State Farm’s Dangerous Intersections Initiative John Nepomuceno, P.Eng., MBA International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems August 2002 Orlando, Florida

Outline Study objectives and strategies Data sources Results Next steps 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Road-related causes account for approximately 35% of crashes Causes of crashes Driver 57% Road 3% Vehicle 2% 27% 6% Road-related causes account for approximately 35% of crashes 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Under-reporting of crashes Reporting threshold Rear-end PDO crash during rush hour Frequency Fatal-DUI, single-vehicle run-off road crash Increasing severity Engineering Enforcement (click – red and blue bar) If you could sort all crashes by increasing severity, from the least severe on the left to the most severe on the right, (click – yellow curve on a chart) the distribution of crashes looks something like this. The least severe crashes of course would represent the highest number of crashes while the most severe crashes represent the least number. (click - green text box on the lower left) Your typical rear-end crash during rush hour that results in property damage only (PDO) is here. These are the kinds of crashes that Engineering is more likely to prevent. Improving coordination, signal timing or road surface friction may help reduce these low severity crashes. (click - green text box on right) On the other hand, your typical single vehicle fatal crash that results from a DUI is here. These kinds of crashes are the kind that Engineering can do less to prevent and which Enforcement may be more effective. (click – green text box, upper right) A reporting threshold means that crashes on the left, the kinds of crashes that Engineering is probably the most effective in mitigating, are never reported to the police and therefore also the public agency. And with police agencies being continuously asked to do more with less, the pressure to go to a higher reporting threshold will result in less complete crash data. 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Minimum Reporting Thresholds Injury 2 Towaway 1 Between $2000 and $3000 1 Between $1000 and $2000 18 Minimum Reporting Thresholds Between $750 and $1000 Between $500 and $750 5 Between $250 and $500 18 Between $0 and $250 5 No reporting 1 Number of states (incl. D.C.) 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Dangerous Intersections Initiative Goal: To reduce the frequency and severity of crashes at high-crash locations and raise public awareness about the risks of everyday driving Strategies: Use own claims data to identify crash-prone locations around the country Provide funding to improve intersection safety Use the popular media to raise awareness And so State Farm established the DI Initiative in 1999. Its goal is to reduce the frequency and severity of crashes and raise public awareness about the risks of everyday driving. Its strategies: To use our own data to identify crash-prone locations, To provide funding to improve intersection safety, and, To use the popular media to raise awareness. 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

State Farm Insurance Detailed cost information on vehicles Largest claims database in the country In 1998, our research databases were amended to include a location field Date, time and “facts-of-loss” fields Enter State Farm. We have detailed cost information on vehicles and to a lesser extent, injuries. As the largest insurer, we also have a large claims database. In 1998, our research databases were amended to include the location field, which combined with the date, time and “facts of loss” fields allowed us to prioritize intersections according to our customers’ loss experience. What we did was identify those crashes that were the fault of drivers insured by State Farm. We then assigned an index to each crash that reflects the severity of the crash – a crash that results in property damage only is given a low index, while a crash that results in injuries and significant property damage results in a high index. We would then sum the indices of the crashes for each intersection and factor the that number by our market share in the area – the implicit assumption being that State Farm drivers are no more or no less likely to be involved in a crash at that site than any other driver. 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Dangerous Intersections Initiative Sorted according to location field Frequency-based; claim frequencies factored up to reflect market share locally Location confirmed against facts-of-loss data In 1999, limited to 1 year of data; 2 years in 2001 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

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Dangerous Intersections Initiative Rates vs. Collision Frequency Intersection volume data is not consistently available throughout the country Prioritization based on rates would increase work at least ten-fold Collision rates often result in low volume roads being prioritized Collision frequency is easier to convey to public 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Dangerous Intersections Initiative Better business case for State Farm Insurance premiums are a function of frequency and severity of crashes Frequency x severity = # policyholders x premium 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Dangerous Intersections Initiative Crashes Volume c2 v2 AR1 = c1/v1 AR2 = c2/v2 AR1 > AR2 c1 v1 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Dangerous Intersections Initiative Identified Top 10 nationally Provided up to $20,000 for a study For Top 10 nationally, $100,000 for improvements 1999 - 172 locations identified 2001 - 224 locations identified 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Evolution since 1999 Crash index – weighted score to reflect higher severity Two years of data (1999 and 2000) Assistance from the Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety Advance contact to notify affected communities 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

State Farm Danger Index No Injury Injury No Property Damage 7 Low PD (<$1,675) 1 8 High PD (>$1,675) 6 13 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Results Communities representing 92 of the 172 locations identified in 1999 applied for and received grants Received approximately grant applications representing 120 of the 224 intersections named in 2001 We have about 60 of the 92 studies in hand and we are presently looking at whether improvements were implemented based on these studies and if enough time has elapsed to conduct a post-improvement evaluation. We’ve also received approximately 120 applications from the 224 intersections that were identified. 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Next Steps Conduct an E-B evaluation of those intersections that were studied and improved in the 1999 Initiative (Q4 of 2002) Support national initiatives in intersection safety Support research initiatives in highway safety In 2002, we will conduct an evaluation of those intersections that were improved from the 1999 DI Initiative. We will also continue to support national initiatives in intersection safety. State Farm is represented on the ITE Committee on Engineering Safer Intersections to Prevent Red Light Running. State Farm also contributed a grant to ITE in support of the National Workshop on Intersection Safety held last month in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Finally, we will continue to support initiatives in highway safety. We are also represented on the Transportation Research Board Subcommittee to develop the Highway Safety Manual. 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Final Words Traffic engineering can be very effective in reducing crashes There is often less data available to those who can make a difference The data that is available may be biased towards higher-severity crashes 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Final Words Last year, SF lost more than $5B Need to do what we can to reduce the frequency and severity of crashes Auto insurance is becoming commoditized Raising rates is an unattractive alternative To remain competitive, we must do more to manage losses Traffic engineering can be very effective in reducing crashes 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems

Contact Information John Nepomuceno, P.Eng., MBA State Farm Insurance Companies Bloomington, IL 61710-0001 Tel: (309) 763-5706 John.Nepomuceno.LUJD@statefarm.com 28th International Forum on Traffic Records & Highway Information Systems