Project Title: Using Risk Analysis to Assess the Value of Improved Biosurveillance December 1, 2014: Henry H. Willis (PI and Transition Lead) Raffaele Vardavas Shoshana Shelton David Manheim

2 Project Objectives: Research Goals –Develop a framework for evaluating benefits of improved biological surveillance –Develop risk and decision analysis tools to help NBIC leadership decide how to improve DHS capabilities to inform decisions about both whether to issue warnings and how to respond to incidents, given the dynamic and deeply uncertain decision context. –Conduct pilot analyses that demonstrate and evaluate how the tools can be used as part of the NBIC planning, programming and budgeting decisionmaking process. Research Transition Goals –Develop briefings and documentation to support training of NBIC and other US government personnel on how to apply and use the framework and tools produced –Coordinate with S&T/ASOA (POC Brian Green) and SPAR (Debra Elkins) about potential use of modeling to support IILCM Bio Pilot or other ways the study could be extended.

3 DHS Interest and Motivation: Why is DHS interested? –Need to understand how best to protect DHS workers and communities during disease outbreaks or bioattacks –Need to prioritize spending on programs to improve data or analysis to support decisionmaking Who at DHS are your contacts? –Steve Bennett and Julie Waters, DHS-NBIC –Tim Lant, DHHS-BARDA

4 Potential non-DHS Stakeholders: Who else (operators/customers) could be interested in your research transition? –Other parts of DHS-OHA being contacted by Julie Waters –DHHS ASPR in office of Nicole Lurie –CDC (to be determined) –CBP OFO (being contacted by DHS-OHA)

5 Interfaces to Related Research Who else is working on this? –Adam Rose Interfaces with others in this field? –Mark Roberts, UPMC MIDAS Center –Tim Lant and colleagues at DHHS-BARDA

6 Research Technical Plan: Finalize documentation of value-of-information tool applied to DHS workforce protection case study Extend analysis and generalize to other contexts –Focus on travel restrictions –Extend to other dimensions of infectious disease events –Incorporate more advanced modeling through collaborations with UPMC MIDAS center –Extend results to include costs related to repeated warnings and fear

7 Research Transition Plan: Develop and deliver training to DHS OHA on use of biosurveillance analysis Extend awareness of tool and approach across DHS-OHA with Julie Waters Extend awareness of tool and approach across DHHS-BARDA and other parts of ASPR with Tim Lant

8 Milestones and Schedule/Timeline: Value-of-information analysis tool (delivered September 2014) On-going project outreach briefings across DHS OHA, DHS CBP, and DHHS (on-going in coordination with Julie Waters) Documentation and paper describing tool and its application (March 2015) Working paper on bioterrorism response context (March 2015) Develop initial prototype of bioterrorism risk analysis tool (June 2015)