Russia: Where is it Heading? A C G, Philadelphia Klaus Segbers, FUB/ CU 27. November 2007

Content 1New Context of IR 2Russia 3(Joint) Issues

1.1 The New Anarchy We do live in volatile times. Global politics and events are disorderly, chaotic, hard to comprehend. And hard to predict. Why is that so?

1.2 New Global Context There is a substantially new, changing global landscape: no East-West Conflict, no Bipolarity, globalization, erosion of the Westphalian system. This explains the impression of disorder. And it constitutes a challenge for all of us, particularly for experts and decision makers.

1.3 Dimensions of IR/ GP Financial markets: Flows of capital between state- and non-state actors. Economy: new forms of transport, flows of goods, services, and people. Communication: Flows of content (information and entertainment). (Un)security: Conflicts about resources, culture and identities. Attempts to regulate these flows and trends... U.N., Doha, post-Kyoto (Bali), Schengen,...

1.4 Actors in Global Politics Many more than ever before. Related to state, market, and society. Governments, IO’s, INGO’s, TNC’s, networks, individuals, media,... Problems for defining”national interests”.

2.1Russia: the Public Debate According to the papers and TV, it is about lack of democracy/ sliding back to autocracy (which is bad), dependency of economic take-off on oil (which is bad), non-cooperation internationally (which is bad). This kind of interpretation is too narrow, and at least partly wrong.

2.2 Russia: Structural factors Post-Soviet traumata and worries Transformation incl. nation building Effective integration into a non-geopolitical, but globalizing world Abundant energy resources Cultural patchwork Uncertain southern dimension

2.3 Economic Achievements/ Problems Property rights, banking, few soft budget constraints, no virtual economy, less (but still strong) dependency on cheap energy (and exports), Stabilization fund, etc. Defining remaining monopolies/ state champions, subsidies for consumers, railways, pipelines, etc.

2.4 Social achievements/ problems So far no major disruptions, emerging middle groups/ classes, consumer orientation, stability orientation, human capital development Brain drain, cultural cleavages, crisis of values, wealth distribution/ forgotten places, access to electronic flows, etc. Domestic stability: regional, social and cultural cleavages, avoiding fragmentation

2.5 Political achievements/ problems Broader space for political activities than in Soviet times, broader spaces for information, parties, emerging civil society Narrowing of political spaces, of public discourses, of self-assured atmosphere, nervousness, imitating roles Finding a new power/ saturation balance/ equilibrium after elections

2.6 Russia: Global Issues Realistic global integration, self- assured, not nervous Keeping a secular orientation, joint position vs. terrorism Finding a role in/ with Europe (energy, Armaments limitations/ regulation, CFE, ABM, NGOs,...)

3General: Goals and issues Strengthen EU Strengthen inter-, transnational institutions (climate, trade, security, migration,...) Manage U.S. decline Manage China rise Keep secularism by all means

the end...

1.3 Globalization G. is an objective process, rather than a program. It modifies the meaning of borders. It makes governments weaker. It produces loss of control. It generates new actors and nodes, flows.

2.1 Germany: Structural factors Difficult to make statements for „Germany“. Role of trade >>> stability Role of energy imports >>> stability Meaning of „civilian power“ >>> institutions Role of historical contingencies for current politics >>> integration, institutions

2.2 Germany: Issues Europe (procedures/ institutions) Europe (stability, possibly further enlargement later) Europe (trade, currency, migration,...) Modified role in IR/ UN sec-council Peace-keeping, trade, climate as issues