Bill Kuo DTC Management Board Meeting 17 th March 2011

Agenda Change of MB membership DTC AOP 2011 and Budget Options to accommodate potential shortfalls Looking ahead – AOP 2012 & beyond DTC MB/SAB Meeting in the fall of 2011

Change of MB membership Steve Koch will become the next Director of NSSL, and has stepped down from his position as the DTC Deputy Director for OAR and a member of MB, effective 16 th March Sandy MacDonald appointed Zoltan Toth as the Acting DTC Deputy Director and a member of MB, replacing Steve, until a new GSD Director is identified.

DTC AOP 2011 Draft Budget and Options

Introduction DTC prepared a DRAFT AOP 2011 and budget in January 2011 DTC AOP 2011 and budget were reviewed by DTC Management Board (MB) on Jan 2011 DTC MB recommended: Be prepared for a 5% reduction in the OAR DTC funding Do not spread the cuts across all tasks Protect high-priority areas: Tasks that are very close to demonstrating successful R2O (e.g., data assimilation and hurricane tasks) Enhance testing and evaluation activities recommended by the DTC Science Advisory Board (SAB). Don Berchoff asked DTC to prepare a strategy for additional 10% cut in OAR funding for AOP 2011 AFWA funding $275K less then requested – tasks under AFWA funding reduced to match actual funding Anticipate FY2012 budget will be even worse than 2011

AOP 2011 Budget Planning Assumptions SourceFunding (in K)Status OAR2,850Assumed 5% reduction AFWA564Confirmed (original request $839K) NCAR250Confirmed USWRP300Tentative (possible 10% cut) GSD250Tentative + additional SE support NSF100Submit proposal for DTC Visitor Program HFIP455Pending HFIP allocation decision Allocated NCAR carryover 61Confirmed Allocated GSD carryover 61Confirmed Total4,891

Changes in Tasks Generalized names for task areas to reflect focus area rather than specific software packages WRF  Mesoscale Modeling HWRF  Hurricane GSI  Data assimilation MET  Verification DET  Ensembles Incorporated work related to NEMS into appropriate task areas (Mesoscale Modeling and Ensembles) Incorporated work related to NOAA testbed collaborations (HMT and HWT) into appropriate task areas (Mesoscale Modeling, Verification and Ensembles) to ensure work undertaken through these collaborations contribute directly to the core DTC missions (a strong recommendation from the SAB)

AOP 2011 Tasks DTC Director’s Office Mesoscale Modeling Hurricanes Data Assimilation EnsemblesVerification DTC Visitor Program Testbed collaborations: HWT & HMT 1.DTC activities focused on five key areas: Mesoscale Modeling, Hurricanes, Data Assimilation, Ensembles and Verification. 2.HWT & HMT are cross-DTC special projects that contribute to identified focus areas.

Proposed AOP 2011 Budget Allocations (in K) TaskOAR*AFWANCARGSDNSFUSWRPHFIP** NCAR Carry- over GSD Carry- over Total Director’s Office $390-$150$ $640 Visitor Program $ $200 Mesoscale Modeling $826$87$50--$61---$1,024 Hurricanes$675--$100--$355$61-$1,191 Data Assimilation $177$231-$ $458 Verification$66$246$25--$188$100--$625 Ensembles$616-$25--$51--$61$753 Total$2,850$564$250 $100$300$455$61 $4,891 **Includes $100 K from HFIP for diagnostic toolkit (which is an additional task requested by HFIP in FY 2011)

Proposed AOP 2011 FTE Allocations Task Area Scientists/ Managers Software Engineers Admin Assistants StudentsTotal Director’s Office Mesoscale Modeling Hurricanes Data Assimilation Verification Ensembles Total

Funding allocation breakdown between NCAR and GSD (in K) TaskNCAR/JNTESRL/GSDTotal Director’s Office $526$114$640 Visitor Program $200- Mesoscale Modeling $978$46$1,024 Hurricanes $492$699$1,191 Data Assimilation $358$100$458 Verification $591$34$625 Ensembles $317$436$753 Total $3,464$1,429$4,891

Director’s Office: Proposed activities Internal Communication Implement tools to assist with task and staff coordination Provide a framework for cross-coordination between over-lapping activities of major task areas Coordinate strategic planning activities External Communication Continue making improvements to DTC website Host MB, EC & SAB meetings and keep open channels of communication DTC Visitor Program Host visitors for 5 funded projects Prepare a new AO & select next round of visitor projects Provide support for upcoming workshops and tutorials

