Our goal is not to amass information or to satisfy curiosity, but rather to become painfully aware, to dare to turn what is happening to the world into our own personal suffering and thus to discover what each of us can do about it. Laudato si, 30.

Water: the new gold

Access to safe, drinkable water is a basic and universal human right, since it is essential to human survival and, as such, is a condition for the exercise of other human rights.’ Laudato si, 30. Unusual in being italicised. Pope Francis also alerts us to the danger of multinational business taking control of water.

Laudato si, Chapter 1 (II), 27-31

Water is the new gold: Global consumption is doubling every 25 years

Every year 80 million extra people need water – as supply shrinks By 2050: By 2050: – India will have 563 million more people – India will have 563 million more people – China will have 187 million more people – China will have 187 million more people – Pakistan will have 200 million more people (one of the world’s most arid countries, with 141 million today) – Pakistan will have 200 million more people (one of the world’s most arid countries, with 141 million today) – Egypt, Iran, Mexico: 50% population increase in each – Egypt, Iran, Mexico: 50% population increase in each

A water-challenged world 400 of China’s 600 cities are in severe drought. The same is true of 22 countries in Africa. In Mexico City and Arizona there is no water left. If things go on as they are, by 2025 two-thirds of the world will have little water.

Four themes … 1. Melting glaciers 1. Melting glaciers 2. Rivers running dry 2. Rivers running dry 3. Falling water tables 3. Falling water tables 4. Facing up to water scarcity 4. Facing up to water scarcity

All the region’s major rivers originate in the Himalayas Indus Indus Ganges Ganges Mekong Mekong Yangtze Yangtze Yellow river Yellow river

Melting in this area will alter the hydrology of several Asian countries Pakistan Pakistan India India China China Bangladesh Bangladesh Thailand Thailand Viet Nam Viet Nam Nepal Nepal Less snow melt during the summer dry season to feed rivers could worsen the hydrological poverty already affecting so many in the region Less snow melt during the summer dry season to feed rivers could worsen the hydrological poverty already affecting so many in the region

This links water to climate change: and emphasises the urgency of cutting carbon emissions

2. Rivers running dry

30 million people Colorado Utah Wyoming New Mexico Arizona Nevada California

The Aral Sea

Coastal towns are now as much as 50km inland

A thriving fishery has been destroyed

China’s Yellow River

One example among many: the Yellow River The Yellow River ran dry for the first time ever in WHY? The Yellow River ran dry for the first time ever in WHY? Climate change in part … Climate change in part … … but largely because of upstream diversions for industry, cities and irrigation … but largely because of upstream diversions for industry, cities and irrigation … e.g. Hohhot, Lower Mongolia’s capital; and Taiyuan, the capital of Shanzi province, which has 4 million people and where water is rationed … … e.g. Hohhot, Lower Mongolia’s capital; and Taiyuan, the capital of Shanzi province, which has 4 million people and where water is rationed …

Shandong produces one-fifth of China’s corn … and one-seventh of its wheat It is more important to China than Iowa and Kansas together are to the US

Half of Shandong’s irrigation water comes from the Yellow River … Half of Shandong’s irrigation water comes from the Yellow River … … the other half from an aquifer that is shrinking by 1.5m a year. … the other half from an aquifer that is shrinking by 1.5m a year. One day the Yellow River may never reach Shandong. One day the Yellow River may never reach Shandong. NO WONDER THERE ARE SLEEPLESS NIGHTS IN THE CORRIDORS OF CHINESE POWER … NO WONDER THERE ARE SLEEPLESS NIGHTS IN THE CORRIDORS OF CHINESE POWER …

The Nile whose water must be shared not just between provinces, but countries

It hardly ever rains in Egypt: nearly all its water comes from the Nile

The Nile Egypt has to import 40% of its grain today Egypt has to import 40% of its grain today Tomorrow? Tomorrow? Its population will double from 68 to 114 million by 2050 Its population will double from 68 to 114 million by 2050

Sudan Sudan’s water needs will also double to 64 million by Sudan’s water needs will also double to 64 million by At present Ethiopia only uses a tiny fraction of the Nile’s water. This will change. At present Ethiopia only uses a tiny fraction of the Nile’s water. This will change. All three countries need to stabilise their populations or they will be trapped in hydrological poverty. All three countries need to stabilise their populations or they will be trapped in hydrological poverty.

The River Ganges

If India were to use all the water it wanted, the river might not even reach Bangladesh during its dry season There is, fortunately, a treaty governing flow

3. Falling water tables The 3 billion people to be added to world population by 2050 will be born in countries already facing water scarcity. The 3 billion people to be added to world population by 2050 will be born in countries already facing water scarcity. 40% of world food supply comes from irrigated land (diesel and electric pumps). 40% of world food supply comes from irrigated land (diesel and electric pumps). Water scarcity in the future will mean food scarcity. Water scarcity in the future will mean food scarcity.

