Meteorology : MM5 V3.7, AQM: CMAQ V.4.6 Meteorology : MM5 V3.7, AQM: CMAQ V.4.6 Chemical mechanism: CB-IV Chemical mechanism: CB-IV Initial and Boundary Conditions: GEOS-Chem Initial and Boundary Conditions: GEOS-Chem

EU SA EA Regional Modeling Receptor Domains:  East Asia (36km & 12km)  Continental USA (36km only) Model Domains & Scenario Matrix Regional Modeling Scenario Matrix:

Effect of Using Monthly Average O 3 value for CMAQ boundary condition (BC) From Continental USA domain 1)US standard Profile Boundary (fixed value) 2)GEOS-Chem Boundary (average hourly output) Monthly Average O 3 - JULY Time series of hourly O 3 - JULY Profile GEOS GEOSProfile Not much effect on Average O3 when using average monthly data. Time series data is needed This fixed value have very similar average as GEOS-Chem average Even hourly time-series show very little different in concentration if we use monthly average data as BC

Effect of Using Monthly Average O 3 value for CMAQ boundary condition (BC) – Cont Monthly Maximum O 3 - JULY GEOS Perturbation Profile

Downscaling Effects to SR Scenarios – East Asia Receptor GEOS-Chem – SR1 CMAQ 36 km – SR1 Monthly average O Concentration - JULY Monthly average O 3 Concentration - JULY Monthly Average O 3 Perturbation – JULY Average

Downscaling Effects to SR Scenarios East Asia Receptor – Cont GEOS-Chem CMAQ 36 km Monthly average O 3 Concentration – JULY SR1 Case Similar pattern is found between GEOS-Chem to CMAQ, GEOS-Chem shows about 5 to 10 ppbv different. This mostly is caused by different in emission inventory and meteorology CMAQ 12 km Monthly Maximum and Average O 3 Perturbation – JULY Maximun Average Maximum

Regional Modeling Receptor Domains:  Continental USA (36km only) – SR6EU  East Asia (36km & 12km) – SR3EU, SA & NA; SR6EU, SA & NA Regional Impacts on CMAQ 36km/12km domains Beijing Shanghai Wulumuqi PRD Chengdu Taipei Tokyo Seoul 12 km domain 36 km domain East Asia (36km & 12km) USA (36km)

Regional Impacts – EAST ASIA 12 km Resolution 12 km Resolution - Surface – Maximum Perturbation 12 km Resolution 12 km Resolution JANAPR OCTJUL Could up to 1.4 ppb Beijing could reach about 1 ppb different

36 km Resolution 36 km Resolution Surface – Maximum Perturbation 12 km Resolution 12 km Resolution

Regional Impacts – EAST ASIA – Cont 12 km Resolution – JULY SR1 - SR6EU 12 km Resolution – JULY SR1 - SR6EU  Upper layer has stronger O 3 transport than at the surface transport than at the surface 113º E 122º E 113º E 110º E Vertical Distribution – Max

Distance Effect on Receptor, East Asia 12 km Resolution – JULY SR1-SR6EU 12 km Resolution – JULY SR1-SR6EU 3D-Vertical distribution The latitude that separating the effect is at about 32 degree for EU

Regional Impacts – O 3 North America Vs. East Asia EA to NA Enhancement (SR1 - SR6EA) EA to NA Enhancement (SR1 - SR6EA) East Asia - AVERAGE North America - AVERAGE North America - MAX East Asia - MAX EA influencing NA is stronger than NA influence EA NA to EA Enhancement (SR1 - SR6NA) NA to EA Enhancement (SR1 - SR6NA)

EAST ASIA OUTFLOW STUDY NOx Emissions increase from 2001 to NOx Emission Zhang Q, et al. [Atmos. Chem. Phys, 2009]

2006 NMVOC Emission Zhang Q, et al. [Atmos. Chem. Phys, 2009] EAST ASIA OUTFLOW STUDY NMVOC Emissions increase from 2001 to 2006

Outflow due to emission change East Asia– Maximum in July 2001  Maximum O 3 outflow from EA can increase 4-8ppbv due to emission increase MAX JUL 2006 –JUL km to right boundary 504km 144km

Outflow due to emission change East Asia– Maximum in OCT 2001  Maximum O 3 outflow from EA can increase 4 ppbv due to emission increase MAX OCT OCT km to right boundary 504km 144km

Summary and future work The average IC/BC compared with hourly IC/BC have very little effect on simulation of average ozone concentration. The average IC/BC compared with hourly IC/BC have very little effect on simulation of average ozone concentration. Downscaling improves the maximum ozone perturbation. The value could reach as much as 1.6 ppb in difference, which is 3 – 5 times higher than the average value Downscaling improves the maximum ozone perturbation. The value could reach as much as 1.6 ppb in difference, which is 3 – 5 times higher than the average value For East Asia, Spring time shows the strongest perturbation response, compared with other seasons. For East Asia, Spring time shows the strongest perturbation response, compared with other seasons. Maximum O 3 outflow from EA can increase 4-8ppbv due to emission increase from 2001 to 2006, which may create more influence to North America Maximum O 3 outflow from EA can increase 4-8ppbv due to emission increase from 2001 to 2006, which may create more influence to North America  Summary  Future work Run 2006 GEOS-Chem, downscale to local scale and simulate the impact from East Asia to North America Run 2006 GEOS-Chem, downscale to local scale and simulate the impact from East Asia to North America

Thank you for your attention Questions?