Mesoscale Modeling: Community Support Proposed Activities Maintain/Enhance WRF regression testing* Continue on-going efforts in community support** Finish preparations of community-UPP software package for distribution* Extensively test, write documentation Provide community support upon release Anticipated major accomplishments WRF release (v3.3 April 2011)** Community-UPP version 1.0 release (April 2011)* Bi-annual WRF Tutorials (July 2011, January 2012)** Annual WRF Users Workshop (June 2011)* -in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

Mesoscale Model: Testing and Evaluation Proposed Activities Continue expansion of RC testing and evaluation Strengthen the foundation of DTC expertise with the NEMS software Co-host with NCEP a physics workshop for mesoscale modeling Use HMT-West research datasets to evaluate precipitation processes in operational and research models Prepare publications on DTC methodology and results from select test activities Anticipated major accomplishments New RC designations or retests, as appropriate Functionally equivalent operational environment for WRF-based systems established at the DTC to assess new NWP methods White paper outlining short-term and longer-term approaches for making significant progress toward improving physics parameterizations Manuscript(s) submitted to appropriate peer-reviewed journal

Hurricanes: Proposed Activities Continue HWRF community support. Continue HWRF code management, keeping the evolving community and EMC versions of HWRF connected. Upgrade DTC testing suite by adding HYCOM, UPP and ability to run high-resolution. Perform extensive testing of HWRF. Actual tests TBD - could include changes in resolution and/or alternate physics. Diagnostic activities: Evaluate HWRF to understand weaknesses and sources of error. Begin assembling a diagnostic toolbox for DTC and the community * * Pending HFIP funding.

Hurricanes: Anticipated Major Accomplishments DTC HWRF Test Plan, in collaboration with EMC and HFIP, describing plans for tests to be conducted by DTC in 2011 and a protocol for how future tests will be determined Hurricane Tutorial in April 2011 HWRF Reference Configuration Expanded WRF Community Code with addition of new developments for HWRF Expanded HWRF Testing infrastructure on jet with the addition of new components (HYCOM and high-resolution) Input to NCEP pre-implementation decisions through HWRF testing and evaluation at DTC

Data Assimilation: Proposed Activities Community Code Continue to provide support for Community GSI package Continue to maintain Community GSI repository Coordinate GSI Review Committee meetings and activities Test (and adjust if necessary) procedure for managing R2O transition with input from GSI Review Committee Testing and Evaluation Conduct extensive tests of end-to-end system for GSI baseline (including comparison with WRF-Var) Reassess the long term strategy for DA task

Data Assimilation: Anticipated Major Accomplishments GSI Community Code Annual Community GSI Tutorial/Workshop GSI v3.0 release GSI community contribution (R2O) procedure and implementation Testing and Evaluation Final report summarizing results of GSI and WRF-Var comparison experiments

Verification: Proposed Activities MET Support Semi-annual tutorials, expanded and improved MET Development Improved methods for verifying clouds Research on methods for verifying through time Improvements in ensemble methods in collaboration with DET, HWT, HMT, and HFIP Expanded capabilities of METViewer Prepare requirements document for tropical cyclone verification tools and develop software to meet basic requirements

Verification: Anticipated Major Accomplishments MET Support Improved Tutorials Demonstration of MODE enhancements for Atmospheric River verification with HMT. MET Development MET software release Improved ensemble, cloud, and time verification. METViewer database and display release Initial capability to verify hurricanes

Ensembles: Proposed Activities Perform testing and evaluation of cycling perturbations technique Contribute to next NCEP SREF implementation Establish the capability to run different versions of NMMB under NEMS Basic capability for model perturbation module Continue development of Ensemble testbed User Interface (EUI) Interface with NOAA Testbeds Evaluate HMT ensemble with a focus on hydrometeorological variables Evaluate HWT ensemble products and establish a basic capability for the product generation module based on the most promising techniques Continue to engage community by co-organizing the 5 th Ensemble User Workshop with NCEP

