Trends in Quantity of Political Advertising By Alyssa Ray.

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Presentation transcript:

Trends in Quantity of Political Advertising By Alyssa Ray

Has Political Advertising Increased or Decreased in Recent Years?

By the Numbers…. Congressional Elections Number of Ads Number of Times Aired *Source: Buying Time 2000 Executive Summary

By the Numbers… Independent Groups’ Ads Number of AdsCost (In Millions) *Source: Buying Time 2000 Executive Summary

Cost ( In Millions ) Year Total Spending on Political Media, by Candidates Total PresidentialSenateHouseGovernorsLocalIssues 2004 $2,681 $990$525$556$149$213$ $1,617 $0$278$293$752$141$ $1,205 $305$301$258$92$119$129 *Source: PQ Media

Trend Factors 1. Quantity of Advertising Sources 2. Start of Campaign 3. Quantity of Funds 4. Number of Candidates 5. Interest of Voters

Forms of Advertising Hypothesis 1: The more media outlets available for candidates, the more ads will be produced.

Forms of Political Advertising Newspaper/Print Media: (1704) Newspaper Ads, Flyers, Pamphlets. Radio: (1924) Campaign Speeches, Debates, Ads. Television: (1952) Spot Ads, Speeches, Debates, News Reports. Internet: (1990’s) Campaign Ads, YouTube, Websites, Speeches, Debates.

Cost ( in millions ) Year Total Spending on Political Media, by Medium Total (millions) Broadcast TV Direct MailPR/PromoRadioCableNewspapersOnlineOutdoorMagazines 2004 $2,681 $1,505$564$244$189$79$58$25$18$ $1,617 $912$335$128$155$35$34$5$15$ $1,205 $676$242$97$128$19$26$3$13$1 *Source: PQ Media

Start of Campaign Hypothesis 2: The earlier the entrance into the campaign, the more ads will be produced.

2000 Election vs Election )George W. Bush (R): 821 days before election 2000 Total Spending: $865.4 million, 71.8% of total expenses ) Duncan Hunter (R): 625 days before election 2) Mitt Romney (R): 622 days before election –Ads: 10,000 thus far: record breaking for one candidate 2008 Total Spending? *Source: Nielsen Market Research, PQ Media, TNS Media Intelligence

*Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus 2008 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN TELEVISION & RADIO SPOTS The Number of Television & Local Radio Ads (TV through-6/10/07, Radio 5/27/07) Candidate TV Total Nat'l Cable Local Radio Local TV Total IANHVTSCFLGAMIDCCA Mitt Romney (R)4, ,2522, Bill Richardson (D)2, , Chris Dodd (D)1,6644-1,6601, John Edwards (D) Duncan Hunter (R) Rudolph Giuliani (R) Total8, ,0208,2465,2921, *Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus

Quantity of Funds Hypothesis 3: The more money a candidate raises, the more ads will be produced.

Quantity of Funds

Democratic Candidates Candidate Home State Q2 Raised Q2 Spent Total Raised Total Spent Cash on Hand Debts Clinton, HillaryNY $27,021,358 $12,769,306 $63,075,927 $17,849,095 $45,226,832 $3,026,522 Obama, BarackIL $33,120,440 $16,042,388 $58,912,520 $22,648,832 $36,263,688 $922,848 Edwards, JohnNC $9,097,495 $6,485,422 $23,129,158 $9,785,203 $13,343,954 $333,586 Richardson, BillNM $7,090,278 $4,983,067 $13,339,633 $6,209,949 $7,129,684 $61,104 Dodd, ChrisCT $3,280,384 $4,384,580 $12,076,091 $5,697,820 $6,378,271 $0 Biden, JoeDE $2,451,180 $2,517,654 $6,461,745 $3,691,828 $2,772,442 $0 Kucinich, DennisOH $757,035 $707,653 $1,117,566 $902,355 $213,269 $0 Gravel, MikeAK $130,510 $99,866 $238,745 $207,604 $31,141 $64,716 Democratic Fundraising 2008

Republican Candidates Candidate Home State Q2 Raised Q2 Spent Raised Spent Cash on Hand Debts Romney, MittMA $20,997,715 $20,739,814 $44,432,350 $32,310,796 $12,121,554 $8,945,028 Giuliani, RudyNY $17,599,292 $11,222,806 $35,629,265 $17,303,045 $18,326,220 $0 McCain, JohnAZ $11,591,044 $13,071,657 $25,328,694 $21,926,631 $3,224,428 $1,783,523 Brownback, SamKS $1,425,767 $1,798,493 $3,321,965 $2,861,729 $460,236 $0 Paul, RonTX $2,369,453 $539,517 $3,009,997 $655,142 $2,354,855 $0 Tancredo, TomCO $1,466,188 $1,474,791 $2,807,879 $2,209,606 $598,451 $15,000 Hunter, DuncanCA $814,417 $874,042 $1,352,941 $1,140,014 $212,927 $0 Huckabee, MikeAR $765,873 $702,622 $1,310,753 $873,584 $437,169 $31,045 Thompson, TommyWI $486,555 $504,631 $890,398 $768,750 $121,648 $127,434 Republican Fundraising 2008

Regulations 1. Source Requirements: Who May Fund? Politicians’ funding, government, donations from individuals, interest groups, etc. Online (YouTube)? 2. Disclosure Requirements: Of Advertisers Explain to FEC (Federal Election Commission) 3. Sponsorship Requirements: What Advertisers Can Say Self-Promotion vs. Candidate Focus (1934) “Equal Time Provision” of Communication Act Federal Regulations on $ Given to Candidates

Number of Candidates Hypothesis 4: The more serious candidates in the race, the more ads will be run.

Number of Candidates Increase in number of serious candidates running for office (Includes Republicans, Democrats, Green, Independent, Libertarian, etc.) –1980: 10 –1984: 11 –1988: 19 –1992: 14 –1996: 14 –2000: 15 –2004: 17 –2008: 47* *Source: politics1.com informtaion

Interest of Voters Hypothesis 5: Due to the increase in candidates (Hypothesis 4), more ads are run in order to grab viewers attention.

Interest of Voters Candidate Awareness: 3-4 ads weekly Messages Retained: –Empty Field: 6-7 ads weekly –Crowded Field: ads weekly *Source: J.M. Hutchens The Manship School guide to Political Communicating

Conclusions : Increase in money, increase in ads present: HUGE increase in money spent on ads, but percentage wise, less focus on the quantity of ads themselves. IN GENERAL: Increase in money!