Rise and Shine Quiz 3 Meteorology 415

What are the ‘probable’ causes of the two boundaries seen on this visible satellite picture from last Thursday ?

Causes of the boundary (1 then 2)? A) lake breeze and old frontA) lake breeze and old front B) wind shift and old frontB) wind shift and old front C) wind shift and ridge convectionC) wind shift and ridge convection D) old front and wind shiftD) old front and wind shift E) developing cold frontsE) developing cold fronts

Answer: C – wind shift and ridge convection

williamsport Meteorology 415 – Fall 2012 Third Forecast Review

Williamsport Population (2009) Total29,304 Density 3,456.3/sq mi (3,456.3/km 2 )

Williamsport - OBS KIPT Z 13003KT 10SM CLR 27/19 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP114 T = KIPT Z 13003KT 10SM CLR 27/19 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP114 T = KIPT Z 11005KT 10SM FEW040 29/20 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP107 MDT CU N T = KIPT Z 11005KT 10SM FEW040 29/20 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP107 MDT CU N T = KIPT Z VRB04KT 10SM FEW040 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP101 MDT CU N T = KIPT Z VRB04KT 10SM FEW040 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP101 MDT CU N T = KIPT Z 15005KT 10SM TS SCT040 27/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSB20 FQT LGTICCCCG NW= KIPT Z 15005KT 10SM TS SCT040 27/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSB20 FQT LGTICCCCG NW= KIPT Z 19007G15KT 10SM TS BKN040 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSB20 SLP102 FQT LGTICCCCG NW T = KIPT Z 19007G15KT 10SM TS BKN040 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSB20 SLP102 FQT LGTICCCCG NW T = KIPT Z 18006KT 10SM BKN043 BKN050 OVC100 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSE50RAB31E50 SLP101 MDT CU ALQDS P0000 T = KIPT Z 18006KT 10SM BKN043 BKN050 OVC100 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSE50RAB31E50 SLP101 MDT CU ALQDS P0000 T = KIPT Z 16006KT 10SM TS BKN045 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSB03= KIPT Z 16006KT 10SM TS BKN045 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSB03= KIPT Z VRB06KT 10SM TS BKN042 27/20 A2985 RMK AO2 TSB03 SLP105 T = KIPT Z VRB06KT 10SM TS BKN042 27/20 A2985 RMK AO2 TSB03 SLP105 T = KIPT Z 21005KT 10SM -TSRA SCT050 BKN075 BKN100 23/19 A2986 RMK AO2 RAB44 SLP110 FQT LTGICCCCG NW P T = KIPT Z 21005KT 10SM -TSRA SCT050 BKN075 BKN100 23/19 A2986 RMK AO2 RAB44 SLP110 FQT LTGICCCCG NW P T = KIPT Z 35004KT 8SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 23/19 A2989 RMK AO2 FQT LTGICCCCG P0002= KIPT Z 35004KT 8SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 23/19 A2989 RMK AO2 FQT LTGICCCCG P0002= KIPT Z 16007KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2988 RMK AO2 TSE25B27 P0002= KIPT Z 16007KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2988 RMK AO2 TSE25B27 P0002=