Ensembles: Anticipated Major Accomplishments Test results and software for cycling initial perturbations NMMB incorporated into DET under NEMS Improved Ensemble User Interface Report on HMT & HWT ensemble product evaluation Hydromet & hazardous weather forecast products Verification metric packages identified for hydromet & hazardous weather (in collaboration with HMT, OHD, NCEP, etc) Requirements and plans for the statistical post-processing, product generation, and verification modules based on community input at 5 th Ensemble User Workshop

DTC Organization & AOP 2010 Tasks DTC Director’s Office WRF WRF for Hurricanes GSIMETHMTHWTDETNEMS DTC Visitor Program WRF: WRF modeling system WRF for Hurricanes: HWRF, HFIP GSI: Grid-point Statistical Interpolation data assimilation system MET: Model Evaluation Tools HMT: Hydrometeorology Testbed collaboration HWT: Hazardous Weather Testbed collaboration DET: DTC Ensemble Testbed NEMS: NOAA Environmental Modeling System Two major functions of DTC: A.Provide support for community systems B.Conduct testing and evaluation of community systems for research and operations

DTC FY 2010 Budget Allocations (in $K) TaskNOAA Core HFIP USWRP AFWANCARGSDNSFTotal DTC Dir. Office Visitor Prog WRF support HWRF ,123 GSI MET HMT-DTC HWT-DTC DET651 NEMS173 Total2, ,071

Comparison of AOP 2010 and 2011 AOP 2010 TasksAOP 2010 Budget AOP 2011 TasksAOP 2011 Budget Director’s Office645Director’s Office640 Visitor Program200Visitor Program200 WRF698Mesoscale Modeling*1,024 HWRF1,123Hurricane1,191 GSI622Data Assimilation458 MET487Verification*625 DET651Ensembles*753 HMT323 HWT148 NEMS173 5,0714,891 *Tasks for which allocation is impacted by consolidation

HFIP Funding for DTC HFIP provided funding of $346K for DTC AOP The funds are used primarily to support the community use of the HWRF modeling system, verification system development, and HWRF testing and evaluation. For AOP 2011, we are requesting similar amount ($355K) for these tasks. In addition, HFIP asked DTC to take on the additional responsibility for: (i) assembling the diagnostic toolbox and (ii) making the diagnostic toolbox available to the community. We estimate the need for additional $100K for a diagnostic toolbox initial capability, which brings the total anticipated budget from HFIP to $455K.

Ensembles: Potential contributions to HFIP, NEXTGEN, & NUOPC Ensemble Testbed well positioned to contribute to multiple projects HFIP – Collaborative development of HFIP regional ensemble system Conduct periodic meetings with participants (up to 16 groups) Develop prototype ensemble system based on consensus Compile basic hurricane product generation algorithm package NEXTGEN – Regional ensembles for data cube Experimental real time CONUS SREF ensemble Embedded fine scale CONUS ensemble for Convective Initiation (CI) NUOPC – Support multiagency effort Assemble advanced statistical post-processing toolkit & datasets for testing DTC Ensemble Testbed’s potential roles Engage with / support community in prototype system development Testing & evaluation of prototype system Transition to operations (outyears)

Strategy for additional 10% reduction Additional 10% reduction in OAR funding would reduce the overall DTC budget by another $285K. DTC will accommodate this reduction by: Reducing community support for Mesoscale Modeling and Verification ($40 K). Reduce frequency of tutorials from twice to once per year Discontinue helpdesk support for NMM-E dynamic core Reducing OAR allocation for Visitor Program ($50K) This will likely reduce NSF’s corresponding contribution by $50K Slowing down Ensembles task ($110K) Slowing down Mesoscale Modeling & Hurricanes tasks ($85K)

AOP 2012 and beyond It is anticipated that FY2012 budget will be even worse. What are the options to accommodate difficult budgets? Seeking new funding opportunities: Within the main sponsors (NWS, OAR, AFWA, NCAR, NSF) DET can contribute to HFIP, NEXTGEN, and NUOPC External funding sources? There are possibility for external funding. But, this will come with hard deliverables and additional requirements. Focus DTC’s effort into a few key areas

Next DTC MB Face-to-Face Meeting Bill Lapenta suggested having a DTC MB solely focused on the outcome and accomplishments of DTC. Given the budget situation, it is difficult to have too many meetings. One possibility is to have the combined DTC MB/SAB meeting in the fall (September 2011) with expanded discussion on the outcome and accomplishments. Feedback from DTC MB and SAB will then be incorporated into AOP 2012.