64’th IHC, March William Lapenta,Naomi Surgi and Stephen Lord Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Linking The HFIP Community With NCEP/EMC Operations

64’th IHC, March Outline  The EMC Mission  Tropical Cyclone Elements of the NCEP Model Production Suite  Global Forecast & Data Assimilation System  Regional Hurricane Forecasting  Real-time Ocean Forecasting  HFIP Goals and Structure  Mapping NCEP/EMC Tropical Cyclone Modeling Priorities to HFIP/OFCM  Facilitation of R&D results into Operations

64’th IHC, March The National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC HPC SPC SWPC AWC OPC NHC NCO EMC

64’th IHC, March The EMC Mission…..  Develop and enhance numerical guidance –Test and improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model systems via Scientific upgrades Tuning Additional observations  Maintain operational model suite –The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems –Modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes  Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations –Transform & integrate Code Algorithms Techniques –Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation EMC location within the funnel In response to operational requirements:

64’th IHC, March Global Data Assimilation and Forecast Systems (GDAS/GFS) Horizontal Representation Spectral (spherical harmonic basis functions) with transformation to a Gaussian grid for calculation of nonlinear quantities and physics. Vertical Representation Sigma coordinate. Lorenz grid. Quadratic- conserving finite difference scheme by Arakawa and Mintz (1974). Vertical Resolution 64 unequally-spaced sigma levels. For a surface pressure of 1000 hPa, 15 levels are below 800 hPa, and 24 levels are above 100 hPa. 4 Cycles per day T382(~35km) to 7.5 days T190(~70km) to 16 days

64’th IHC, March NCEP’s Regional Hurricane Numerical Guidance GFDL  Movable nested  Air-sea coupled  Inner nest  9 km/42L  Specialized vortex initialization,  Upgraded with some GFS physics (2003, 2004) HWRF added in 2007  Based on NMM Dynamic Core  Movable, two-way nested grid 9km inner; 27km outer; 42 vertical layers; 75 x 75° domain)  Advanced physics (atmosphere/ocean fluxes; tested in GFDL - the "benchmark", NCEP GFS boundary layer and deep convection)  Advanced vortex initialization that uses GSI 3D-var (an advancement over GFDL bogus)  Princeton Ocean Model (POM) (with loop current initialization - same as GFDL)

64’th IHC, March RTOFS Provides: –Routine estimation of the ocean state [T, S, U, V, W, SSH] –Daily 1 week forecast –5 km coastal resolution –Initial and boundary conditions for local model applications Wave Modeling: –NOAA Wavewatch III –Global and Regional –Unified model approach Real Time Ocean Forecasting System and WAVEWATCH III

64’th IHC, March Unified NOAA approach to guide and accelerate improvements in forecasts, with emphasis on rapid intensity change, and reduction in uncertainty. Responds to input from stakeholders, NSB, OFCM, and HIRWG reports. Embraces strong collaboration with non-NOAA partners with objective to transition research into operations. HFIP Goals:  Reduce average track error by 50% for Days 1 through 5.  Reduce average intensity error by 50% for Days 1 through 5.  Increase the probability of detection (POD) for rapid intensity change to 90% at Day 1 decreasing linearly to 60% at Day 5.  Decrease the false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid intensity change to 10% for Day 1 increasing linearly to 30% at Day 5.  Extend the lead time for hurricane forecasts out to Day 7. The NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

64’th IHC, March Placing HFIP into the Funnel…. Role of the Teams and Leads Each year develop an overall plan for the team’s component of the HFIP Program  Needs to be coordinated with:  Other team plans  Across the various organizations (13 total) Role of Team lead  Provide summaries of progress  Lead the development of the program plan for the team  Lead the coordination across teams and organizations

64’th IHC, March )Improve performance of the HWRF regional system in support of TPC intensity forecasts {1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12}  Data assimilation and vortex initialization (B1)  Model physics (i.e., atm/ocean exchange) (B3)  Model dynamics (B2) 2)Improvement of the GFS to support longer range track forecasts {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14}  Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL (B2, B3a, B3c) Detrainment from all levels (deep convection) PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus)  Increase model horizontal resolution (T382 [~35km] to T574 [~28km]) (B2) 3)Improve performance of RTOFS and WAVEWATCH III™ {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14}  Waves as direct source to TKE in air and water (B3a, B3b)  Assimilation of JASON 2 data (B3b) NCEP/EMC HFIP FY10 Implementation Priorities NOTE: Brackets are NHC/CPHC priority operational needs Parentheses are model development research areas