Williamsport - OBS KIPT Z 21005KT 10SM -TSRA SCT050 BKN075 BKN100 23/19 A2986 RMK AO2 RAB44 SLP110 FQT LTGICCCCG NW P T = KIPT Z 21005KT 10SM -TSRA SCT050 BKN075 BKN100 23/19 A2986 RMK AO2 RAB44 SLP110 FQT LTGICCCCG NW P T = KIPT Z 35004KT 8SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 23/19 A2989 RMK AO2 FQT LTGICCCCG P0002= KIPT Z 35004KT 8SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 23/19 A2989 RMK AO2 FQT LTGICCCCG P0002= KIPT Z 16007KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2988 RMK AO2 TSE25B27 P0002= KIPT Z 16007KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2988 RMK AO2 TSE25B27 P0002= KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2989 RMK AO2 TSE25B27 SLP119 FQT LTGICCCCG N-E P0002 T = KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2989 RMK AO2 TSE25B27 SLP119 FQT LTGICCCCG N-E P0002 T = KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM OVC055 21/20 A2990 RMK AO2 TSE0055RAE0055 LTG DSNT N-E= KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM OVC055 21/20 A2990 RMK AO2 TSE0055RAE0055 LTG DSNT N-E= KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2989= KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2989= KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM OVC055 21/20 A2990= KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM OVC055 21/20 A2990= KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM BKN027 OVC050 22/20 A2991 RMK AO2 TSE0055RAE0055 LTG DSNT N-E= KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM BKN027 OVC050 22/20 A2991 RMK AO2 TSE0055RAE0055 LTG DSNT N-E= KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM OVC027 22/20 A2990 RMK AO2 TSE0055RAE0055 SLP122 LTG DSNT N-E T = KIPT Z 00000KT 10SM OVC027 22/20 A2990 RMK AO2 TSE0055RAE0055 SLP122 LTG DSNT N-E T = KIPT Z AUTO 34004G14KT 10SM BKN030 21/17 A2994 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N-SE PRESRR= KIPT Z AUTO 34004G14KT 10SM BKN030 21/17 A2994 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N-SE PRESRR= KIPT Z AUTO 05006KT 10SM BKN032 21/17 A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N-SE SLP T = KIPT Z AUTO 05006KT 10SM BKN032 21/17 A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N-SE SLP T = KIPT Z AUTO 36003KT 10SM TS SCT038 BKN050 BKN080 21/16 A2992 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND E AND SW TSB52RAB36E47 SLP128 P0000 T = KIPT Z AUTO 36003KT 10SM TS SCT038 BKN050 BKN080 21/16 A2992 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND E AND SW TSB52RAB36E47 SLP128 P0000 T = KIPT Z AUTO 27007KT 2SM +TSRA FEW023 BKN045 OVC060 19/17 A2995 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S RAB48 SLP139 P0013 T = KIPT Z AUTO 27007KT 2SM +TSRA FEW023 BKN045 OVC060 19/17 A2995 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S RAB48 SLP139 P0013 T = KIPT Z AUTO 09009KT 10SM -TSRA FEW023 BKN045 BKN060 19/17 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS PRESFR P0001= KIPT Z AUTO 09009KT 10SM -TSRA FEW023 BKN045 BKN060 19/17 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS PRESFR P0001= KIPT Z AUTO 09009KT 10SM -TSRA FEW023 BKN045 BKN060 19/17A2991= KIPT Z AUTO 09009KT 10SM -TSRA FEW023 BKN045 BKN060 19/17A2991= KIPT Z AUTO 03004KT 10SM CLR 19/17 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE42RAE08 SLP125 P T = KIPT Z AUTO 03004KT 10SM CLR 19/17 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE42RAE08 SLP125 P T = KIPT Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM VCTS SCT041 18/17 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB19= KIPT Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM VCTS SCT041 18/17 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB19= KIPT Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM VCTS BKN043 19/17 A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB19E36B42= KIPT Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM VCTS BKN043 19/17 A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB19E36B42=

Williamsport - obs KIPT Z AUTO 16003KT 10SM VCTS OVC045 19/17 A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB19E36B42 SLP131 T =KIPT Z AUTO 16003KT 10SM VCTS OVC045 19/17 A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB19E36B42 SLP131 T = KIPT Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT060 SCT075 19/18 A2990 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND NW TSE53 SLP123 T =KIPT Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT060 SCT075 19/18 A2990 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND NW TSE53 SLP123 T = KIPT Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM CLR 18/17 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP126 T =KIPT Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM CLR 18/17 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP126 T = KIPT Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 18/17 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP125 T =KIPT Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 18/17 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP125 T = KIPT Z 00000KT 5SM BR FEW005 17/17 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP131 T =KIPT Z 00000KT 5SM BR FEW005 17/17 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP131 T = KIPT Z 00000KT 7SM SCT005 18/17 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP T $=KIPT Z 00000KT 7SM SCT005 18/17 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP T $=

Williamsport– surface map

Williamsport – upper air

williampsort - satellite

Williamsport - satellite

Willamsport – anticipated radar

williamsport -radar

Williamsport radar

williamsport- verifications

Williamsport- scores

williamsport – lessons learned Be careful when a jet streak is predicted to cross a weak surface pressure field where it is marginally unstable.Be careful when a jet streak is predicted to cross a weak surface pressure field where it is marginally unstable. Look at the details of surface pressure and wind field to determine possible convergence zones.Look at the details of surface pressure and wind field to determine possible convergence zones. Remember that morning low clouds will delay the normal diurnal cycle.Remember that morning low clouds will delay the normal diurnal cycle. Nocturnal convection, especially after midnight, may inhibit the formation of fog – even after some rain due to a developing subsidence inversion.Nocturnal convection, especially after midnight, may inhibit the formation of fog – even after some rain due to a developing subsidence inversion.

williamsport – lessons learned

Applied forecast Risk of Delay

Applied forecast If delayed – for how long?

Applied forecast Alternate Solution

View at 9am

Weekly winners

Applied forecast The Minnesota Twins are hosting the Kansas City Royals at 8:05pm LDT. The teams’ PR department is planning to give away a helium filled balloon to all attendees to be released simultaneously after the national anthem provided that the wind is not from the south-southwest at more than 10mph as this would carry the balloons into the path of helicopters spraying at Columbia Park.The Minnesota Twins are hosting the Kansas City Royals at 8:05pm LDT. The teams’ PR department is planning to give away a helium filled balloon to all attendees to be released simultaneously after the national anthem provided that the wind is not from the south-southwest at more than 10mph as this would carry the balloons into the path of helicopters spraying at Columbia Park.

Applied forecast What do you expect the winds to be at 01z?What do you expect the winds to be at 01z? A) at 15ktsA) at 15kts B) at 15ktsB) at 15kts C) at 10ktsC) at 10kts D) at 10ktsD) at 10kts E) at 5ktsE) at 5kts