Research Program Overview From the University of California, Davis H2H2

STEPS Program Goals & Objectives The overarching goal of the program Develop methods that allow for robust comparisons of different fuel / vehicle pathways. The objectives of the program are  Comparative analysis research. Conduct independent, interdisciplinary research on multiple pathways  Knowledge dissemination. Communicate research to sponsors, scientific community, and policy makers  Education. Educate next generation of engineers, scientists, business and policy decision-makers

Addressing Transportation Energy Challenges Transportation Efficiency Vehicle fuel economy Congestion relief Road design Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Reduced Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Carpooling Mass transit Urban design Alternative Fuels & Vehicle Technology Hydrogen Biofuels Electric drive vehicles Advanced ICE engines Low-carbon liquid fuels STEPS Focus Climate change, Air quality, Energy security, Peak oil

Research Scope: Cross Comparisons HYDROGEN Fuel Cell Vehicles H2-ICE Vehicles Project Areas: Markets, Infrastructure, Lifecycle Analysis, Policy, Vehicle Technology BIOFUELS Bio-ICE Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles ELECTRICITY Battery-electric Plug-in hybrids FOSSIL FUELS Business as usual Low-carbon cases

HydrogenBiofuelsElectricityFossil Fuels Markets and Behavior Infrastructure System Analysis Energy, Environ., & Cost Analyses Policy and Business Strategy Vehicle Performance Evaluation Integrative Scenarios Continuing hydrogen research - ; Existing experience at UC Davis - ; Potential new research - Research Scope: Project Areas

3 Levels of Comparative Analysis Characterize future scenarios and opportunities Integrate a broader range of factors and interactions Apply consistent metrics of comparison Comparison Metrics System Integration Transition Analysis

“Silver Bullet” Theories There is no such thing as a “silver bullet” or one answer for the transportation energy challenges The real comparative questions are:  What are viable near-term solutions?  What are viable long-term solutions and what commitment is needed now?  How can near-term solutions leverage long-term solutions?  Which solutions work well in tandem given there won’t be one answer?  What policy and/or market signals are needed to move society in this direction? STEPS will address this with independent research

Research Approach Develop analysis tools with ability for cross comparison Publish research and present findings; Make assumptions public and visible Independent research projects, but with requirement that they incorporate cross-comparison aspects Integrative Scenarios thread will study the combined perspective, and will incorporate results and themes from the independent projects

Unique Aspects of STEPS Comparative & Interdisciplinary analysis Strong analytic capacity for integrative research Leverage from other energy research at UC Davis Active engagement with policy development at the state and federal level Research consortium, good relationship with sponsors

Program Sponsorship Energy Industry BP Chevron Shell Hydrogen PG&E TOTAL Automotive Industry BMW DaimlerChrysler Ford General Motors Honda Nissan Subaru Toyota Volkswagen Government Caltrans NRCan US EPA US DOE US DOT

Consortia Based Funding Consortium structure developed over the last 10 years at ITS Allows for great flexibility in research structure  One can “jump in” to a research topic, rather than changing scope of contract  Facilitates interaction amongst varying industries Sponsor contribution leverages all other sponsors in the program – i.e. research dollars are multiplied by 20X

Sample STEPS Projects Consumer behavior Thread  What is the consumer response to fuel economy?  Vehicle demonstrations  Meaning of “green” Business Strategy and Policy Thread  Study of business adaptation under particular transition pathway, and the policy that will encourage that change  Incentives for firms under and LCFS

Sample Projects, Con’t Vehicle Design Thread  Development of cross-comparison simulation tools  Detailed cost analysis / predictions for advanced vehices Infrastructure System Analysis Thread  Builds on H2P research  Spatial analysis, build-out scenarios  Modeling, analysis of infrastructure across varying pathways, including analysis of existing infrastructure

Research Projects, Con’t Energy, Environmental, and Cost Analysis  Lifecycle Emissions Model (LEM) The Lifecycle Emissions Model (LEM) calculates lifecycle emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse-gases from a wide range of fuels, vehicles, materials, and transportation modes.  Lifetime social cost and energy-use model (AVCEM) The Advanced Vehicle Cost and Energy-Use Model (AVCEM) calculates the lifetime private and social cost of a wide range of advanced alternative-fuel and electric vehicles.  Social-cost calculator (SCC) The Social-Cost Calculator (SCC) calculates the external and social costs of transportation plans involving gasoline and diesel trucks and buses.

Research Projects, Con’t Integrative Scenarios Thread  Large-scale, broad scope models  Analysis of LCFS impact  Will study many different options to achieve LCFS goal of reduced carbon impact

Research Area Leadership Hydrogen Joan Ogden Biofuels Bryan Jenkins Electricity Tom Turrentine Fossil Fuels Cynthia Lin Demand and Behavior Ken Kurani Infrastructure System Analysis Chris Yang, Yueyue Fan Energy, Environ., & Cost Analyses Mark Delucchi Policy and Business Strategy Chris Knittel Vehicle Performance Evaluation Andy Burke Integrative Scenarios Marc Melaina Tracks Threads Threads: “Cross-Comparison” Focus Tracks: “Interdisciplinary” Focus

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