64’th IHC, March  HWRF Development Areas {1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12}  pressure-wind relationship  initial conditions and data assimilation  atmospheric physics  coupling between atmosphere, ocean and wave components  testing of high resolution HWRF configuration  Diagnostic capability to guide future operational model development {3, 6, 7, 9}  GDAS/GFS development {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14}  Implement a 1/12 degree global RTOFS based on HYCOM {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14}  Develop operational hurricane ensemble capability {1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 14} NCEP/EMC HFIP FY10 & Beyond Development Priorities NOTE: Brackets are NHC/CPHC priority operational needs

64’th IHC, March NCEP Planned Hurricane Forecast System —Regional Component

64’th IHC, March Process to Implement Major Upgrades to The NCEP Model Production Suite EMC Change Control Board Scientific Integrity Product Quality EMC Mgmt Approval Implementation Phase SPA’s build NCO parallel from RFC’s 30-day NCO parallel  Test code stability  Test dataflow  Products to NCEP Centers and EMC code developers NCEP Centers  Evaluate impact  Assessments to NCEP OD R&D and Pre-Implementation Phase 30-day NCO parallel stable NCEP centers approve Briefing to NCEP Director for final approval Implementation Generate RFC’s Submit RFC’s to NCO

64’th IHC, March Apply Implementation Processes to GFS/GSI December 2009 Implementation… Adding new observation data sources.  Tropical storm pseudo sea-level pressure obs  NOAA19 hirs/4,AMSU-A, & MHS brightness temp obs  NOAA18 sbuv/2. Monitor N19 GOME, and OMI ozone (no assimilation)  RARS (currently only EARS) 1B data  EUMETSAT-9 atm motion vectors Implementing improved techniques in GSI analysis.  Use uniform thinning mesh for brightness temp data  Improvements to assimilation of GPS RO data (QC, retune ob errors, improved forward operator )  Add dry mass pressure constraint  Merge GMAO & EMC codes for 4d-var capability  Update background error covariance  Proper use of different spectral truncation between background and analysis Benefits  Improved GFS tropical storm track & intensity forecasts  Small improvement in global forecast accuracy

64’th IHC, March Time and Dedication for GFS/GSI December 2009 Implementation  17 months required to develop, test and implement  119 person months of effort (EMC, NCO, GFDL, TPC, SPC, HPC, AWC)  17 months of continuous cycles 4/day with 16 day forecasts retrospective/real-time testing conducted for GFS/GSI  500 HWRF and 600 GFDL TC/Hurricane cases simulated  1000 Node hours and 75 TB of disk consumed

64’th IHC, March DTC Purpose: To serve as a bridge between research and operations to facilitate the activities of both halves of the NWP Community  Research: functionally equivalent operational environment to test and evaluate new NWP methods over extended retrospective periods  Operational: benefits from DTC T&E of strengths and weaknesses of new NWP advances prior to consideration for operational implementation Research Community Operational Community New Science and Technology Operational Codes DTC NCAR RAL/MMM NOAA/ESRL/EMC The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) & HFIP….. EMC AFWA TPC

64’th IHC, March DTC Goals on Hurricanes Facilitate transfer of research to operations by creating a framework for NCEP and the research community to collaborate Support the community in using HWRF (the current NCEP operational hurricane model)  HWRF physics into WRF V3.2—plan to use for FY11 implementation  First HWRF Tutorial (Feb 24-26, 2010)  EMC/MMM/DTC Hurricane Workshop (Feb 22-23, 2010) Develop and maintain a hurricane testing and evaluation infrastructure at DTC  Operational perspective and expertise in residence (N. Surgi)  Share burden of pre-implementation testing  assure integrity of code and evaluate new developments for potential operational implementation Hypothesis: Higher probability of successful R&D transition into NCEP Operations

64’th IHC, March In Summary NCEP/EMC continues to build partnerships to satisfy customer needs (It’s a NWS Support Center) Tropical Cyclone Elements of the NCEP Model Production Suite  Global Forecast & Data Assimilation System  Regional Hurricane Forecasting  Real-time Ocean Forecasting Sytem NCEP/EMC providing TC modeling priorities and plans to the external community Facilitation of R&D results into operations through the DTC