Depleted aquifers Overpumping takes water faster from the aquifer than it can be replaced by precipitation. Overpumping takes water faster from the aquifer than it can be replaced by precipitation. Overpumping is now widespread, especially in China, India and the United States. Overpumping is now widespread, especially in China, India and the United States. These three countries account for nearly half the world’s grain harvest. These three countries account for nearly half the world’s grain harvest.

Bottled water In 2002 world sales of bottled water totalled $35 billion … … and only one in ten of these plastic bottles gets recycled.

Closer to home … The water in half of all Group Schemes is contaminated. The water in half of all Group Schemes is contaminated. Water Framework Directive: Water Framework Directive: good water status to be returned to all surface waters and groundwaters by good water status to be returned to all surface waters and groundwaters by 2015.

Irrigation stanchions watering asparagus in an arid climate

The Southern Great Plains Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas The Ogallala Aquifer

… A fossil aquifer with little recharge The irrigated area shrinks as the Ogallala is depleted Overall grain production is expected To drop by 17%

4. Facing up to water scarcity Worldwide the annual overpumping of aquifers uses up 160 billion m 3 of water: Worldwide the annual overpumping of aquifers uses up 160 billion m 3 of water: … the equivalent of 160 million tons of grain … the equivalent of 160 million tons of grain = half the entire U.S. grain harvest = half the entire U.S. grain harvest

This would feed 480 million people (average world grain consumption is just over 300 kg per person per year) This would feed 480 million people (average world grain consumption is just over 300 kg per person per year) In other words: 480 million of the world’s 6.7 billion people are being fed with grain produced with the unsustainable use of water In other words: 480 million of the world’s 6.7 billion people are being fed with grain produced with the unsustainable use of water … with water that belongs to our children … with water that belongs to our children

The economics of water: rising affluence generates additional demand for water. Why? Because a diet rich in livestock products requires four times as much grain per person as a rice-based diet in a country like India. This means four times as much water is needed.

The world’s fastest-growing grain import market North Africa and the Middle East including Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and countries eastward through Iran.

Virtually all these countries are simultaneously experiencing water shortage and rapid population growth

A downward spiral … Ever-growing demand for water for expanding cities and growing industry satisfied by diverting water from irrigation. Ever-growing demand for water for expanding cities and growing industry satisfied by diverting water from irrigation. The loss in food production capacity is then offset by importing grain from abroad (because every ton of grain imported is = 1,000 tons of water saved). The loss in food production capacity is then offset by importing grain from abroad (because every ton of grain imported is = 1,000 tons of water saved).

The water needed to produce the grain and other foodstuffs imported into North Africa and the Middle East in 2000 was roughly equal to the annual flow of the River Nile …

i.e. another Nile flowing into the region in the form of imported grain

South-east Australia 2008: after 6 years of drought, sheep wander the plains looking for something to eat …

What must be done Halt overpumping and stabilise water tables Halt overpumping and stabilise water tables It cannot be done all at once, in one step It cannot be done all at once, in one step … because the world grain harvest would fall by 160 million tons (8%) and grain prices would go through the roof … because the world grain harvest would fall by 160 million tons (8%) and grain prices would go through the roof BUT THE LONGER COUNTRIES DELAY IN FACING THE ISSUE, THE WIDER THE WATER DEFICIT BECOMES AND THE GREATER THE EVENTUAL ADJUSTMENT WILL BE. BUT THE LONGER COUNTRIES DELAY IN FACING THE ISSUE, THE WIDER THE WATER DEFICIT BECOMES AND THE GREATER THE EVENTUAL ADJUSTMENT WILL BE.

Governments in water-short countries must act to stabilise population and raise water productivity or their water shortages will soon become food shortages

There is the frightening possibility that the rising grain import needs of water-short countries will overwhelm the export capacity of grain-surplus countries. There is the frightening possibility that the rising grain import needs of water-short countries will overwhelm the export capacity of grain-surplus countries. This would destabilise world grain markets. This would destabilise world grain markets. Falling water tables in China could soon mean rising food prices for the entire world. Falling water tables in China could soon mean rising food prices for the entire world.

When the rivers run dry. What happens when our water runs out by Fred Pearce Eden Project Books, 2006

Buy this book. Read it. Open your eyes.

Our goal is not to amass information or to satisfy curiosity, but rather to become painfully aware, to dare to turn what is happening to the world into our own personal suffering and thus to discover what each of us can do about it. Laudato si, 30