Super-Regional Modeling Testbed to Improve Forecasts of Environmental Processes for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts Super-Regional Modeling Testbed to Improve Forecasts of Environmental Processes for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts Award Number: NA10NOS FY10 Budget: $4.0 M from US IOOS Office

Testbed Origin - FY10 IOOS Budget “$4,000,000 is for a competitive extramural regional test bed… to understand, predict, and mitigate the consequences of both extreme events and chronic conditions in the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf regions. Such a test bed should include no less than 20 academic partners and research institutions to guarantee… community-modeling”

Improving Forecasts of Coastal Environmental Processes Factors: Open boundary conditions, met and river forcing conditions, physics vs. parameterizations, data assimilation approach, amount of data assimilated, numerics, vertical and horizontal resolution, model coupling. “Which model is better?” is often not the right question. What factors in the simulation resulted in a better solution? How much better? At what cost? Improving cyberinfrastructure leads to greater access by more people, and leads to faster improvements

Defining Improvement To measure improvement for environmental processes, we need to define skill metrics for specific environmental processes and often for specific region Inundation, search and rescue, deep oil spills, navigation, hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, diver operations, ocean energy siting, beach erosion, regional impact of climate change, all require different skill metrics Operational centers need community help in this process – too broad for the National Backbone!

1.Develop skill metrics and assess models in three different regions and dynamical regimes 2.Build a common infrastructure for access, analysis and visualization of all ocean model data produced by the National Backbone and the IOOS Regions. 3.Transition models, tools, toolkits and other capabilities to federal operational facilities 4.Build stronger relationships between academia and operational centers through collaboration Testbed Goals

Testbed Management Testbed Advisory Evaluation Group Shelf Hypoxia Gulf of Mexico Estuarine Hypoxia Chesapeake Bay Cyber Infrastructure Coastal Inundation Gulf and East Coast IOOS Testbed Team Structure Rick Luettich, UNC-CHJohn Harding, MSU Carl Friedrichs, VIMS Rich Signell, USGS Eoin Howlett, ASA Don Wright, SURA Doug Levin, NOAA/IOOS Liz Smith, SURA 25 members 21 members 20 members 17 members 8 members

Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay Variations in river inflow have little effect DO has no correlation with stratification Simple 1 term model for DO works as well as watershed nutrient loading, 11 component, fully 3D water quality model Extent of hypoxia zone is strongly related to wind direction!

Shelf Hypoxia Successes Hypoxia code: Fennel ROMS => NOAA FVCOM (NOAA contact: Rich Patchen, CSDL) Consolidated multi-year hypoxia data set available for NOAA Hypoxia Watch Data Portal (NOAA contact: Scott Cross, NCDDC) Accelerated development of NOAA NCDDC OceanNOMADS capability as Navy “White Front Door” for archived operational ocean nowcast/forecast products (NOAA:Scott Cross) Supporting transition of U.S. Navy operational Gulf of Mexico regional ocean nowcast/forecast capability (NAVY: Frank Bub, NAVO)

Inundation Successes High quality grids, forcing, and extensive observational data for specific storms publically available for community testing Direct comparisons between operational inundation models (e.g., SLOSH) with academic community models Community building within research community by modeling groups working together Improved academic - government relationship through partnership

Skill metrics and identification of key performance factors and cost for three important dynamical regimes and environmental issues Foundation of a cyberinfrastructure framework for search, access and display of all Federal Backbone & RA model data, via browser and scientific desktop application CONOPS for transition from research to operations Improved communication between research and operations Testbed Year 1 Products

Skill metrics and identification of key performance factors and cost for three important dynamical regimes and environmental issues Foundation of a cyberinfrastructure framework for search, access and display of all Federal Backbone & RA model data, via browser and scientific desktop application CONOPS for transition from research to operations Improved communication between research and operations Testbed Year 1 Products We must still highlight key societal outcomes

Expand to more regions and more coastal issues Examine more factors (e.g. data assimilation approaches, model coupling) Build out the cyberinfrastructure (more functionality, toolboxes for other languages, web services, outreach, training) Find a way to sustain testbed activities Future Work for the Testbed